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Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share
Open accessAbstract
The recent fall of labor's share of GDP in numerous countries is well-documented, but its causes are poorly understood. We sketch a “superstar firm” model where industries are increasingly characterized by “winner take most” competition, leading a small number of highly profitable (and low labor share) firms to command growing market share. Building on Autor et al. (2017), we evaluate and confirm two core claims of the superstar firm hypothesis: the concentration of sales among firms within industries has risen across much of the private sector; and industries with larger increases in concentration exhibit a larger decline in labor's share.
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“The empirical literature also tends to find higher markups for larger, more productive firms.12”
From The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms* (2020) · cites this paper as [12]
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Cites
Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share: Accumulation or Scarcity?
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- 10.1353/eca.2013.0016 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1093/qje/qjt032 · DOI · Paper page
- Rognlie Matthew, 2015, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1
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On the political economy of industrial, labor and social reforms as complements
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“This corresponds to the empirical result that higher market concentration in the ‘‘new’’ sectors is an important driver of the decrease in the share of the value going to labor (Autor et al., 2017, 2020).”
InfluentialBudzinski, O., Gaenssle, S., & Stöhr, A. (2020) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3629066 · Cited by 9
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“In particular, we abstract from the growing literature on changes in the labor share, see Karabarbounis and Neiman (2014), Koh et al. (2016) or Autor et al. (2017).”
InfluentialMarkups Across the Income Distribution: Measurement and ImplicationsPreprint
Sangani, K. (2022) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4092068 · Cited by 9
“…put forward to explain this phenomenon relate the rise in markups to changes in the supply side of the economy, such as a decline in antitrust enforcement (Gutiérrez and Philippon 2018), the rise of superstar firms (Autor et al. 2017), and structural technological change (De Loecker et al. 2021).”
BackgroundLee, J. M., & Lee, K. (2024) · Journal of International Development · doi:10.1002/jid.3903 · Cited by 25
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“In this way, the superstar model led to increased concentration of production in certain country sectors, as Autor et al. (2017) show for the United States from 1982 to 2012.”
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The Global Rise of Asset Prices and the Decline of the Labor SharePreprint
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“They show that an increase in the industry concentration rate of the largest 20 companies in the industry (Con20) it is related to an increase of Tobin’s Q of 0.411 (Autor et al., 2017, footnote 32).”
InfluentialMarket power of railway operators under different vertical structures
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“Of course, a parallel body of research suggests the supply of leading firms has contracted , at least when measured by market concentration among the largest firms in the relevant sectoral categories in rich democracies (e.g., manufacturing and retail trade; Autor et al. 2017; Philippon 2019).”
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The distributional effects of labour market deregulation: Wage share and fixed-term contracts
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“While Autor et al. (2017) concluded that industries where concentration levels rose the most displayed faster rise in productivity levels.”
Podobnik, B., Dabic, M., Wild, D., & di Matteo, T. (2022) · Technology and Society · doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2022.102148 · Cited by 7
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“One of the more prominent arguments for this relationship begins with “a superstar firm explanation” (Autor et al., 2017).”
BackgroundAghion, P., Cherif, R., & Hasanov, F. (2021) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oso/9780192846938.003.0006 · Cited by 8
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“…technology and automation (Acemoglu and Restrepo 2018; Karabarbounis and Neiman 2014), market forces, institutions and policies (Acemoglu and Robinson 2015; Autor et al. 2017; Azmat, Manning, and Reenen 2011; Blanchard and Giavazzi 2003; Ciminelli, Duval, and Furceri 2018; Young and Zuleta 2018).”
BackgroundUnemployment and Income Distribution: Some Extensions of Shaikh’s Analysis
Meloni, W. P., & Stirati, A. (2020) · Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series · doi:10.36687/inetwp137 · Cited by 5
“Among them: industry concentration and the consequent rising market power (Barkai, 2019); the emergence of the innovative ‘superstar firms’ (Autor et al., 2017; OECD, 2018); the transition toward a more capital-intensive economy focused on intellectual property (Koh et al.”
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“Im Sinne der Hypothese, dass besonders produktive und innovative Unternehmen an Bedeutung gewinnen, könnten sich Arbeitsplätze zu eben diesen Unternehmen verlagern (vgl. Autor et al. 2017b sowie Kehring und Vincent 2017).”
BackgroundSectoral Inflation Persistence, Market Concentration and Imperfect Common Knowledge
Kato, R., Okuda, T., & Tsuruga, T. (2020) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3562060 · Cited by 7
Income and Wealth Inequality in France: Developments and Links over the Long Term
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“…the concentration of capital income within the highest income groups is beyond the scope of this article; however, inte‑ rested readers may refer to Autor et al. (2017) and Benhabib & Bisin (2018).2 The Increasing Concentration of Labour Income Although the increase in high incomes can be…”
BackgroundAntitrust Harm and CausationPreprint
Hovenkamp, H. J. (2021) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3771399 · Cited by 7
DIRECTORATE FOR SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION COMMITTEE FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL POLICY
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Beyond borders: how spillovers and commercial networks shape European productivity
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Carayannis, E., Vinzenzi, M., Draper, J., & Kanellos, N. (2023) · Journal of the Knowledge Economy · doi:10.1007/s13132-023-01436-0 · Cited by 6
“…such as IT, have concluded that a more concentrated distribution of the benefits of new technologies can lead to a “winner-take-most” pattern and thus slow down the diffusion of new technologies (see Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2014; Stiglitz, 2014; Autor et al., 2017; Gutierrez & Philippon, 2017).”
Software investment and organizational change: Evidence from panel data
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“On the aggregate, there appears to be plenty of evidence substan-tiating the assertion that the labor share of GDP is following a downward trend [10, 48], although this evidence is not necessarily pervasive across all sectors [19, 24], and [43], among others, claim that jobs in innovative sectors,…”
The City Re-centered? Local Inequality Mitigation in the 21st Century
Ogorzalek, T. K. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009029841.007 · Cited by 7
Labor Market Concentration and Worker Contributions to Health Insurance Premiums
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“Since labor markets are generally smaller than an MSA (Autor et al., 2017, 2020; Azar et al., 2019; Azar et al., 2020; Benmelech et al., 2018), we first constructed the measure at the county-industry level, then took a weighted average of county-industries based on the relative total number of…”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialDer Entwurf zur 10. GWB Novelle: Interventionismus oder Laissez-faire?
Budzinski, O., Gaenssle, S., & Stöhr, A. (2020) · List Forum für Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik · doi:10.1007/s41025-020-00204-1 · Cited by 6
“Zum einen enthüllen Makrostudien eine insgesamt sinkende Wettbewerbsintensität quer durch eine Vielzahl von Branchen und Industrien (inter alia, Autor et al. 2017; Gutiérrez und Philippon 2018; Grullon et al. 2019; De Loecker et al. 2020; De Loecker und Eeckhout 2020), für welche insbesondere auch…”
BackgroundImpact of Development Zone Construction on Labor Share in China
Liu, Z.-Y., & Yang, Y.-L. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12093642 · Cited by 6
“[11] noted that industry monopolies have caused a decline in the US labor income share.”
BackgroundCorporate Law Versus Social Autonomy: Law as Social Hazard
Galanis, M. (2020) · Law and Critique · doi:10.1007/s10978-020-09267-7 · Cited by 6
Lee, J.-Y., Cho, Y., & Shin, J. (2019) · Energies · doi:10.3390/en12020288 · Cited by 6
Capital Taxation and Market PowerPreprint
Clausing, K. A. (2023) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4419599 · Cited by 6
“Recent work, including Autor et al. (2017, 2020) and Azar et al. (2022), find a relationship between the rising market dominance of large companies and the declining labor share of income.”
BackgroundColciago, A., & Mechelli, R. (2020) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3652023 · Cited by 6
Technology, Market Regulations, and Labor Share Dynamics
O'Mahony, M., Vecchi, M., & Venturini, F. (2019) · ADB Institute Series on Development Economics · doi:10.1007/978-981-13-7803-4_4 · Cited by 6
Globalization, Structural Transformation, and the Labor Income Share
Suzuki, K., Oishi, Y., & Paul, S. (2019) · ADB institute series on development economics · doi:10.1007/978-981-13-7803-4_5 · Cited by 15
The retail execution quality landscape
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Optimal Taxation of Capital in the Presence of Declining Labor Share
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“(2)See Elsby, Hobijn, and Sahin (2013), Karabarbounis and Neiman (2014), Autor, Dorn, Katz, Patterson, and Reenen (2017), Barkai (2019), De Loecker, Eeckhout, and Unger (2019), Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019), and Farhi and Gourio (2018).”
Generative AI: Catalyst for Growth or Harbinger of Premature De-Professionalization?
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Liang, F., & Liu, Y. (2024) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0298081 · Cited by 5
Secular stagnation and monopoly capitalism
Sawyer, M. (2023) · Journal of Post Keynesian Economics · doi:10.1080/01603477.2023.2270949 · Cited by 6
“( Davis and Orhangazi 2021 , EMPHASIS added, 23) Autor et al (2017) also report on concentration in US four digit industries 1982–2012, and find “a remarkably consistent upward trend in concentration”.”
BackgroundContract manufacturing, market competition, and labor productivity in US manufacturing industries
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Çelik, O. (2021) · Journal of Economic Studies · doi:10.1108/jes-02-2021-0072 · Cited by 5
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“In particular, Autor et al. (2017) describe “superstar firms” where labor’s share fell relatively more.”
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“There is ample empirical evidence (for example, Autor et al. (2020)) that this nexus”
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“Jobs on the edges of the skill distribution are more resistant to the penetration of robots and computer codes, in the sense that they represent tasks where, for distinct reasons, human intervention remains essential (Autor & Dorn, 2013; Autor et al., 2017).”
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“…industry concentration are broadly of technological or political nature, with work focusing on channels such as the efficient scale of operation (Autor et al. (2017), Autor et al. (2020)), the decrease in domestic competition (Guti´errez and Philippon (2017)), and the increasing importance of…”
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“Such capital-intensive technology allows innovators to raise labor productivity and lower variable unit costs sufficiently to reduce total unit costs to outsell their rivals and drive them out of business (Perri 2014; Tsoulfidis 2015a; Shaikh 2016: 259–61, 315, 730; Acemoglu and Restrepo 2017; Autor et al. 2017).”
BackgroundProduct Market Structure and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Euro Area
Ferrando, A., Mcadam, P., Petroulakis, F., & Vives, X. (2021) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3991359 · Cited by 4
“There is, though, much less agreement on the causes and consequences of these apparent trends (Autor et al. 2017, Traina 2018), while the issue seems to be less salient for Europe (Cavalleri et al., 2019).”
BackgroundBajgar, M., Calligaris, S., Calvino, F., Criscuolo, C., & Timmis, J. (2019) · OECD science, technology and industry working papers · doi:10.1787/c917d518-en · Cited by 13
“Autor et al. (2017b) and Barkai (2017) show evidence for the US and discuss some potential drivers of the observed trends.”
BackgroundInfluentialCybersecurity risk and bank competition
Fuszder, M. H. R., Abdullah, M., Sulong, Z., & Abakah, E. (2026) · Journal of international financial markets, institutions, and money · doi:10.1016/j.intfin.2026.102313 · Cited by 3
Qian, Y., Xu, Z.-S., Qin, Y., & Škare, M. (2026) · Journal of Innovation & Knowledge · doi:10.1016/j.jik.2025.100871 · Cited by 3
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“Previous research has indicated that a persistently low LIS may not only exacerbate inequality and social imbalances but also weaken domestic consumption potential and constrain the long-term drivers of economic growth (Autor et al. 2017; Karabarbounis and Neiman 2014).”
Bashokoh, M. I., Tóth, G., & Ali, O. (2025) · Economies · doi:10.3390/economies13050136 · Cited by 3
“Notably, within this decade, the high concentration markedly reduced the numbers of active fi rms and workers, demonstrating a direct relationship between corporate concentration and the number of active competitors and employees in the industry (Autor et al., 2017, 2020; Cao et al., 2023).”
InfluentialGlobal Value Chain Participation and Firms' Responses to Exchange Rate Fluctuations
Jiang, C., Sun, F.-W., & Zhang, Z. (2024) · China & World Economy · doi:10.1111/cwe.12548 · Cited by 3
Market concentration and productivity: evidence from the UK
Savagar, A., Aguda, O., Galanakis, Y., & Wu, J.-W. (2024) · Fiscal studies · doi:10.1111/1475-5890.12381 · Cited by 3
Metadata
- Authors
- Autor, D., Dorn, D., Katz, L. F., Patterson, C., & Reenen, J. V.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- MIT Department of Economics and Sloan School, Cambridge, MA 02142 (e-mail: )
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2017-05-01
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 180-185
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2585432763
- Cited by
- 530
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 39 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 92 · 2020: 86 · 2019: 69 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 19
- FWCI
- 102.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/M010341/1)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Merger and Competition Analysis
- Keywords
- labor share of GDP, superstar firms, winner-take-all competition, market concentration, declining labor share
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