The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Searching for Effective Teachers with Imperfect Information
Abstract
Over the past four decades, empirical researchers—many of them economists—have accumulated an impressive amount of evidence on teachers. In this paper, we ask what the existing evidence implies for how school leaders might recruit, evaluate, and retain teachers. We begin by summarizing the evidence on five key points, referring to existing work and to evidence we have accumulated from our research with the nation's two largest school districts: Los Angeles and New York City. First, teachers display considerable heterogeneity in their effects on student achievement gains. Second, estimates of teacher effectiveness based on student achievement data are noisy measures. Third, teachers' effectiveness rises rapidly in the first year or two of their teaching careers but then quickly levels out. Fourth, the primary cost of teacher turnover is not the direct cost of hiring and firing, but rather is the loss to students who will be taught by a novice teacher rather than one with several years of experience. Fifth, it is difficult to identify at the time of hire those teachers who will prove more effective. As a result, better teachers can only be identified after some evidence on their actual job performance has accumulated. We then explore what these facts imply for how principals and school districts should act, using a simple model in which schools must search for teachers using noisy signals of teacher effectiveness. The implications of our analysis are strikingly different from current practice. Rather than screening at the time of hire, the evidence on heterogeneity of teacher performance suggests a better strategy would be identifying large differences between teachers by observing the first few years of teaching performance and retaining only the highest-performing teachers.
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“The marginal gains from obtaining one more year of data are outweighed by the expected cost of having a low VA teacher on the staff even after the first year (Staiger and Rockoff 2010).”
From Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood (2014) · cites this paper as Staiger and Rockoff 2010
Citations
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Can You Recognize an Effective Teacher When You Recruit One?
Rockoff, J. E., Jacob, B. A., Kane, T. J., & Staiger, D. O. (2011) · Education Finance and Policy · doi:10.1162/edfp_a_00022 · Cited by 390
Self-citationInformation and Employee Evaluation: Evidence from a Randomized Intervention in Public Schools
Rockoff, J. E., Staiger, D. O., Kane, T. J., & Taylor, E. S. (2012) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.102.7.3184 · Cited by 138
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Feldstein, L. E. (2017) · doi:10.21220/w42m2x · Cited by 1
“Teacher effectiveness increases as novice teachers gain experience, especially during the first three to five years of teaching (Hanushek, 2010; Staiger & Rockoff, 2010).”
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Hansén, M. (2016) · Palgrave Macmillan US eBooks · doi:10.1057/978-1-137-53901-4_10
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“Obstacles introduced by imprecise performance measurement have also been studied in the setting of education policy (Kane and Staiger 2002; Staiger and Rockoff 2010), with a focus on measurement properties like bias and stability.”
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Gibbs, D. (2018) · Economics of Governance · doi:10.1007/s10101-018-0217-0
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“In the same way that teacher quality is associated with experience (Boyd et al., 2006; Rivkin et al., 2005; Staiger & Rockoff, 2010), researchers have shown that school leaders bene fi t from tenure and prior experience.”
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Badaracco, N. (2025) · Economics of Education Review · doi:10.1016/j.econedurev.2025.102749
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“That means experience is good to have more knowledge, skills, and disposition for classroom teaching of mathematics, however, research findings are not consistent about the relationship between mathematics teacher experience and student achievement (Blomeke et al., 2016; Staiger & Rockoff, 2010).”
Educational Degree Design: The Economic Rationales
Winter, S., Kistner, M., Maffia, D., Matz, R. M., & Thevanesan, E. (2024) · International Journal of Higher Education · doi:10.5430/ijhe.v13n6p62
“Even though educational institutions do not perform optimally in selecting the best teachers (Ballou, 1996; Harris, Ingle, & Rutledge, 2014; Hinrichs, 2021; Staiger & Rockoff, 2010), they still have major selection advantages over students’ selecting capabilities.”
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Fonseca-Pinto, R., & Murcia, J. A. M. (2024) · F1000Research · doi:10.12688/f1000research.150535.1
“…that variably influences (positively and negatively) learner performance, being more significant than class size, socio-economic status or the starting level with which the learner arrives (Darling-Hammond & Youngs, 2002; Hindman & Stronge, 2009; Klassen & Tze, 2014; Staiger & Rockoff, 2010).”
Matching $\leq$ Hybrid $\leq$ Difference in Differences
Park, Y., & Sasaki, Y. (2024) · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2411.07952
“…the past 20 years—such as the transition from district-specific to statewide tests and variations in test timing–we have normalized the test scores by year and grade to have a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one, following established research practices (e.g., Staiger and Rockoff, 2010).”
Turnover Tactics: Unveiling the Frequency and Mechanisms of Counseling Out
Malkus, N., & Cummings, A. (2024) · Journal of Education Human Resources · doi:10.3138/jehr-2023-0054
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Fejes, J. B., Vígh, T., Rausch, A., Mezei, T., & Szenczi, B. (2024) · SAGE Open · doi:10.1177/21582440241241916 · Cited by 2
“Compelling evidence suggests that teacher effectiveness plays a crucial role in student achievement in education systems (e.g., Darling-Hammond & Youngs, 2002; Hanushek, 2011; Hindman & Stronge, 2009; Staiger & Rockoff, 2010).”
Aloyo, E. (2023) · Public Affairs Quarterly · doi:10.5406/21520542.37.2.01
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“Many studies focus on selecting teachers based on the information collected at the time of hire to predict student outcomes (Jacob et al., 2018; Hill et al., 2012; Staiger and Rockoff, 2010).”
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Mizzi, R. C. (2021) · International Journal of Education Policy and Leadership · doi:10.22230/ijepl.2021v17n6a1087
“Hiring teachers is generally understood to be a complex endeavour, due in part to incomplete or superficial information about the applicant (Mason & Schroeder, 2010; Staiger & Rockoff, 2010).”
BackgroundWhat kind of teachers are schools looking for? Evidence from a randomized field experiment
Hinrichs, P. L. (2021) · Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2021.03.023 · Cited by 19
Improving the Outcomes of the “Prediction Problem”: A Framework Approach to Teacher Hiring
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“Conversely, Staiger and Rockoff [52] argue that the greatest hiring cost faced by schools is the risk of exposing a group of students to a new teacher who turns out to be highly ineffective.”
BackgroundFletcher-Wood, H. (2019) · Wrecked · doi:10.7758/9781610448871.4
“…existing teachers with more effective ones, but this approach is unpromising (because it is difficult to identify effective teachers reliably; Staiger and Rockoff, 2010) impractical, given existing recruitment challenges, and would show meaningful effects very slowly (see Wiliam, 2016,…”
BackgroundOrigin of the Achievement Gap: Evidence from a League Table Analysis of 23 Interventions
Yeh, S. S. (2019) · Journal of education finance · doi:10.1353/jef.2019.a747803
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“Current research in empirical methods to accurately and precisely capture teachers’ impacts on SLOs has led to increased adoption of the value-added approach (VA; Chetty, Friedman, & Rockoff, 2014a, 2014b; Staiger & Rockoff, 2010).”
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O’Roark, B. (2019) · The American Economist · doi:10.1177/0569434519836844
A Structural Approach to Assessing Retention Policies in Public Schools
Vera, C. (2018) · B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy · doi:10.1515/bejeap-2018-0060
Microdata and Policy Evaluation at CPB
Douven, R., van Geest, L., Gerritsen, S., Jongen, E., & Lejour, A. (2018) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-78461-8_13 · Cited by 1
A Comparison of Classification Issues across Teacher Effectiveness Measures
Brasfield, J. (2016) · Journal of Applied Educational and Policy Research · doi:10.55370/jaepr.v2i2.521 · Cited by 2
“The incorporation of a third-party standards-based observation component to the state teacher evaluation system would also follow recommendations discussed by Darling-Hammond et al. (2012), Jacob & Lefgrin (2008), Staiger & Rockoff (2010), and Teddlie (2006).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialMeasuring the Contribution of Primary-School Teachers to Education Outcomes in The Netherlands
Houkes-Hommes, A., ter Weel, B., & van der Wiel, K. (2016) · De Economist · doi:10.1007/s10645-016-9285-0
“Advances in discovering the most important inputs of the human-capital production function have led to the conclusion that teacher quality is crucial for building a country’s human-capital stock (Hanushek 1971; Hanushek and Rivkin 2006; Staiger and Rockoff 2010).”
BackgroundRethinking Education in the United States
Conrad, D. (2013) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2285447
Gains from Alternative Assignment? Evidence from a Two-Sided Teacher MarketPreprint
Laverde, M., Mykerezi, E., Sojourner, A. J., & Sood, A. (2025) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5142308
Julius, N. (2020) · doi:10.31274/etd-20200624-59
“The main specification excludes this variable because previous research (e.g. Staiger and Rockoff (2010)) suggests that teacher certifications are not good predictors of teacher quality, and thus balancing of samples on teacher certification would be harmful unless such balance could be achieved…”
BackgroundSalgado, V. (2019) · doi:10.7916/d8-sk36-6p06
“…statistically significant), and the regression retained indicated that the quadratic form was the most adequate, confirming that previous teaching experience had the quadratic form identified in the literature (see Ost, 2009; Rivkin, Hanushek, & Kain, 2005; Rockoff, 2004; Staiger & Rockoff, 2010).”
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Investing in School Learning: The New York City Department of Education’s Learning Partners Program
Wallenstein, J. (2018) · doi:10.7916/d8pp0hmd
“Finally, the very premise of deselecting is problematic, as it accepts that more students will experience early-career teachers before they have been deemed effective or ineffective (Staiger & Rockoff, 2010).”
BackgroundAn examination of school leaders' preferences for teacher applicant characteristics.
Davis, B. (2017) · doi:10.18297/etd/2873
“…value added, the effects of teacher experience, the cost of teacher turnover, and the inability to confidently discern 57 teacher quality during the initial hiring process, Staiger and Rockoff (2010) provided some sweeping recommendations to change the system based on research findings to date.”
BackgroundPeut-on mieux gérer les enseignants ?
Chapelain, A. L. (2014) · Revue française d économie · doi:10.3917/rfe.133.0003 · Cited by 2
Metadata
- Authors
- Staiger, D. O., & Rockoff, J. E.
- Affiliations
- Dartmouth College (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- ORCID
- Staiger, Douglas O
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2010-08-01
- Volume
- 24
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 97-118
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2107815207
- Cited by
- 345
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 35 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 36 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 21
- FWCI
- 84.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Education › School Leadership and Teacher Performance
- Social Sciences › Education › Teacher Professional Development and Motivation
- Keywords
- teacher effectiveness, teacher employment, teacher evaluation, teacher retention, teacher turnover, teacher heterogeneity, academic performance, imperfect information, signaling, school leadership, novice teachers, teacher screening
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