The Broad Decline in Health and Human Capital of Americans Born after 1947
Abstract
I present evidence of a cross-cohort decline in the health and human capital of Americans, beginning with those born after 1947 and continuing until those born in the mid-1960s. Education, men’s wages, women’s maternal health (proxied by their infants’ birth weight), and mortality all exhibit trend breaks near the 1947 cohort, such that each outcome worsens for subsequent cohorts relative to prior trend. The decline is large enough to drive educational declines in the 1960s, increases in low birth weight in the 1980s, and mortality increases since 1999 and to contribute substantially to wage stagnation since the 1970s. (JEL I12, I26, J13, J16, J24, J31)
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The few studies that have examined birth cohort patterns have identified worsening mortality for cohorts born after 1945.
“The few studies that have examined birth cohort patterns have identified worsening mortality for cohorts born after 1945.”
From Insights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics (2026) · cites this paper as [17]
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The Broad Decline in Health and Human Capital of Americans Born after 1947Preprint
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Insights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics
Abrams, L., Bramajo, O., van Raalte, A., Myrskylä, M., & Mehta, N. K. (2026) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2519356123 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
- Authors
- Reynolds, N.
- Affiliations
- University of Essex (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Reynolds, Nicholas
- Venue
- American Economic Review: Insights
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2025-06-01
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 141-159
- ISSN
- 2640-205X (ISSN-L)
- 2640-2068
- OpenAlex
- W4410860159
- Cited by
- 1
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1
- FWCI
- 0.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Economic Review Insights (publishedVersion)
- Open Access at Essex (University of Essex) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Keywords
- health trends, human capital, educational attainment, wage stagnation, maternal health, low birth weight, mortality, birth cohort
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