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The New Demographic Transition: Most Gains in Life Expectancy Now Realized Late in Life
Abstract
The share of increases in life expectancy realized after age 65 was only about 20 percent at the beginning of the 20th century for the United States and 16 other countries at comparable stages of development; but that share was close to 80 percent by the dawn of the 21st century, and is almost certainly approaching 100 percent asymptotically. This new demographic transition portends a diminished survival effect on working life. For high-income countries at the forefront of the longevity transition, expected lifetime labor force participation as a percent of life expectancy is declining. Innovative policies are needed if societies wish to preserve a positive relationship running from increasing longevity to greater prosperity.
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“Over the course of the twentieth century, human life expectancy at birth rose in high-income nations by approximately 30 years, largely driven by advances in public health and medicine.”
From Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century (2024) · cites this paper as [3]
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“This historic event began with reductions in early age mortality and continued later in the twentieth century with mortality improvements at middle and older ages3.”
From Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century (2024) · cites this paper as [3]
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation
Jamison, D. T., Summers, L. H., Alleyne, G., Arrow, K. J., Berkley, S., Binagwaho, A., Bustreo, F., Evans, D., Feachem, R. G. A., Frenk, J., et al. (2013) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(13)62105-4 · Cited by 1,220
Ageing, age-related diseases and oxidative stress: What to do next?
Luo, J., Mills, K., le Cessie, S., Noordam, R., & van Heemst, D. (2020) · Ageing Research Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.arr.2019.100982 · Cited by 581
“result of improved medical care, vaccination and hygiene (Eggleston and Fuchs, 2012; Rappuoli et al., 2014).”
Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century
Olshansky, S. J., Willcox, B. J., Demetrius, L., & Beltrán-Sánchez, H. (2024) · Nature Aging · doi:10.1038/s43587-024-00702-3 · Cited by 115
Mobile Electronic Medical Records Promote Workflow: Physicians’ Perspective From a Survey
Duhm, J., Fleischmann, R., Schmidt, S., Hupperts, H., & Brandt, S. A. (2016) · JMIR mHealth and uHealth · doi:10.2196/mhealth.5464 · Cited by 36
Metadata
- Authors
- Eggleston, K. N., & Fuchs, V. R.
- Affiliations
- Director of the Stanford Asia Health Policy Program and Center Fellow at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
- Henry J. Kaiser, Jr., Professor Emeritus in the Departments of Economics and of Health Research and Policy, and Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute of Economic Policy and Research, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2012-08-01
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 137-156
- ISSN
- 0895-3309
- PMC
- PMC4112481
- Cited by
- 95
- References
- 4
- Language
- en
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