Cited by 1Labor market dynamics and wage inequalityHistorical Economic and Social StudiesEconomic Growth and Productivity

The Broad Decline in Health and Human Capital of Americans Born after 1947

Reynolds, Nicholas·2025·American Economic Review: Insights

Abstract

I present evidence of a cross-cohort decline in the health and human capital of Americans, beginning with those born after 1947 and continuing until those born in the mid-1960s. Education, men’s wages, women’s maternal health (proxied by their infants’ birth weight), and mortality all exhibit trend breaks near the 1947 cohort, such that each outcome worsens for subsequent cohorts relative to prior trend. The decline is large enough to drive educational declines in the 1960s, increases in low birth weight in the 1980s, and mortality increases since 1999 and to contribute substantially to wage stagnation since the 1970s. (JEL I12, I26, J13, J16, J24, J31)

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Crossref · 10.1257/aeri.20230588

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58 of 58 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • The few studies that have examined birth cohort patterns have identified worsening mortality for cohorts born after 1945.

    “The few studies that have examined birth cohort patterns have identified worsening mortality for cohorts born after 1945.”

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Authors
Reynolds, N.
Affiliations
University of Essex (GB)
Corresponding author
Reynolds, Nicholas
Venue
American Economic Review: Insights
Published
2025-06-01
Volume
7
Issue
2
Pages
141-159
ISSN
  • 2640-205X (ISSN-L)
  • 2640-2068
OpenAlex
W4410860159
Cited by
1
References
58
Citations by year
2026: 1
FWCI
0.92
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • American Economic Review Insights (publishedVersion)
  • Open Access at Essex (University of Essex) (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Historical Economic and Social Studies
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
Keywords
health trends, human capital, educational attainment, wage stagnation, maternal health, low birth weight, mortality, birth cohort

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