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Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation
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In this essay, I begin by identifying the reasons that automation has not wiped out a majority of jobs over the decades and centuries. Automation does indeed substitute for labor—as it is typically intended to do. However, automation also complements labor, raises output in ways that leads to higher demand for labor, and interacts with adjustments in labor supply. Journalists and even expert commentators tend to overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities between automation and labor that increase productivity, raise earnings, and augment demand for labor. Changes in technology do alter the types of jobs available and what those jobs pay. In the last few decades, one noticeable change has been a “polarization” of the labor market, in which wage gains went disproportionately to those at the top and at the bottom of the income and skill distribution, not to those in the middle; however, I also argue, this polarization and is unlikely to continue very far into future. The final section of this paper reflects on how recent and future advances in artificial intelligence and robotics should shape our thinking about the likely trajectory of occupational change and employment growth. I argue that the interplay between machine and human comparative advantage allows computers to substitute for workers in performing routine, codifiable tasks while amplifying the comparative advantage of workers in supplying problem-solving skills, adaptability, and creativity.
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“With each wave, however, human effort has not been removed, but rather redirected.”
From The views of health guideline developers on the use of automation in health evidence synthesis (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
In the citing paper
“From the late nineteenth century onwards, there have been repeated waves of automation of production and consequent population-level job panic [15].”
From The views of health guideline developers on the use of automation in health evidence synthesis (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
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“In some cases, job opportunities have expanded rather than contracted as a by-product of widespread automation.”
From The views of health guideline developers on the use of automation in health evidence synthesis (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
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“For instance, even though present-day machines can conceive messages perceived as more empathic than messages conceived by humans 170,171 , such messages may be perceived differently once recipients become aware of their artificial origin.”
From Machine culture (2023) · cites this paper as [170]
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Demographics and AutomationPreprint
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“This evolution is dual-faceted, fostering the need for new skills while simultaneously displacing a significant portion of the workforce as roles evolve or become obsolete (Autor, 2015).”
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“Automation represents a major shaping force of today's labor markets, contributing to rising living standards (Atack et al., 2019; Autor, 2015; Autor & Salomons, 2018), but also being considered a relevant source of anxiety for citizens: 75% of Europeans see technological progress as a phenomenon…”
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“Others stress that jobs comprise multiple elements, only some of which may be automatable (Autor, 2015), producing more conservative estimates of job destruction (Arntz et al., 2016).”
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Investing in innovation and skills
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Who Says Artificial Intelligence Is Stealing Our Jobs?
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Towards the Tyrell corporation? Digitisation, firm-size and productivity divergence in Spain
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“The underlying assumption is that technological development will increase the demand for highly skilled technical workers, while people with low educational qualifications will face a high risk of unemployment (Autor, 2015; Liu and Grusky, 2013).”
BackgroundHow to compete with robots by assessing job automation risks and resilient alternatives
Paolillo, A., Colella, F., Nosengo, N., Schiano, F., Stewart, W., Zambrano, D., Chappuis, I., Lalive, R., & Floreano, D. (2022) · Science Robotics · doi:10.1126/scirobotics.abg5561 · Cited by 38
“…automation (such as the mechanization of the textile and agricultural sectors, the introduction of industrial robots in manufacturing, and the computerization of the service sector) have initially increased and then reduced the share of the working population employed in specific sectors ( 5 , 6 ).”
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“Like previous industrial revolutions, the fourth raises concerns that automation will wipe out jobs (Autor, 2015).”
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“Other authors do not posit a direct relationship between job characteristics and the perceived risk of job loss, rather, they study the characteristics that a job must have in order not to be substituted by automation or AI: Autor (2015), Fagan (2017), Furman (2017) and Coupe (2019) focus on creativity and complex sol…”
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Public Anxieties About AI: Implications for Corporate Strategy and Societal Impact
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Digital economy, education, human capital and urban–rural income disparity
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The effect of innovation on skilled and unskilled workers during bad times
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“These include STEM skills – containing also ICT skills (Deming and Noray 2018) - but also wider set of skills including entrepreneurship, critical thinking, creativity, flexibility and interpersonal skills such as collaboration and communication (Autor 2015) to carry out non-routine tasks.”
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“Specifically, digital platforms for online education and remote training lower the costs and barriers to skills and educational improvement, offering more individuals opportunities to develop their capabilities [58].”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Autor, D. H.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Autor, David H.
- ORCID
- Autor, David H.
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2015-08-01
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 3-30
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1821977771
- Cited by
- 3,917
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 697 · 2025: 579 · 2024: 457 · 2023: 364 · 2022: 309 · 2021: 345 · 2020: 349 · 2019: 312 · 2018: 263 · 2017: 153 · 2016: 72 · 2015: 9
- FWCI
- 398.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Digital Economy and Work Transformation
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Keywords
- workplace automation, labor substitution, labor complementarity, labor demand, labor supply, labor market polarization, wage inequality, artificial intelligence, robotics, career change, job creation, routine tasks, problem-solving skills, comparative advantage
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