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Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share
Open accessAbstract
The recent fall of labor's share of GDP in numerous countries is well-documented, but its causes are poorly understood. We sketch a “superstar firm” model where industries are increasingly characterized by “winner take most” competition, leading a small number of highly profitable (and low labor share) firms to command growing market share. Building on Autor et al. (2017), we evaluate and confirm two core claims of the superstar firm hypothesis: the concentration of sales among firms within industries has risen across much of the private sector; and industries with larger increases in concentration exhibit a larger decline in labor's share.
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“The empirical literature also tends to find higher markups for larger, more productive firms.12”
From The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms* (2020) · cites this paper as [12]
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Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share: Accumulation or Scarcity?
Rognlie, M. (2016) · Brookings Papers on Economic Activity · doi:10.1353/eca.2016.0002 · Cited by 390
Recent Declines in Labor's Share in US Income: A Preliminary Neoclassical Account
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Research works printed but not linked: 3
- 10.1353/eca.2013.0016 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1093/qje/qjt032 · DOI · Paper page
- Rognlie Matthew, 2015, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1
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Endogeneity-corrected stochastic frontier with market imperfections
Maiti, D., & Neogi, C. (2024) · Empirical Economics · doi:10.1007/s00181-024-02577-0 · Cited by 4
Employment and technology: Creative creation or creative destruction? An asymmetric analysis
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MINIMUM WAGE AND MANUFACTURING LABOR SHARE: EVIDENCE FROM NORTH MACEDONIA
Petreski, M., & Pehkonen, J. (2023) · Ekonomska Misao i Praksa · doi:10.17818/emip/2024/2.2 · Cited by 3
“…literature on the development and causes of the labor share decline in the advanced economies; starting from the earlier prominent contributions like Acemoglu (2003) and Blanchard and Giavazzi (2003), to recent contributions like Autor et al. (2017), Atkeson (2020) and Kehrig and Vincent (2021).”
BackgroundForeign direct investment openness and income classes in Europe around the Great Recession
Arestis, P., Barcena-Martin, E. M., Fuentes, N. M., & Pérez‐Moreno, S. (2023) · Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja · doi:10.1080/1331677x.2022.2163270 · Cited by 1
“Furthermore, the international mobility of capital, relative to labour, could impair governments ’ ability to tax capital and might generate comparatively higher taxes on labour income, further increasing inequality (Autor et al., 2017).”
Technological Adoption as a Social Process in Food Centres in Singapore
Raghunath, N. (2021) · Science Technology & Society · doi:10.1177/0971721821995596 · Cited by 3
“In particular, these methods often consider only the eventual results of technological implementation such as job losses (Autor et al., 2006, 2017; Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2014; Frey & Osborne, 2013).”
BackgroundMethodWorker surveillance capital, labour share, and productivity
Askenazy, P. (2021) · doi:10.1093/oep/gpab015 · Cited by 3
Takahashi, H., & Riche, A. L. (2021) · Research in Economics · doi:10.1016/j.rie.2021.01.002 · Cited by 3
Antitrust: What Counts as Consumer Welfare
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Wage inequality and establishment heterogeneity
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Competition and Inequality: Aiyagari meets Bertrand and Cournot
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What Explains Labor's Declining Share of Revenue in Major League Baseball?
Bradbury, J. (2019) · International Journal of Sport Finance · doi:10.32731/ijsf.162.052021.03 · Cited by 3
“Autor et al. (2017) found that increased productivity likely fostered industry concentration and that a declining labor share is expected due to decreased value-added from labor among these more profitable firms.”
Market Concentration in Homebuilding
Cosman, J., & Quintero, L. (2018) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3303984 · Cited by 3
“Autor et al. (2017a) and De Loecker and Eeckhout (2017) document this transition; Galston and Hendrickson (2018) discuss potential policy responses. Several studies have provided evidence that this secular decline in competition is affecting macroeconomic dynamics. De Loecker and Eeckhout (2017) connect the increased…”
BackgroundResultInfluentialWe Can Have a High-Wage America
Mccormack, M. J., & Madrick, J. (2018) · doi:10.1080/05775132.2018.1423667 · Cited by 3
“Another study by a group of economists (Autor et al. 2017) found that industries with high levels of concentration had a low wage share compared to revenues.”
BackgroundImproving Employment and Earnings in 21st Century Labor Markets: An Introduction
Groshen, E. L., & Holzer, H. J. (2019) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3488203 · Cited by 3
Are We Horses? Rethinking Data as Labor
Kim, T. W., & Vincent, N. (2026) · Philosophy & Technology · doi:10.1007/s13347-026-01033-4 · Cited by 2
“Economists who are skeptical about a simple “you own your data, then sell it” model have suggested more collective and institutional solutions.”
InfluentialSustaining ecosystems amid geopolitical conflicts: Evidence from Chinese EMNEs
Sun, Y., Lin, Y., & Shi, Y. (2025) · Journal of International Management · doi:10.1016/j.intman.2025.101324 · Cited by 2
Wang, M., & Ma, L.-N. (2025) · Administrative Sciences · doi:10.3390/admsci15100381 · Cited by 2
“Debates persist regarding the scope of these effects, with disagreements about their magnitude, geographical reach (local vs. national), and how they interact with other factors, such as automation or minimum wage policies (Bloom et al., 2016; Autor et al., 2017).”
Tax Enforcement and Corporate Labor Income Share: Evidence From a Quasi‐Natural Experiment in China
Xiong, J., Chen, L., Su, D., & Chen, K. (2025) · Managerial and Decision Economics · doi:10.1002/mde.4565 · Cited by 3
“…studies have shown that the decline in labor income share has been a global trend since the 1980s, leading to increased income inequality and wealth disparity, which in turn can cause social, economic, and political problems (Daudey and García-Peñalosa 2007; Piketty 2014; Autor et al. 2017, 2020).”
The decline of the wage share in value-added: what have we learned from North African firms?
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Competitive dynamism in nascent markets: trademarks and superstar firm entry in the metaverse
Bradley, W., & Kolev, J. (2024) · Academy of Management Proceedings · doi:10.1080/13662716.2024.2419599 · Cited by 2
“…and Veldkamp 2018; Davis and Haltiwanger 2024), that industries are becoming increasingly concentrated (De Loecker, Eeckhout, and Unger 2020; Grullon, Larkin, and Michaely 2019), and that superstar firms are creating anti-competitive environments (Autor et al. 2017, 2020; Schwellnus et al. 2018).”
Bu, X., Zhang, Y., & Xing, Y.-F. (2024) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106807 · Cited by 2
Market concentration, promoter ownership and firm performance: evidence from Indian corporate firms
Roy, U., & Chakraborty, I. (2024) · Indian Economic Review · doi:10.1007/s41775-024-00217-z · Cited by 2
Bertram, G., & Rosenberg, B. (2024) · New Zealand Economic Papers · doi:10.1080/00779954.2024.2330894 · Cited by 2
“…on factor shares includes many papers that attempt to find econometric explanations for changes in the ‘labour share’ and ‘capital share’ (for example Autor et al. , 2017, 2020, Blanchard 1997, Azmat et al. , 2012; Bengsston & Waldenström, 2018; Bengsston, Rubolino, & Waldenström, 2020;…”
InfluentialFinancialization, earnings volatility, and firm turbulence in the risk society
Chappe, R. (2024) · International Review of Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/02692171.2024.2333328 · Cited by 2
“For this reason, sales and earnings rather than employment are the proper measures of concentration (Autor et al. 2017).”
Zheng, J.-M., Oh, T., Dickson, G., Hedlund, D. P., Zhong, T., & Bosscher, V. D. (2024) · SAGE Open · doi:10.1177/21582440241244972 · Cited by 2
“For example, Autor et al. (2017) used 4-digit SIC classifications to examine the evolution of concentration across 676 industries between 1982 and 2012.”
Çeli̇k, A., & Koç, A. (2024) · Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis · doi:10.25229/beta.1309833 · Cited by 4
Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade Liberalisation: A Generalized Cournot Oligopoly Approach
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Firm leverage and labour share: evidence from China
Liu, W., Yang, Z., & An, J. (2023) · Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja · doi:10.1080/1331677x.2023.2183518 · Cited by 2
“In addition, this paper also uses interest expense per worker to measure it in robustness tests (Autor et al., 2017).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialPilc, M., Woźniak-Jęchorek, B., Woźniak, K., & Piątek, D. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-83360-2_7 · Cited by 5
Growth, Concentration and Inequality in a Unified Schumpeter Mark I + II modelPreprint
Mellacher, P. (2021) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3938204 · Cited by 2
“As already noted by Autor et al. (2017, 2020), market concentration has risen from the 1980s to the 2010s, and this increase in concentration has been associated with a fall in the labor share.”
ResultMethodological Issues of Modern Competition Policy
Rozanova, N. (2021) · Studies in Russian Economic Development · doi:10.1134/s1075700721050129 · Cited by 2
Ducci, F. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108867528.003
A note on labor share, price markup and monetary policy
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Ferey, A., Hau-fler, A., & Perroni, C. (2020) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3662058 · Cited by 2
“This property is akin to that of the ‘superstar firm’ model of Autor et al. (2017a, 2017b), and is consistent with empirical evidence on ‘export superstars’ (Freund and Pierola, 2015; Bernard et al., 2018).”
Goerke, L. (2020) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2020.101897 · Cited by 2
“This statement can be accentuated by findings that concentration of industries has increased considerably in the United States in recent decades (Autor et al.”
Introduction – Travail, emploi, société: que nous réserve l'avenir?
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Lianos, I. (2019) · Reconciling Efficiency and Equity · doi:10.1017/9781108628105.005 · Cited by 2
Decomposing the growth of the high-skilled wage premium in an advanced economy open to trade
Edwards, T., & Lücke, M. (2019) · doi:10.1016/j.qref.2019.02.007 · Cited by 2
Zilian, S., & Zilian, L. (2018) · Chancen und Grenzen der Nachhaltigkeitstransformation · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-22438-7_9 · Cited by 2
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Blix, M. (2020) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3589216 · Cited by 2
“24 Autor et al. (2017).”
MARKET POWER AND INEQUALITY: THE REVENGE OF THE RENTIERS
(2017) · doi:10.18356/584caae1-en · Cited by 2
Understanding the decline in the U.S. labor share: Evidence from occupational tasks
Lehn, C. V. (2018) · European Economic Review · doi:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.07.005 · Cited by 40
Xu, H., Chen, B., Li, G.-C., & Peng, C.-Y. (2026) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2025.2536738 · Cited by 1
“However, since the 1980s, there has been a widespread decline in the labour share of income globally (Autor et al. 2017), challenging the foundational assumption of macro-economic theories (Kaldor 1957).”
Can government procurement increase the labor share? Evidence from China
Liu, X., Shi, N., Tian, G., & Zhang, Z. (2026) · China Journal of Accounting Research · doi:10.1016/j.cjar.2025.100461
Dou, W., Zhang, S.-L., Wu, Z., Ji, R., & Hao, Y. (2026) · Energy Economics · doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109073 · Cited by 1
Supic, N., & Josifidis, K. (2025) · Forum for Social Economics · doi:10.1080/07360932.2025.2567464 · Cited by 1
Monopsony in labor markets: Not important in the aggregate
Alpanda, S. (2025) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107274 · Cited by 1
The effects of imperfect competition and antitrust measures in a three-sector OLG model
Stauvermann, P., Hu, J., & Kumar, R. (2025) · JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS · doi:10.1007/s00712-025-00912-2 · Cited by 1
“…evidence of declining labor share in developed countries since the last 40 years (Blanchard 1997, Elsby et al. 2013, Karabarbounis and Neiman 2014, 2018, Piketty 2014, Dao et al. 2017, Autor et al., 2017, 2020, Barkai 2020, Barkai and Benzell 2018, Reenen and Patterson 2017, Affeldt et al., 2021).”
Democracy, Inequality, and AntitrustPreprint
Allen, M. O., Scheve, K., & Stasavage, D. (2025) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4358176 · Cited by 1
“Others have found that the fall in the labor share of income in the United States is driven in part by economic concentration and the rise of “superstar” firms (Autor et al., 2017, 2020).”
Factor Substitution Possibilities, Labor Share Dynamics, and Inequality in an Age of Intangibles
Velic, A. (2025) · Review of Income and Wealth · doi:10.1111/roiw.12727 · Cited by 4
“According to the superstar firm hypothesis of Autor et al. (2017, 2020), more concentrated industries exhibit greater deterioration of the labor share.”
Yeerken, A., & Deng, F. (2024) · Economic and Labour Relations Review · doi:10.1017/elr.2025.1 · Cited by 1
“In addition, Autor et al (2017) and Grullon et al (2019) revealed a common phenomenon from empirical surveys at both industry and corporate levels: a few ‘ top enterprises ’ stand out in each industry, forming a pyramid structure where a few large enterprises dominate the market and accumulate a…”
Multi-employer bargaining in New Zealand within the rise and fall of labour market neoliberalism
Peetz, D. (2024) · New Zealand journal of employment relations · doi:10.24135/nzjer.v48ix.161 · Cited by 1
“Concentration of product markets has demonstrably increased since the 1980s (Autor et al., 2017; Data Team, 2016; Van Reenen & Patterson, 2017), with very high concentration in areas, such as grocery retailing (Commerce Commission New Zealand, 2022).”
Maiti, D. (2024) · International Journal of Economic Theory · doi:10.1111/ijet.12407 · Cited by 2
Environmental capital and sustainable income in Ethiopia
Adem, M. (2024) · Sustainability in Environment · doi:10.1080/27658511.2024.2350800 · Cited by 1
“This result is consistent with theory and is supported by the labour’s significant contribution to GDP growth (Autor et al., 2017, 2020).”
Production Efficiency and Income Distribution with Competition Induced by Antitrust Measures
Stauvermann, P., & Kumar, R. (2023) · Journal of Risk and Financial Management · doi:10.3390/jrfm16090399 · Cited by 1
Monopolistic competition, rising markups, and optimal taxation of participation
Gürer, E. (2023) · Journal of Public Economic Theory · doi:10.1111/jpet.12661 · Cited by 1
Competition policy and the labor share
Zac, A., Casti, C., Decker, C., & Ezrachi, A. (2023) · Journal of Law, Economics & Organization · doi:10.1093/jleo/ewad008 · Cited by 1
Wage councils, product markups and wage markdowns: Evidence from Uruguay
Casacuberta, C., & Gándelman, N. (2022) · International Journal of Industrial Organization · doi:10.1016/j.ijindorg.2022.102916 · Cited by 2
Imperfect Competition, Real Estate Prices and New Stylized Facts
Kumar, R., & Stauvermann, P. (2022) · Journal of Risk and Financial Management · doi:10.3390/jrfm15030099 · Cited by 1
Labor Market Power in the American Political Economy
Naidu, S. (2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009029841.011 · Cited by 2
The American Political Economy
(2021) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009029841 · Cited by 68
Multinational Corporations Shape Global Value Chain Development
Qiang, C. Z., Liu, Y., & Steenbergen, V. (2021) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1683-3_ch2 · Cited by 4
Is industrial relations reform the road to recovery in monopsonistic labour markets?
Peetz, D. (2021) · Economic and Labour Relations Review · doi:10.1177/10353046211015786 · Cited by 1
“Other overseas research also points to increasing domination by a small number of buyers of labour – that is, employers (Autor et al., 2017).”
BackgroundThe Evolution of Financial Fragility: A Quantile Decomposition of Firm Balance Sheets
Davis, L. E., de Souza, J. D., & Hernandez, G. (2021) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3771962 · Cited by 1
Lyon, D. J. (2021) · doi:10.1080/05775132.2020.1847528 · Cited by 1
“We would expect that in highly concentrated industries with considerable amounts of power in the labor market, like manufacturing (Autor et al. 2017), wages will be less than competitive-market rates, absent unions; when that is the case, unions act as a correction and raise wages upward toward the…”
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Ducci, F. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108867528.005
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“This is consistent with other findings in the literature (e.g. Autor et al., 2017b; Schwellnus et al., 2018).”
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Bussolo, M., Dávalos, M., Karver, J., Lyu, X., Peragine, V., Torre, I., Apella, I., Capelle, D., Ceriani, L., Checchi, D., et al. (2018) · Toward a New Social Contract: Taking on Distributional Tensions in Europe and Central Asia · doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1353-5_ch2 · Cited by 1
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“…shift, including technological progress, trade exposure, and offshoring pressure, which are forces that have made substitutes increasingly competitive (e.g., Allen (2001), David et al. (2013), Pierce and Schott (2016), Dorn et al. (2017), Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019), Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020)).”
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“Furthermore, product market concentration in the U.S. corporate sector has been growing over time (e.g., Autor et al. 2017).4 While this trend does not necessarily indicate increasing labor market concentration, it is consistent with it.5 As pointed out by Naidu, Posner, and Weyl (2022,…”
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Alpanda, S., & Zubairy, S. (2021) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3958787 · Cited by 1
“In particular, Autor et al. (2017b) show that the change in the payroll share of value added in the 388 manufacturing industries has been negatively correlated with the change in the concentration ratios in these industries since 1987, and this negative correlation has strengthened over time.10 A…”
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Wage and employment by skill levels in technological evolution of South and East Europe
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Does Global Economic Integration affect Labour Income Share in India?
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Unstable Work in a Fissured Economy: Tracking Employment in Subcontractor Establishments in France
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“Labor share, a standard measure in the economic literature (Autor et al. 2017), captures the degree to which labor is a major cost relative to output.”
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Star Firms, Information Spillovers, and Predictable Industry-Level Outcomes
Chhaochharia, V., Kumar, A., Motahari, M., & Rantala, V. (2026) · Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis · doi:10.1017/s0022109026102610
“…investment, and research and development, which in turn has generated a sharp increase in their profits and an increased industry concentration in the United States (Autor, Dorn, Katz, Patterson, and Van Reenen (2017), Grullon, Larkin, and Michaely (2019), De Loecker, Eeckhout, and Unger (2020)).”
Metadata
- Authors
- Autor, D., Dorn, D., Katz, L. F., Patterson, C., & Reenen, J. V.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- MIT Department of Economics and Sloan School, Cambridge, MA 02142 (e-mail: )
- Venue
- American Economic Review
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2017-05-01
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 180-185
- ISSN
- 0002-8282 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2585432763
- Cited by
- 530
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 39 · 2025: 43 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 52 · 2021: 92 · 2020: 86 · 2019: 69 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 19
- FWCI
- 102.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Economic Review (publishedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- London School of Economics and Political Science Theses Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (submittedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/M010341/1)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economic Theory and Policy
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Merger and Competition Analysis
- Keywords
- labor share of GDP, superstar firms, winner-take-all competition, market concentration, declining labor share
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