Cited by 542Statistical Methods and InferenceAdvanced Statistical Methods and ModelsSparse and Compressive Sensing Techniques

A significance test for the lasso

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Lockhart, Richard, Taylor, Jonathan, Tibshirani, Ryan J., Tibshirani, Robert·2014·The Annals of Statistics

Abstract

In the sparse linear regression setting, we consider testing the significance of the predictor variable that enters the current lasso model, in the sequence of models visited along the lasso solution path. We propose a simple test statistic based on lasso fitted values, called the covariance test statistic, and show that when the true model is linear, this statistic has an $\operatorname{Exp}(1)$ asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis (the null being that all truly active variables are contained in the current lasso model). Our proof of this result for the special case of the first predictor to enter the model (i.e., testing for a single significant predictor variable against the global null) requires only weak assumptions on the predictor matrix $X$. On the other hand, our proof for a general step in the lasso path places further technical assumptions on $X$ and the generative model, but still allows for the important high-dimensional case $p>n$, and does not necessarily require that the current lasso model achieves perfect recovery of the truly active variables. Of course, for testing the significance of an additional variable between two nested linear models, one typically uses the chi-squared test, comparing the drop in residual sum of squares (RSS) to a $\chi^{2}_{1}$ distribution. But when this additional variable is not fixed, and has been chosen adaptively or greedily, this test is no longer appropriate: adaptivity makes the drop in RSS stochastically much larger than $\chi^{2}_{1}$ under the null hypothesis. Our analysis explicitly accounts for adaptivity, as it must, since the lasso builds an adaptive sequence of linear models as the tuning parameter $\lambda$ decreases. In this analysis, shrinkage plays a key role: though additional variables are chosen adaptively, the coefficients of lasso active variables are shrunken due to the $\ell_{1}$ penalty. Therefore, the test statistic (which is based on lasso fitted values) is in a sense balanced by these two opposing properties—adaptivity and shrinkage—and its null distribution is tractable and asymptotically $\operatorname{Exp}(1)$.

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  • Unlike stepwise variable selection procedures, LARS does not over-inflate effect size estimates during variable selection nor bias hypothesis tests of those effect sizes.

    “Unlike stepwise variable selection procedures, LARS does not over-inflate effect size estimates during variable selection,14 nor bias hypothesis tests of those effect sizes.19”
  • Stepwise regression would introduce biases that LARS is known to overcome.

    “However, stepwise regression would introduce biases that LARS is known to overcome,19 and we have previously discussed how the grouped lasso and elastic net methods would result in the identification of needlessly complicated hypotheses.13”

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Authors
Lockhart, R., Taylor, J., Tibshirani, R. J., & Tibshirani, R.
Affiliations
  • Simon Fraser University (CA)
  • Carnegie Mellon University (US)
Venue
The Annals of Statistics
Published
2014-04-01
Volume
42
Issue
2
Pages
413-468
ISSN
  • 0090-5364 (ISSN-L)
  • 2168-8966
OpenAlex
W2172185584
Cited by
541
References
64
Citations by year
2026: 6 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 43 · 2021: 40 · 2020: 59 · 2019: 68 · 2018: 67 · 2017: 51 · 2016: 60 · 2015: 50 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 11
FWCI
64.76
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • The Annals of Statistics (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
  • KiltHub Repository (submittedVersion)
  • Project Euclid (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation
  • National Institutes of Health
  • Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
  • National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (R01EB001988)
  • Air Force Office of Scientific Research
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Inference
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Statistical Methods and Models
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Computational Mechanics › Sparse and Compressive Sensing Techniques
Keywords
LASSO, significance testing, sparse linear regression, shrinkage, high-dimensional regression, nested models

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