The DOI matches its Crossref record; 19 of the 19 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Alzheimer disease in the United States (2010–2050) estimated using the 2010 census
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVES: To provide updated estimates of Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia prevalence in the United States from 2010 through 2050. METHODS: Probabilities of AD dementia incidence were calculated from a longitudinal, population-based study including substantial numbers of both black and white participants. Incidence probabilities for single year of age, race, and level of education were calculated using weighted logistic regression and AD dementia diagnosis from 2,577 detailed clinical evaluations of 1,913 people obtained from stratified random samples of previously disease-free individuals in a population of 10,800. These were combined with US mortality, education, and new US Census Bureau estimates of current and future population to estimate current and future numbers of people with AD dementia in the United States. RESULTS: We estimated that in 2010, there were 4.7 million individuals aged 65 years or older with AD dementia (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.0-5.5). Of these, 0.7 million (95% CI = 0.4-0.9) were between 65 and 74 years, 2.3 million were between 75 and 84 years (95% CI = 1.7-2.9), and 1.8 million were 85 years or older (95% CI = 1.4-2.2). The total number of people with AD dementia in 2050 is projected to be 13.8 million, with 7.0 million aged 85 years or older. CONCLUSION: The number of people in the United States with AD dementia will increase dramatically in the next 40 years unless preventive measures are developed.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“As the U.S. population ages, the number of people with Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) is rapidly increasing,1,2”
From Review of Artificial Intelligence for Clinical Use in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (2026) · cites this paper as [1]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Sex is an important factor that contributes to the clinical and biological heterogeneities in Alzheimer’s disease (AD)”
From Sex-specific DNA methylation differences in Alzheimer’s disease pathology (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“The aging of the baby-boom generation will significantly increase the number of people in the United States with Alzheimer's.70”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [70]
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“The aging of the population, including the baby‐boom generation, will significantly increase the number of people in the United States with Alzheimer's dementia.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [78]
The check wasn’t confident either way, so it gives no verdict — never disputed.
In the citing paper
“Of all AD patients in the United States, around two-thirds are women [2].”
From Sex specific molecular networks and key drivers of Alzheimer’s disease (2023) · cites this paper as [2]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
The check wasn’t confident either way, so it gives no verdict — never disputed.
In the citing paper
“Almost two-thirds of AD patients in the U.S. are women [2]”
From Sex-specific DNA methylation differences in Alzheimer’s disease pathology (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
McKhann, G., Drachman, D., Folstein, M., Katzman, R., Price, D., & Stadlan, E. M. (1984) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.34.7.939 · Cited by 27,915
Statistical Analysis With Missing Data
Lahiff, M., Little, R. J. A., & Rubin, D. B. (1989) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2289883 · Cited by 17,385
Statistical Analysis with Missing Data
Little, R. J. A., & Rubin, D. B. (2002) · Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics · doi:10.1002/9781119013563 · Cited by 8,473
Alzheimer Disease in the US Population: Prevalence Estimates Using the 2000 Census
Hebert, L. E., Scherr, P. A., Bienias, J. L., Bennett, D. A., & Evans, D. A. (2003) · Archives of Neurology · doi:10.1001/archneur.60.8.1119 · Cited by 2,168
Self-citationPrevalence of Dementia in the United States: The Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study
Plassman, B. L., Langa, K. M., Fisher, G. G., Heeringa, S. G., Weir, D. R., Ofstedal, M. B., Burke, J. R., Hurd, M. D., Potter, G. G., Rodgers, W. L., et al. (2007) · Neuroepidemiology · doi:10.1159/000109998 · Cited by 1,932
Brookmeyer, R., Gray, S. G., & Kawas, C. H. (1998) · American Journal of Public Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.88.9.1337 · Cited by 1,802
2005 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
(2016) · Cited by 1,241
Missed and Delayed Diagnosis of Dementia in Primary Care: Prevalence and Contributing Factors
Bradford, A., Kunik, M. E., Schulz, P., Williams, S. P., & Singh, H. (2009) · Alzheimer Disease & Associated Disorders · doi:10.1097/wad.0b013e3181a6bebc · Cited by 969
Glover, J. W. (2010) · Cited by 917
Age-specific incidence rates of Alzheimer’s disease: The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging
Kawas, C., Gray, S., Brookmeyer, R., Fozard, J., & Zonderman, A. (2000) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.54.11.2072 · Cited by 472
Incidence of dementia and probable Alzheimer's disease in a general population: The Framingham Study
Bachman, D. L., Wolf, P. A., Linn, R. T., Knoefel, J. E., Cobb, J. L., Belanger, A. J., White, L. R., & D'Agostino, R. B. (1993) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.43.3_part_1.515 · Cited by 470
Age-Specific Incidence of Alzheimer's Disease in a Community Population
Hebert, L. E. (1995) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.1995.03520410048025 · Cited by 462
Self-citationNational estimates of the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States
Brookmeyer, R., Evans, D. A., Hebert, L. E., Langa, K. M., Heeringa, S. G., Plassman, B. L., & Kukull, W. A. (2011) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2010.11.007 · Cited by 416
Self-citationEvans, D. A., Bennett, D. A., Wilson, R. S., Bienias, J. L., Morris, M. C., Scherr, P. A., Hebert, L. E., Aggarwal, N., Beckett, L. A., Joglekar, R., et al. (2003) · Archives of Neurology · doi:10.1001/archneur.60.2.185 · Cited by 370
Self-citationEstimated Prevalence of Alzheimer's Disease in the United States
Evans, D. A. (1990) · Milbank Quarterly · doi:10.2307/3350099 · Cited by 356
Self-citationDesign of the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP)
Bienias, J. L., Beckett, L. A., Bennett, D. A., Wilson, R. S., & Evans, D. A. (2003) · Journal of Alzheimer s Disease · doi:10.3233/jad-2003-5501 · Cited by 249
Self-citationKokmen, E., Chandra, V., & Schoenberg, B. S. (1988) · Neurology · doi:10.1212/wnl.38.6.975 · Cited by 127
Sources of variability in estimates of the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States
Wilson, R. S., Weir, D. R., Leurgans, S. E., Evans, D. A., Hebert, L. E., Langa, K. M., Plassman, B. L., Small, B. J., & Bennett, D. A. (2011) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2010.11.006 · Cited by 74
Self-citationUnited States Life Tables, 2012.
Arias, E., Heron, M. P., & Xu, J. (2016) · PubMed · Cited by 53
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Bienias JL Kott PS Evans DA. Applying the delete-a-group jacknife varience estimator to analyses of data from a complex longitudinal survey . Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association Section on Survey Research Methods. Alexandria: American Statistical Association; 2003:539–544.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2020 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association
Virani, S. S., Alonso, A., Benjamin, E. J., Bittencourt, M. S., Callaway, C. W., Carson, A. P., Chamberlain, A. M., Chang, A. R., Cheng, S., Delling, F. N., et al. (2020) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/cir.0000000000000757 · Cited by 9,175
Nichols, E., Steinmetz, J. D., Vollset, S. E., Fukutaki, K., Chalek, J., Abd-Allah, F., Abdoli, A., Abualhasan, A., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Akram, T. T., et al. (2022) · The Lancet Public Health · doi:10.1016/s2468-2667(21)00249-8 · Cited by 5,575
“19 Other work has applied macrosimulation techniques, using estimates of incidence, progression, and mortality, although the data requirements to fit these models are large while the evidence base for such data is sparse.”
2016 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures
Alzheimer's Association (2016) · Alzheimer's & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2016.03.001 · Cited by 5,069
Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association
Virani, S. S., Alonso, A., Aparicio, H. J., Benjamin, E. J., Bittencourt, M. S., Callaway, C. W., Carson, A. P., Chamberlain, A. M., Cheng, S., Delling, F. N., et al. (2021) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/cir.0000000000000950 · Cited by 5,784
2013 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures
Thies, W. H., & Bleiler, L. (2013) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1016/j.jalz.2013.02.003 · Cited by 3,372
Metadata
- Authors
- Hebert, L. E., Weuve, J., Scherr, P. A., & Evans, D. A.
- Affiliations
- Rush University (US)
- Venue
- Neurology
- Published
- 2013-05-07
- Volume
- 80
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 1778-1783
- ISSN
- 0028-3878 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-632X
- PMC
- PMC3719424
- OpenAlex
- W2071068165
- Cited by
- 2,642
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 81 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 192 · 2023: 167 · 2022: 242 · 2021: 312 · 2020: 317 · 2019: 232 · 2018: 210 · 2017: 212 · 2016: 217 · 2015: 160 · 2014: 129 · 2013: 47
- FWCI
- 131.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Neurology (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Alzheimer's Association
- National Institutes of Health (AG011101)
- National Institute on Aging (RC2AG036650, U01AG012505, R01AG030146, AG011101, R01AG011101, P30AG010161, R01AG021972, R01AG009966)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01HL084209)
- National Institute of Nursing Research (R01NR009543, R01NR010211)
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R21ES020404, R01ES010902, R21ES019712)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease, dementia prevalence, population projections, older adults, age-specific prevalence, racial differences, educational attainment, population aging, United States
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Population Surveillance, United States, Incidence, Censuses
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
