A structured approach to hypotheses involving continuous exposures over the life course
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Epidemiologists are often interested in examining different hypotheses for how exposures measured repeatedly over the life course relate to later-life outcomes. A structured approach for selecting the hypotheses most supported by theory and observed data has been developed for binary exposures. The aim of this paper is to extend this to include continuous exposures and allow for confounding and missing data. METHODS: We studied two examples, the association between: (i) maternal weight during pregnancy and birthweight; and (ii) stressful family events throughout childhood and depression in adolescence. In each example we considered several plausible hypotheses including accumulation, critical periods, sensitive periods, change and effect modification. We used least angle regression to select the hypothesis that explained the most variation in the outcome, demonstrating appropriate methods for adjusting for confounders and dealing with missing data. RESULTS: The structured approach identified a combination of sensitive periods: pre-pregnancy weight, and gestational weight gain 0-20 weeks and 20-40 weeks, as the best explanation for variation in birthweight after adjusting for maternal height. A sensitive period hypothesis best explained variation in adolescent depression, with the association strengthening with the proximity of stressful family events. For each example, these models have theoretical support at least as strong as any competing hypothesis. CONCLUSIONS: We have extended the structured approach to incorporate continuous exposures, confounding and missing data. This approach can be used in either an exploratory or a confirmatory setting. The interpretation, plausibility and consistency with causal assumptions should all be considered when proposing and choosing life course hypotheses.
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This paper extends a structured, LARS-based approach for choosing life-course hypotheses from binary exposures to continuous exposures, while incorporating confounding and missing data. It illustrates the method in two ALSPAC examples: maternal weight in pregnancy and offspring birthweight, and stressful family events in childhood and adolescent depression.
Key findings
- In 11,499 mother–offspring pairs, the selected model for birthweight included pre-pregnancy weight, total gestational weight gain, and weight gain from 0–20 weeks, with an R-squared of 12% after adjusting for maternal height.
- Birthweight increased by 10 g per kg pre-pregnancy weight (95% CI 10, 11), 30 g per kg weight gain from 0–20 weeks (95% CI 26, 33), and 10 g per kg weight gain from 20–40 weeks (95% CI 7, 13).
- In 3,240 female ALSPAC participants, the recency hypothesis best explained variation in depression score at age 14, although all models explained less than 1% of variation; the association increased by 0.014 per additional year of age (95% CI 0.007, 0.022).
- The LARS procedure selected the recency hypothesis in all 20 imputed datasets, with depression score increases per stressful family event of 0.029 at age 2, 0.059 at age 4, 0.088 at age 6, and 0.117 at age 8.
Methods
- The authors extended a structured approach for life-course hypotheses using least angle regression (LARS) variable selection, encoding accumulation, critical period, sensitive period, change, effect modification, and threshold hypotheses as variables for continuous exposures.
- Two ALSPAC examples were analyzed: maternal weight during pregnancy and offspring birthweight in 11,499 mother–offspring pairs, and stressful family events from 6 to 103 months and depressive symptoms at age 14 in 3,240 females.
- Confounding was addressed using DAGs and adjustment for maternal height; missing data and measurement error were handled with a multilevel model in the birthweight example and multiple imputation by chained equations in the depression example, with elbow plots and covariance tests used to select variables.
Limitations
- The paper states that strong correlation between exposure measurements may decrease statistical power; without centering, the interaction variable in the first example would have led to selecting an effect modification hypothesis instead of the additive model.
- The paper states that it is unclear how much hypothesis selection is affected by measurement error in the exposure, and it assumes the exposure is measured with the same precision; it also did not investigate nonlinear relationships, assumed a linear association between stressful life events and depression, and notes that GWG combines multiple phenotypes and better exposure measurements might change findings.
- The paper states that the structured approach will fail to identify the underlying association if it is not included in the a priori set of hypotheses, and that the method for different confounders does not allow for combining more than one hypothesized association with different potential confounders, as may occur with effect modification.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 31 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
In the maternal weight and birthweight example, the structured approach identified a combination of sensitive periods: pre-pregnancy weight, and gestational weight gain 0-20 weeks and 20-40 weeks, as the best explanation for variation in birthweight after adjusting for maternal height.
“The structured approach identified a combination of sensitive periods: pre-pregnancy weight, and gestational weight gain 0-20 weeks and 20-40 weeks, as the best explanation for variation in birthweight after adjusting for maternal height.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“In an example investigating the association between maternal weight during pregnancy and offspring birthweight, the structured approach identified a combination of pre-pregnancy weight, weight gain during 0-20 weeks of gestation, and weight gain during 20-40 weeks of gestation, as the best explanation for variation in birthweight.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
- Findingown data
Pre-pregnancy weight is positively associated with birthweight, with a change of 10 g per kg increase (95% CI 10, 11), adjusted for maternal height.
“| Pre-pregnancy weight (kg) | 60.7 (12.6) | 10 (10, 11) | 0.0001 |”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The R-squared value for all models in the depression and stressful family events example is less than 1%.
“The R-squared value for all models is less than 1%, indicating that very little of the depression score at age 14 can be attributed to stressful family events over the preceding life course.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The selected model for the GWG example has an R-squared value of 12%.
“The clearest elbow is at three additional variables, which are pre-pregnancy weight, total GWG and GWG between 0 and 20 weeks (R-squared value 12%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In the GWG example, the clearest elbow in the LARS procedure is at three additional variables: pre-pregnancy weight, total GWG, and GWG between 0 and 20 weeks.
“The clearest elbow is at three additional variables, which are pre-pregnancy weight, total GWG and GWG between 0 and 20 weeks (R-squared value 12%).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
Weight gain between 0 and 20 weeks of gestation is positively associated with birthweight, with a change of 30 g per kg increase (95% CI 26, 33), adjusted for maternal height.
“| Weight gain between 0 and 20 weeks of gestation (kg) | 6.6 (3.3) | 30 (26, 33) | 0.0001 |”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Weight gain between 20 and 40 weeks of gestation is positively associated with birthweight, with a change of 10 g per kg increase (95% CI 7, 13), adjusted for maternal height.
“| Weight gain between 20 and 40 weeks of gestation (kg) | 9.9 (3.5) | 10 (7, 13) | <0.0001 |”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
In an example investigating the association between stressful family events and offspring birthweight, the structured approach identified a sensitive period hypothesis strengthening with the proximity of stressful family events to the point at which the outcome was measured.
“In an example investigating the association between stressful family events and offspring birthweight, the structured approach identified a sensitive period hypothesis strengthening with the proximity of stressful family events to the point at which the outcome was measured.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There is strong evidence that the recency hypothesis (iv) explained as much as possible of the variation in the outcome.
“However, there is strong evidence, from the clear elbow (at one variable) on the plot and P-value given from the covariance test (P < 0.0001), that the recency hypothesis (iv) explained as much as possible of the variation in the outcome.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
GWG between 0 and 20 weeks has a larger effect per kg than GWG between 20 and 40 weeks.
“GWG between 0 and 20 weeks has a larger effect per kg than GWG between 20 and 40 weeks (Table 1), so 0 to 20 weeks may be thought of as the more sensitive period.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
The association between stressful family events and depression score increased by 0.014 (95% CI 0.007, 0.022) for each additional year of age at event.
“A single stressful family event was always associated with an increase in the depression score; however, this association increased by 0.014 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.007, 0.022] for each additional year of age.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The association between stressful life events and depression is linear.
- Findingown data
A single stressful family event was always associated with an increase in the depression score.
“A single stressful family event was always associated with an increase in the depression score; however, this association increased by 0.014 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.007, 0.022] for each additional year of age.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The association between stressful life events and depression is linear.
- Findingown data
In all 20 imputed datasets, the LARS procedure selected hypothesis (iv) as the best explanation for the observed data.
“In all 20 datasets, the LARS procedure selected hypothesis (iv) as the best explanation for the observed data.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Multilevel models have the further benefit of reducing measurement error in the exposure.
“This has the further benefit of reducing measurement error in the exposure.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [22] Steele, 2008, Multilevel models for longitudinal data, J R Stat Soc Ser A source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
The structured approach for binary exposures was developed by the authors.
“We developed a structured approach for binary exposures,13 based on least angle regression (LARS),14 that demonstrated more accuracy in simulation than other methods.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [13] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
The structured approach for binary exposures demonstrated more accuracy in simulation than other methods.
“We developed a structured approach for binary exposures,13 based on least angle regression (LARS),14 that demonstrated more accuracy in simulation than other methods.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [13] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationnone given
The structured approach can be extended to continuous exposure measurements.
“The structured approach to choosing the hypothesis, regarding an association between an exposure measured over the life course and a later outcome, that is most supported by the data can be extended to continuous exposure measurements.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
“We have extended the structured approach to incorporate continuous exposures, confounding and missing data.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Abstract · plain
- Interpretationown data
For each example, the selected models have theoretical support at least as strong as any competing hypothesis.
“For each example, these models have theoretical support at least as strong as any competing hypothesis.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
Multilevel models can be used to overcome problems caused by irregularly sampled measures, or missing measures, by estimating the exposure at common time points for all participants.
“In the special case where an exposure is measured repeatedly over the life course, multilevel models could be used to overcome the problems caused by irregularly sampled measures, or missing measures, by estimating the exposure at common time points for all participants.22”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [22] Steele, 2008, Multilevel models for longitudinal data, J R Stat Soc Ser A source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
DAGs are limited in their ability to depict many life course hypotheses such as effect modification.
“Due to their nonparametric nature, DAGs are limited in their ability to depict many life course hypotheses such as effect modification.16”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
The structured approach for binary exposures is based on least angle regression (LARS).
“We developed a structured approach for binary exposures,13 based on least angle regression (LARS),14 that demonstrated more accuracy in simulation than other methods.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [14] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning
The selected variables combine to encode hypotheses (ii) and (iii) working in combination.
“Since the combination of two GWG variables allows for two different coefficients for the two different periods 0 to 20 weeks and 20 to 40 weeks, the selected variables combine to encode hypotheses (ii) and (iii) working in combination.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Very little of the depression score at age 14 can be attributed to stressful family events over the preceding life course.
“The R-squared value for all models is less than 1%, indicating that very little of the depression score at age 14 can be attributed to stressful family events over the preceding life course.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
LARS can suffer from low power if some variables are highly correlated.
“LARS can suffer from low power if some variables are highly correlated,13 therefore we centred C and Δ3 to reduce their correlation with their product.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [13] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
0 to 20 weeks may be thought of as the more sensitive period.
“GWG between 0 and 20 weeks has a larger effect per kg than GWG between 20 and 40 weeks (Table 1), so 0 to 20 weeks may be thought of as the more sensitive period.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The correct underlying association may be identified in spite of not being included a priori.
“Thus the correct underlying association may be identified in spite of not being included a priori.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The observed data provide some support for the developmental overnutrition hypothesis.
“Thus the observed data provide some support for the developmental overnutrition hypothesis, as women with greater pre-pregnancy weight might on average have greater fat mass, which across pregnancy results in overnutrition of their infant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The AIC method lacks statistical power when compared with LARS.
“However, this method lacks statistical power when compared with LARS.13”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [13] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Stepwise regression would introduce biases that LARS is known to overcome.
“However, stepwise regression would introduce biases that LARS is known to overcome,19 and we have previously discussed how the grouped lasso and elastic net methods would result in the identification of needlessly complicated hypotheses.13”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [19] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
The method for adjusting for confounders when different hypothesized life course associations have different potential confounders does not allow for the potential combination of more than one hypothesized association with different potential confounders.
“However, this method does not allow for the potential combination of more than one hypothesized association with different potential confounders, as may be encountered if effect modification is considered.37”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [37] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationnone given
Variables from different hypotheses can combine to form new hypotheses not originally proposed in the LARS approach.
“One of the advantages of the LARS approach is that variables from different hypotheses can combine to form new hypotheses not originally proposed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
Distal contributors could make individuals vulnerable to experiencing depression when faced with proximal stressful life events.
“Distal contributors, therefore, could make individuals vulnerable to experiencing depression when faced with proximal stressful life events.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Comparing hypothesized models against a saturated model using an F-test cannot be extended to continuous exposures, as the required saturated model would have as many parameters as study participants.
“Other statistical methods applicable to the structured approach exist, such as comparing hypothesized models against a saturated model using an F-test.12 This cannot be extended to continuous exposures, as the required saturated model would have as many parameters as study participants.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [12] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductnone given
Combining LARS with a multilevel model overcame the issues of missing data and measurement error among the exposure measurements.
“We also combined LARS with a multilevel model in order to overcome the issues of missing data and measurement error among the exposure measurements.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
The structured approach will fail to identify the underlying association if it is not included in the set of hypotheses proposed a priori.
“The structured approach will fail to identify the underlying association if it is not included in the set of hypotheses proposed a priori.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
The grouped lasso and elastic net methods would result in the identification of needlessly complicated hypotheses.
“However, stepwise regression would introduce biases that LARS is known to overcome,19 and we have previously discussed how the grouped lasso and elastic net methods would result in the identification of needlessly complicated hypotheses.13”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [13] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
The structured approach using LARS for variable selection can be extended beyond binary exposures to define structured hypotheses for the life course association between continuous exposure variables and a later life outcome.
“We have demonstrated how structured hypotheses may be defined for the life course association between continuous exposure variables and a later life outcome, by extending the structured approach using LARS for variable selection beyond the current limitation to binary exposures.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
In the GWG example, a suitable adjustment for confounding within the LARS structured approach was shown by ensuring that LARS selected pre-pregnancy height in all models.
“In our GWG example, we showed a suitable adjustment for confounding within the LARS structured approach, by ensuring that LARS selected pre-pregnancy height in all models.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
If terms were not centred in the first example, the strong correlation with the interaction variable would result in identifying an effect modification hypothesis instead of the additive one reported in Table 1.
“Indeed, if we did not centre terms in our first example, the strong correlation with the interaction variable would result in identifying an effect modification hypothesis instead of the additive one reported in Table 1.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The results of the second example supported the recency hypothesis, in which proximal rather than distal exposure to stressful life events was more strongly associated with depression.
“The results of our second example supported the recency hypothesis34 in which proximal, rather than distal, exposure to stressful life events was more strongly associated with depression.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [34] source
Not checked in the free run.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The association between stressful life events and depression is linear.
- Premisecitation
Strong correlation between the exposure measurements may decrease statistical power in methods for the structured approach.
“As with other methods for the structured approach, strong correlation between the exposure measurements may decrease statistical power.13”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [13] source
Not checked in the free run.
- May combine two claims. 8
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 26
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn the stressful family events and depression example, a sensitive period hypothesis best explained variation in adolescent depression, with the association strengthening with the proximity of stressful family events.
“A sensitive period hypothesis best explained variation in adolescent depression, with the association strengthening with the proximity of stressful family events.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimThe quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataIn the proximal model identified by LARS, the change in depression score per stressful family event increased with age at event, from 0.029 (95% CI 0.014, 0.045) at age 2 to 0.117 (0.056, 0.178) at age 8.
“| Age in years at event(s) | Change in depression score per event (95% confidence interval) | P-value from covariance test |”
- Also stated in: § Results · plain
“| 2 | 0.029 (0.014, 0.045) | |”
- Also stated in: § Results · plain
“| 8 | 0.117 (0.056, 0.178) | < 0.0001 |”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The association between stressful life events and depression is linear.
- Also stated in: § Results · plain
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based birth cohort study that recruited 14 541 pregnant women resident in Avon, UK, with expected dates of delivery 1 April 1991 to 31 December 1992.
“The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based birth cohort study that recruited 14 541 pregnant women resident in Avon, UK, with expected dates of delivery 1 April 1991 to 31 December 1992.26,27”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
Premisenone givenIndividuals with missing data on one or more exposure measurements would not be included in a complete cases analysis, leading to loss of power and potential bias.
“Individuals with missing data on one or more exposure measurements would not be included in a complete cases analysis, leading to loss of power and potential bias.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningUnder the developmental overnutrition hypothesis, maternal early-/pre-pregnancy weight and weight gain up to 20 weeks are anticipated to be related to birthweight.
“Under this hypothesis we might anticipate maternal early-/pre-pregnancy weight (reflecting her level of adiposity) and weight gain up to 20 weeks (when maternal fat deposition contributes more to weight gain than other constituents including fetal weight, placenta and amniotic fluid) to be related to birthweight.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationnone givenMethods for handling missing data can be incorporated into the structured approach.
“Methods for handling confounding and missing data can be incorporated into the structured approach.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Interpretationnone givenThe structured approach can be used in either an exploratory or a confirmatory setting.
“This approach can be used in either an exploratory or a confirmatory setting.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Interpretationnone givenMethods for handling confounding can be incorporated into the structured approach.
“Methods for handling confounding and missing data can be incorporated into the structured approach.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningOne might anticipate pre-pregnancy weight to interact positively with GWG.
“Indeed, one might anticipate pre-pregnancy weight to interact positively with GWG, since the developing fetus of women with greater adiposity will gain more weight throughout pregnancy (under the developmental overnutrition hypothesis) and fetal weight gain will directly contribute to their greater birthweight.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationThe developmental overnutrition hypothesis suggests that greater maternal adiposity, and associated greater maternal circulating glucose and other nutrients, overfeed the developing fetus resulting in greater birthweight and adiposity throughout life.
“The ‘developmental overnutrition hypothesis’ suggests that greater maternal adiposity, and associated greater maternal circulating glucose and other nutrients, overfeed the developing fetus resulting in greater birthweight and adiposity throughout life.23,24”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningSince GWG includes birthweight, later GWG where the fetus contributes more may also be important.
“However, since GWG includes birthweight (the final attained weight of the fetus), later GWG where the fetus contributes more may also be important.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationThe Institute of Medicine publishes recommended upper and lower thresholds for GWG according to pre-pregnancy BMI, with the aim of reducing the implications of GWG including child obesity.
“The Institute of Medicine (IOM) publishes recommended upper and lower thresholds for GWG according to pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), with the aim of reducing the implications of GWG including child obesity.25”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [25] Institute of Medicine and National Research Council. Weight Gain During Pregnancy: Reexamining the Guidelines. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2009.
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningFor the alternative explanations that genetic variants influence adiposity or that mother's weight reflects pelvic size, only pre-pregnancy weight is anticipated to be associated with birthweight.
“For both of these we might anticipate that only pre-pregnancy weight will be associated with birthweight.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationUnlike stepwise variable selection procedures, LARS does not over-inflate effect size estimates during variable selection nor bias hypothesis tests of those effect sizes.
“Unlike stepwise variable selection procedures, LARS does not over-inflate effect size estimates during variable selection,14 nor bias hypothesis tests of those effect sizes.19”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationThe use of a DAG to specify causal assumptions can aid the identification of potential confounders, as variables blocking back-door paths from exposure to outcome.
“The use of a DAG to specify causal assumptions can aid the identification of potential confounders, as variables blocking back-door paths from exposure to outcome.20”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [20] Pearl, 2014, Confounding equivalence in causal inference, J Causal Infer source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationFamily stability in the first 5 years of life may play a role in subsequent development of depression.
“Family stability in the first 5 years of life may play a role in subsequent development of depression.33”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [33] source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationC and Δ3 were centred to reduce their correlation with their product.
“LARS can suffer from low power if some variables are highly correlated,13 therefore we centred C and Δ3 to reduce their correlation with their product.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted), S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe recency hypothesis holds that adverse exposures have time-limited depressogenic effects, meaning proximal exposures are predicted to have stronger associations with depression compared with distal exposures.
“Another potential mechanism is the ‘recency hypothesis’,34 in which adverse exposures have time-limited depressogenic effects, meaning proximal exposures are predicted to have stronger associations with depression compared with distal exposures.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [34] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataThe analysis adjusted for potential confounding by maternal height.
“We adjusted for potential confounding by maternal height using the method discussed above.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted).
PremisecitationExposure to multiple stressors has a greater adverse effect on mental health than exposure to single stressors.
“It has been suggested that exposure to multiple stressors has a greater adverse effect on mental health than exposure to single stressors,31 and therefore it is likely that mental health outcomes such as depression will increase in severity with increased number of stressful family events.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationHeight may have a non-linear (power) relationship with weight.
“Height may have a non-linear (power) relationship with weight,29,30 so we used LARS to identify a linear representation of height as the most appropriate power to include.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationA multilevel model was used to obtain estimated maternal weight at 0, 20 and 40 weeks of gestation in 11,499 mother-offspring pairs, and these estimates overcame the issues of irregular sampling and missing data in the exposure measurements.
“we used a multilevel model to obtain estimated maternal weight at 0 (i.e. pre-pregnancy), 20 and 40 weeks of gestation in 11 499 mother-offspring pairs.28 Such estimates overcame the issues of irregular sampling and missing data in the exposure measurements.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [28] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted).
InterpretationcitationMental health outcomes such as depression will increase in severity with increased number of stressful family events.
“It has been suggested that exposure to multiple stressors has a greater adverse effect on mental health than exposure to single stressors,31 and therefore it is likely that mental health outcomes such as depression will increase in severity with increased number of stressful family events.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationExposure to adversities in early childhood is more strongly associated with subsequent mental health problems than exposure to these events in later childhood and adolescence.
“Alternatively, there is growing evidence that exposure to adversities in early childhood are more strongly associated with subsequent mental health problems than exposure to these events in later childhood and adolescence, as specific regions of the developing brain during early childhood might be vulnerable to adverse exposures that could increase risk for depression.32”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [32] source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataLARS was used to identify a linear representation of height as the most appropriate power to include.
“Height may have a non-linear (power) relationship with weight,29,30 so we used LARS to identify a linear representation of height as the most appropriate power to include.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationSpecific regions of the developing brain during early childhood might be vulnerable to adverse exposures that could increase risk for depression.
“Alternatively, there is growing evidence that exposure to adversities in early childhood are more strongly associated with subsequent mental health problems than exposure to these events in later childhood and adolescence, as specific regions of the developing brain during early childhood might be vulnerable to adverse exposures that could increase risk for depression.32”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [32] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenMissing data in the exposure were imputed using chained equations.
“We imputed missing data in the exposure using chained equations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataIn the stressful family events example, imputation using chained equations may be used in conjunction with the LARS structured approach and was robust to random changes between imputed datasets.
“Finally, in our stressful family events example, we showed how the alternative method for handling missing data, imputation using chained equations, may be used in conjunction with the LARS structured approach and was robust to random changes between imputed datasets.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningWomen with greater pre-pregnancy weight might on average have greater fat mass, which across pregnancy results in overnutrition of their infant.
“Thus the observed data provide some support for the developmental overnutrition hypothesis, as women with greater pre-pregnancy weight might on average have greater fat mass, which across pregnancy results in overnutrition of their infant.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationAccording to the hopelessness theory of depression, distal contributors (e.g. attributional style) influence causal attributions related to proximal life events.
“According to the hopelessness theory of depression, distal contributors (e.g. attributional style) influence causal attributions related to proximal life events.36”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [36] source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
InterpretationreasoningThe structured approach may be used to assess the extent to which hypotheses concerning the association between continuous exposure measurements and an outcome are supported by observed data.
“The structured approach may be used to assess the extent to which hypotheses concerning the association between continuous exposure measurements and an outcome are supported by observed data.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningThis is likely to occur when the set of potential hypotheses is general enough to include, in combination, all possible associations permitted by the causal assumptions.
“This is likely to occur when the set of potential hypotheses is general enough to include, in combination, all possible associations permitted by the causal assumptions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
The impact of confounding, measurement error in the exposure, and missing data in the exposure and outcome had not yet been explored within the structured approach.
“Furthermore, the impact of confounding, measurement error in the exposure and missing data in the exposure and outcome have not yet been explored within the structured approach.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
In the examples, all hypotheses considered have the same potential confounders.
“In our examples we have assumed that all of the hypotheses considered have the same potential confounders”
The paper relies on this without support.
The causal relationships depicted in Figure 1 are correct.
“Figure 1 shows a DAG depicting the potential causal relationships between the exposure and outcome measurements referred to in hypotheses (i)-(v), and also maternal height, which is a potential confounder.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The exposure is always measured with the same level of precision.
“We have assumed that the exposure is always measured with the same level of precision, as variable selection may be affected by the variance of the exposures.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Different exposure variables have the same level of measurement error.
“Although not shown here, LARS can also be used to test different hypothesized life course associations in different exposure variables. These too would have to be assumed to have the same level of measurement error.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The association between stressful life events and depression is linear.
“Our analysis assumed a linear association between stressful life events and depression, which would need to be investigated further, as would the definition of a stressful life event and whether some could be more influential than others.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Whether using a triangulation approach or not, if the timing of exposure is central to the research question then that needs to be specifically included in the hypotheses tested and the comparisons made.
“Whether using a triangulation approach or not, if the timing of exposure is central to the research question then that needs to be specifically included in the hypotheses tested and the comparisons made.49,50”
From Triangulation in aetiological epidemiology (2017) · cites this paper as [50]
Timing of exposure, such as whether an exposure has an effect only during a critical period, or has different magnitudes of effect at different times in the life course (sensitive periods), are important to consider.
“Timing of exposure, such as whether or not an exposure has an effect only during a critical period, or has different magnitudes of effect at different times in the life course (sensitive periods) are also important to consider.49,50”
From Triangulation in aetiological epidemiology (2017) · cites this paper as [50]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Key message names the wrong outcome for stressful family events
MinorThe key message says the stressful-family-events example concerns offspring birthweight, but the abstract identifies its outcome as depression in adolescence.
“In an example investigating the association between stressful family events and offspring birthweight, the structured approach identified a sensitive period hypothesis strengthening with the proximity of stressful family events to the point at which the outcome was measured.”
“(ii) stressful family events throughout childhood and depression in adolescence.”
Cites
Efron, B., Hastie, T., Johnstone, I., & Tibshirani, R. (2004) · The Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/009053604000000067 · Cited by 9,357 · see citing works
Weight Gain During Pregnancy: Reexamining the Guidelines
Rasmussen, K. M., & Yaktine, A. L. (2009) · Cited by 4,052 · see citing works
Hopelessness depression: A theory-based subtype of depression.
Abramson, L. Y., Metalsky, G. I., & Alloy, L. B. (1989) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037//0033-295x.96.2.358 · Cited by 3,722 · see citing works
Multiple imputation by chained equations: what is it and how does it work?
Azur, M. J., Stuart, E. A., Frangakis, C., & Leaf, P. J. (2011) · International Journal of Methods in Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1002/mpr.329 · Cited by 3,542 · see citing works
Ben-Shlomo, Y. (2002) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/31.2.285 · Cited by 3,038 · see citing works
Boyd, A., Golding, J., Macleod, J., Lawlor, D. A., Fraser, A., Henderson, J., Molloy, L., Ness, A., Ring, S., & Davey Smith, G. (2013) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dys064 · Cited by 2,996 · see citing works
Self-citationCohort Profile: The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children: ALSPAC mothers cohort
Fraser, A., Macdonald-Wallis, C., Tilling, K., Boyd, A., Golding, J., Davey Smith, G., Henderson, J., Macleod, J., Molloy, L., Ness, A., et al. (2013) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dys066 · Cited by 2,494 · see citing works
Self-citationDevelopmental plasticity and human health
Bateson, P., Barker, D., Clutton-Brock, T., Deb, D., D'Udine, B., Foley, R. A., Gluckman, P., Godfrey, K., Kirkwood, T., Lahr, M. M., et al. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02725 · Cited by 1,742 · see citing works
Trajectories of growth among children who have coronary events as adults
Barker, D. J. P., Osmond, C., Forsén, T. J., Kajantie, E., & Eriksson, J. G. (2005) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa044160 · Cited by 1,517 · see citing works
Stress, sensitive periods and maturational events in adolescent depression
Andersen, S. L., & Teicher, M. H. (2008) · Trends in Neurosciences · doi:10.1016/j.tins.2008.01.004 · Cited by 1,005 · see citing works
Childhood Poverty, Chronic Stress, Self-Regulation, and Coping
Evans, G. W., & Kim, P. (2013) · Child Development Perspectives · doi:10.1111/cdep.12013 · Cited by 962 · see citing works
Is a subgroup effect believable? Updating criteria to evaluate the credibility of subgroup analyses
Sun, X., Briel, M., Walter, S. D., & Guyatt, G. H. (2010) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.c117 · Cited by 808 · see citing works
A significance test for the lasso
Lockhart, R., Taylor, J., Tibshirani, R. J., & Tibshirani, R. (2014) · The Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/13-aos1175 · Cited by 541 · see citing works
Fraser, A., Tilling, K., Macdonald-Wallis, C., Sattar, N., Brion, M.-J., Benfield, L., Ness, A., Deanfield, J., Hingorani, A., Nelson, S. M., et al. (2010) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.109.906081 · Cited by 486 · see citing works
Self-citationOn the distinction between interaction and effect modification
VanderWeele, T. J. (2009) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0b013e3181ba333c · Cited by 450 · see citing works
Plasticity, Robustness, Development and Evolution
Bateson, P., & Gluckman, P. D. (2011) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511842382 · Cited by 342 · see citing works
Wells, J. C. K. (2009) · American Journal of Human Biology · doi:10.1002/ajhb.20994 · Cited by 269 · see citing works
Multilevel models for longitudinal data
Steele, F. (2008) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2007.00509.x · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Statistical Issues in Life Course Epidemiology
Stavola, B. L. D., Nitsch, D., dos‐Santos‐Silva, I., McCormack, V., Hardy, R., Mann, V., Cole, T. J., Morton, S., & Leon, D. A. (2005) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwj003 · Cited by 242 · see citing works
Self-citationPlasticity, Robustness, Development and Evolution
(2012) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dys033 · Cited by 223 · see citing works
A structured approach to modelling the effects of binary exposure variables over the life course
Mishra, G., Nitsch, D., Black, S., De Stavola, B., Kuh, D., & Hardy, R. (2009) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyn229 · Cited by 218 · see citing works
Self-citationMaternal adiposity—a determinant of perinatal and offspring outcomes?
Lawlor, D. A., Relton, C., Sattar, N., & Nelson, S. M. (2012) · Nature Reviews Endocrinology · doi:10.1038/nrendo.2012.176 · Cited by 192 · see citing works
Self-citationKarachaliou, M., Georgiou, V., Roumeliotaki, T., Chalkiadaki, G., Daraki, V. N., Koinaki, S., Dermitzaki, E., Sarri, K. O., Vassilaki, M. E., Kogevinas, M., et al. (2015) · American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology · doi:10.1016/j.ajog.2014.12.038 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Environmental stress and psychiatric illness
Agid, O., Kohn, Y., & Lerer, B. (2000) · Biomedicine & Pharmacotherapy · doi:10.1016/s0753-3322(00)89046-0 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Okasha, M., McCarron, P., Gunnell, D., & Smith, G. D. (2003) · Breast Cancer Research and Treatment · doi:10.1023/a:1022988918755 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
Child-, adolescent- and young adult-onset depressions: differential risk factors in development?
Shanahan, L., Copeland, W. E., Costello, E. J., & Angold, A. (2011) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291711000675 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
Lawlor, D. A. (2013) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dys209 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Self-citationSigned Directed Acyclic Graphs for Causal Inference
VanderWeele, T. J., & Robins, J. M. (2010) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology) · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9868.2009.00728.x · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Can DAGs Clarify Effect Modification?
Weinberg, C. R. (2007) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0b013e318126c11d · Cited by 94 · see citing works
Stergiakouli, E., Gaillard, R., Tavaré, J. M., Balthasar, N., Loos, R. J., Taal, H. R., Evans, D. M., Rivadeneira, F., St Pourcain, B., Uitterlinden, A. G., et al. (2014) · Obesity · doi:10.1002/oby.20840 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Ference, B. A., Julius, S., Mahajan, N., Levy, P. D., Williams, K. A., & Flack, J. M. (2014) · Hypertension · doi:10.1161/hypertensionaha.113.02734 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
A critical appraisal of the predictive adaptive response hypothesis
Wells, J. C. K. (2012) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyr239 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Model Selection of the Effect of Binary Exposures over the Life Course
Smith, A. D. A. C., Heron, J., Mishra, G., Gilthorpe, M. S., Ben-Shlomo, Y., & Tilling, K. (2015) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000000348 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Self-citationMishra, G. D., Chiesa, F., Goodman, A., Stavola, B. L. D., & Koupil, I. (2013) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s10654-013-9777-z · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Pediatric Lead Poisoning: is There a Threshold?
Landrigan, P. J. (2000) · Public Health Reports · doi:10.1093/phr/115.6.530 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Heo, M., Kabat, G. C., Gallagher, D., Heymsfield, S. B., & Rohan, T. E. (2013) · International Journal of Obesity · doi:10.1038/ijo.2012.201 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Lawlor, D. A. (2011) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0b013e3182093298 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Self-citationConfounding Equivalence in Causal Inference
Pearl, J., & Paz, A. (2014) · Journal of Causal Inference · doi:10.1515/jci-2013-0020 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 39 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Triangulation in aetiological epidemiology
Lawlor, D. A., Tilling, K., & Davey Smith, G. (2017) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyw314 · Cited by 1,129 · see citing works
Self-citationCommentary: Two-sample Mendelian randomization: opportunities and challenges
Lawlor, D. A. (2016) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyw127 · Cited by 810 · see citing works
Self-citationDunn, E. C., Soare, T. W., Zhu, Y., Simpkin, A. J., Suderman, M. J., Klengel, T., Smith, A. D. A. C., Ressler, K. J., & Relton, C. L. (2019) · Biological Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.biopsych.2018.12.023 · Cited by 315 · see citing works
Self-citationDunn, E. C., Soare, T. W., Raffeld, M. R., Busso, D. S., Crawford, K. M., Davis, K. A., Fisher, V. A., Slopen, N., Smith, A. D. A. C., Tiemeier, H., et al. (2018) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291718000181 · Cited by 179 · see citing works
Self-citationAdversity exposure during sensitive periods predicts accelerated epigenetic aging in children
Marini, S., Davis, K. A., Soare, T. W., Zhu, Y., Suderman, M. J., Simpkin, A. J., Smith, A. D. A. C., Wolf, E. J., Relton, C. L., & Dunn, E. C. (2019) · Psychoneuroendocrinology · doi:10.1016/j.psyneuen.2019.104484 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
Self-citationElhakeem, A., Hughes, R. A., Tilling, K. M., Cousminer, D. L., Jackowski, S. A., Cole, T. J., Kwong, A. S. F., Li, Z., Grant, S. F. A., Baxter-Jones, A. D. G., et al. (2022) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-022-01542-8 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Self-citationLife-course exposure to air pollution and biological ageing in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936
Baranyi, G., Deary, I. J., McCartney, D. L., Harris, S. E., Shortt, N., Reis, S., Russ, T. C., Thompson, C. W., Vieno, M., Cox, S. R., et al. (2022) · Environment International · doi:10.1016/j.envint.2022.107501 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Lussier, A. A., Zhu, Y., Smith, B. J., Cerutti, J., Fisher, J., Melton, P. E., Wood, N. M., Cohen‐Woods, S., Huang, R., Mitchell, C. M., et al. (2023) · The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health · doi:10.1016/s2352-4642(23)00127-x · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Self-citationInterpretation of mendelian randomization using one measure of an exposure that varies over time
Morris, T. T., Heron, J., Sanderson, E., Smith, G. D., & Tilling, K. (2021) · doi:10.1101/2021.11.18.21266515 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Self-citationExposure to early childhood maltreatment and its effect over time on social cognition
Crawford, K. M., Choi, K., Davis, K. A., Zhu, Y., Soare, T. W., Smith, A. D. A. C., Germine, L. T., & Dunn, E. C. (2020) · Development and Psychopathology · doi:10.1017/s095457942000139x · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Self-citationA Bayesian approach to investigate life course hypotheses involving continuous exposures
Madathil, S. A., Joseph, L., Hardy, R., Rousseau, M., & Nicolau, B. F. (2018) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyy107 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationFarooq, B., Russell, A. E., Howe, L. D., Herbert, A., Smith, A. D. A. C., Fisher, H. L., Baldwin, J. R., Arseneault, L., Danese, A., & Mars, B. (2024) · Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/jcpp.13986 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Self-citationDunn, E. C., Crawford, K. M., Soare, T. W., Button, K. S., Raffeld, M. R., Smith, A. D. A. C., Penton‐Voak, I. S., & Munafo, M. R. (2018) · Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/jcpp.12881 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Self-citationSensitive Periods for the Effect of Child Maltreatment on Psychopathology Symptoms in Adolescence
Dunn, E. C., Busso, D. S., Davis, K. A., Smith, A. D. A. C., Mitchell, C. M., Tiemeier, H. W., & Susser, E. (2023) · Complex Psychiatry · doi:10.1159/000530120 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Self-citationZubizarreta, D., & Beccia, A. (2025) · Social Science & Medicine (1967) · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.117712 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Zhu, Y., Simpkin, A. J., Suderman, M. J., Lussier, A. A., Walton, E., Dunn, E. C., & Smith, A. D. A. C. (2020) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwaa246 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Self-citationAssociations between diet quality and depression, anxiety, and fatigue in multiple sclerosis
Saul, A., Taylor, B. V., Blizzard, L., Simpson, S., Oddy, W. H., Probst, Y., Black, L. J., Ponsonby, A., Broadley, S., Lechner‐Scott, J., et al. (2022) · Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.msard.2022.103910 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Wagner, M., Grodstein, F., Leffondré, K., Samieri, C., & Proust‐Lima, C. (2021) · BMC Medical Research Methodology · doi:10.1186/s12874-021-01403-w · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Lussier, A. A., Zhu, Y., Smith, B. J., Simpkin, A. J., Smith, A. D. A. C., Suderman, M. J., Walton, E., Ressler, K. J., & Dunn, E. C. (2022) · Epigenetics · doi:10.1080/15592294.2022.2028072 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationCrawford, K. M., Zhu, Y., Davis, K. A., Ernst, S. C., Jacobsson, K., Nishimi, K. M., Smith, A. D. A. C., & Dunn, E. C. (2020) · European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1007/s00787-020-01594-5 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Self-citationHardi, F. A., Peckins, M. K., Mitchell, C. M., McLoyd, V. C., Jeanne Brooks-gunn, B., Hyde, L. W., & Monk, C. S. (2024) · Development and Psychopathology · doi:10.1017/s0954579424001512 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
A framework for conducting GWAS using repeated measures data with an application to childhood BMI
Burrows, K., Heiskala, A., Bradfield, J. P., Balkhiyarova, Z., Ning, L., Boissel, M., Chan, Y.-M., Froguel, P., Bonnefond, A., Hakonarson, H. H., et al. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-53687-3 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Self-citationBaranyi, G., Welstead, M., Corley, J., Deary, I. J., Terrera, G. M., Redmond, P. H., Shortt, N., Taylor, A. M., Thompson, C. W., Cox, S. R., et al. (2022) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwac134 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Developmental Timing of Associations Among Parenting, Brain Architecture, and Mental Health
Michael, C., Gard, A. M., Tillem, S., Hardi, F. A., Dunn, E. C., Smith, A. D. A. C., McLoyd, V. C., Jeanne Brooks-gunn, B., Mitchell, C. M., Monk, C. S., et al. (2024) · Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2024.4376 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Self-citationA Bayesian approach to comparing common models of life-course epidemiology
Chumbley, J. R., Xu, W., Potente, C., Harris, K. M., & Shanahan, M. J. (2021) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyab073 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Lussier, A. A., Zhu, Y., Smith, B. J., Simpkin, A. J., Smith, A. D. A. C., Suderman, M. J., Walton, E., Relton, C. L., Ressler, K. J., & Dunn, E. C. (2022) · Biological Psychiatry Global Open Science · doi:10.1016/j.bpsgos.2022.04.002 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Self-citationMajor‐Smith, D., Halstead, I. N., Morgan, J., Tohidinik, H. R., Iles‐Caven, Y., Golding, J., & Northstone, K. (2023) · Religion Brain & Behavior · doi:10.1080/2153599x.2022.2156584 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Tennant, P. W. G., Arnold, K. F., Berrie, L., Ellison, G. T. H., & Gilthorpe, M. S. (2017) · White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Lukomskyj, N., Allman-Farinelli, M. A., Shi, Y., & Rangan, A. (2021) · Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics · doi:10.1111/jhn.12841 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
López-López, J. A., Tilling, K. M., Pearson, R. M., Fazel, M. S., Washbrook, E., Zhu, Y., Smith, B. J., Dunn, E. C., & Smith, A. D. A. C. (2024) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291724001090 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationA Life Course Approach to Women’s Health
Hardy, R., Kuh, D. J., & Mishra, G. D. (2023) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192864642.003.0023 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationYi, Y., Guo, C., Zheng, Y., Chen, S., Lin, C., Lau, A. K. H., Wong, M. C. S., & Bishai, D. M. (2024) · Diabetes Care · doi:10.2337/dc24-1041 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Plamondon, A., Racine, N. M., McDonald, S., Tough, S., & Madigan, S. L. (2021) · Development and Psychopathology · doi:10.1017/s0954579421000353 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Tian, J., Blizzard, L., Campbell, J. A., Gall, S., Dwyer, T., & Venn, A. (2023) · Quality of Life Research · doi:10.1007/s11136-023-03497-9 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Gadd, S. C., Tennant, P. W. G., Heppenstall, A. J., Boehnke, J. R., & Gilthorpe, M. S. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0225217 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Elhakeem, A., Hughes, R. A., Tilling, K. M., Cousminer, D. L., Jackowski, S. A., Cole, T. J., Kwong, A. S. F., Li, Z., Grant, S. F. A., Baxter-Jones, A. D. G., et al. (2021) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2021.05.26.21257519 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationSaul, A., Taylor, B. V., Blizzard, C. L., Simpson, S., Probst, Y., Black, L. J., Ponsonby, A., Broadley, S., Lechner‐Scott, J., & van der Mei, I. A. F. (2022) · Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.msard.2022.104415 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Saul, A., Taylor, B. V., Blizzard, L., Simpson, S., Oddy, W. H., Shivappa, N., Hébert, J., Black, L. J., Ponsonby, A., Broadley, S., et al. (2024) · Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.msard.2024.105468 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Body fatness across the adult life course and ovarian cancer risk
Ritonja, J. A., Madathil, S. A., Nicolau, B. F., L’Espérance, K., Ho, V., Abrahamowicz, M., & Koushik, A. (2024) · European Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s10654-024-01161-1 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Major‐Smith, D., Halstead, I. N., Morgan, J., Tohidinik, H. R., Iles‐Caven, Y., Golding, J., & Northstone, K. (2022) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/brykn · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Nichols, E. L., Bindas, A., Atshan, S., Chang, H. H., Chiang, Y., Henn, B. C., Hayes‐Larson, E., Keller, K. P., Kezios, K., Shih, R. A., et al. (2025) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.70971 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Fraser, B. J., Alishah, Z., Magnussen, C. G., Venn, A., Dwyer, T., & Cleland, V. J. (2021) · Journal of science and medicine in sport · doi:10.1016/j.jsams.2021.07.007 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Childhood Trauma and Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms Across AdolescencePreprint
Kwong, A. S. F., Maddalena, J. M., Croft, J., Heron, J., & Leckie, G. (2019) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/19002519 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationSmith, B. J., Lussier, A. A., Cerutti, J., Simpkin, A. J., Smith, A. D. A. C., Suderman, M. J., Walton, E., Schaid, D. J., & Dunn, E. C. (2021) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2021.06.28.21259426 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationIntroduction to the third edition
Kuh, D. J., Blodgett, J. M., Hanson, M. A., Susser, E., & Ben‐Shlomo, Y. (2025) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780198895961.003.0001 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Eldeeb, S. Y., McKenna, B. G., Lake, M. T., Hoffman, N., Lussier, A. A., Walton, E., Simpkin, A. J., Smith, A. D. A. C., Zar, H. J., Stein, D. J., et al. (2026) · Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/jcpp.70148 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationYang, H., 郭统帅, Liu, Z., Yang, L., Yang, Y., Xie, J., Ren, J., He, M., Chu, C., Li, C., et al. (2026) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/s12916-026-04742-x · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Bakirci, S., Smith, A. D. A. C., & Pingault, J. (2026) · European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1007/s00787-026-03011-9 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationA Life Course Approach to Women’s Health
Mishra, G. D., Kuh, D. J., & Hardy, R. (2023) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192864642.003.0001 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationCOVID-19 across the Life Course
Kuh, D. J., & Blodgett, J. M. (2024) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780197625217.003.0002 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
A Bayesian functional approach to test models of life course epidemiology over continuous time
Bodelet, J., Potente, C., Blanc, G., Chumbley, J. R., Imeri, H., Hofer, S. M., Harris, K. M., Terrera, G. M., & Shanahan, M. J. (2024) · International Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/ije/dyad190 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Marini, S., Davis, K. A., Soare, T. W., Suderman, M. J., Simpkin, A. J., Smith, A. D. A. C., Wolf, E. J., Relton, C. L., & Dunn, E. C. (2018) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/355743 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationLussier, A. A., Zhu, Y., Smith, B. J., Cerutti, J., Simpkin, A. J., Smith, A. D. A. C., Suderman, M. J., Walton, E., Relton, C. L., Ressler, K. J., et al. (2021) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2021.06.28.21259423
Self-citationMajor‐Smith, D., Dvořák, T., Elhakeem, A., Lawlor, D. A., Tilling, K. M., & Smith, A. D. A. C. (2023) · medRxiv · doi:10.1101/2023.01.24.23284935
Self-citationDelker, E., Gahagan, S., Burrows, R. A., Correa‐Burrows, P., East, P. L., Lozoff, B., & Blanco, E. (2023) · Advances in Life Course Research · doi:10.1016/j.alcr.2023.100546
Methods in Modeling Life Course
Guillou, A. L., & Wild, P. P. (2023) · Handbook series in occupational health sciences · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-94023-2_13-1
Methods in Modeling Life Course
Guillou, A. L., & Wild, P. P. (2023) · Handbook series in occupational health sciences · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-30492-7_13
Chang, L., Wu, W., Chiang, W., & Chiang, T. (2025) · European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1007/s00787-025-02870-y
Rutter, L. A., & Hamilton, L. J. (2026) · Alzheimer s & Dementia · doi:10.1002/alz.71672
- Authors
- Smith, A. D. A. C., Hardy, R., Heron, J., Joinson, C. J., Lawlor, D. A., Macdonald-Wallis, C., & Tilling, K.
- Affiliations
- University of Bristol (GB)
- MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Smith, Andrew D.A.C.
- ORCID
- Venue
- International Journal of Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2016-07-01
- Volume
- 45
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- dyw164
- ISSN
- 0300-5771 (ISSN-L)
- 1464-3685
- PMC
- PMC5841633
- OpenAlex
- W2344236281
- Cited by
- 59
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 3.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- International Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UWE Research Repository (UWE Bristol) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Explore Bristol Research (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust (NF-SI-0611-10196, 10196, MC_UU_12013/5, 102215, MC_UU_12013/9)
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (NF-SI-0611-10196, SI-0611-10196)
- University of Bristol (MC_UU_12013/9, NF-SI-0611-10196, MC_UU_12013, MC_UU_12013/5)
- Medical Research Council (102215, G1000726, MC_UU_12013_5, MC_UU_12013, MR/J011932/1, MC_PC_15018, NF-SI-0611-10196, MC_UU_12019/2, MC_UU_12013/9)
- Economic and Social Research Council (NF-SI-0611-10196, MC_UU_12019/2, RES-000-)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Birth, Development, and Health
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Keywords
- life course exposure, continuous exposure, hypothesis selection, sensitive period, critical period, accumulation, effect modification, confounding, missing data, least angle regression, birth weight, gestational weight gain, adolescent depression
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Birth Weight, Body Weight, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Depression, Family, Female, Humans, Life Change Events, Pregnancy, Regression Analysis, Socioeconomic Factors, Stress, Psychological, Weight Gain, Causality, Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic, Adolescent Development
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review