The DOI matches its Crossref record; 45 of the 46 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation
Open accessAbstract
In this essay, I begin by identifying the reasons that automation has not wiped out a majority of jobs over the decades and centuries. Automation does indeed substitute for labor—as it is typically intended to do. However, automation also complements labor, raises output in ways that leads to higher demand for labor, and interacts with adjustments in labor supply. Journalists and even expert commentators tend to overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities between automation and labor that increase productivity, raise earnings, and augment demand for labor. Changes in technology do alter the types of jobs available and what those jobs pay. In the last few decades, one noticeable change has been a “polarization” of the labor market, in which wage gains went disproportionately to those at the top and at the bottom of the income and skill distribution, not to those in the middle; however, I also argue, this polarization and is unlikely to continue very far into future. The final section of this paper reflects on how recent and future advances in artificial intelligence and robotics should shape our thinking about the likely trajectory of occupational change and employment growth. I argue that the interplay between machine and human comparative advantage allows computers to substitute for workers in performing routine, codifiable tasks while amplifying the comparative advantage of workers in supplying problem-solving skills, adaptability, and creativity.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“With each wave, however, human effort has not been removed, but rather redirected.”
From The views of health guideline developers on the use of automation in health evidence synthesis (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
In the citing paper
“From the late nineteenth century onwards, there have been repeated waves of automation of production and consequent population-level job panic [15].”
From The views of health guideline developers on the use of automation in health evidence synthesis (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
In the citing paper
“In some cases, job opportunities have expanded rather than contracted as a by-product of widespread automation.”
From The views of health guideline developers on the use of automation in health evidence synthesis (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
In the citing paper
“For instance, even though present-day machines can conceive messages perceived as more empathic than messages conceived by humans 170,171 , such messages may be perceived differently once recipients become aware of their artificial origin.”
From Machine culture (2023) · cites this paper as [170]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Polanyi, M. (1997) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-7506-9718-7.50010-x · Cited by 12,410
Duflo, E. (2019) · AEA Papers and Proceedings · doi:10.1257/pandp.109.612 · Cited by 11,235
The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?
Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019 · Cited by 8,727
The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration
Autor, D. H., Levy, F., & Murnane, R. J. (2003) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355303322552801 · Cited by 6,205
Self-citationThe China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States
Autor, D. H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.6.2121 · Cited by 4,459
Self-citationThe second machine age: work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies
(2015) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.184834 · Cited by 4,409
The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market
Autor, D. H., & Dorn, D. (2013) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.103.5.1553 · Cited by 3,824
Self-citationThe Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration
Autor, D., Levy, F. S., & Murnane, R. J. (2001) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w8337 · Cited by 2,633
Self-citationTrends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists
Autor, D., Katz, L. F., & Kearney, M. S. (2008) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest.90.2.300 · Cited by 2,381
Self-citationTop Incomes in the Long Run of History
Atkinson, A. B., Piketty, T., & Saez, E. (2011) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.49.1.3 · Cited by 2,362
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Alpert Andrew, 2003, Monthly Labor Review, 13
- Autor David H, 2015, Re-Evaluating Labor Market Dynamics, 129
- US Bureau of the Census., 1949, Series D, 134
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 601–700 of 1,004
Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2018) · Asian Economic Papers · doi:10.1162/asep_a_00783 · Cited by 31
“Over the last two decades, path-breaking developments in AI and robotics and the associated accelerated automation of tasks typically performed by human workers have created growing fears that in the future, (human) labor will be made redundant (Autor 2015).”
Bakumenko, L. P., & Minina, E. A. (2020) · Statistics and Economics · doi:10.21686/2500-3925-2020-2-40-54 · Cited by 30
“Интернет-бизнесы занимают половину списка крупнейших мировых компаний, и это соотношение постоянно растет [2].”
InfluentialAsatiani, A., Penttinen, E., Ruissalo, J., & Salovaara, A. (2020) · Progress in IS · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-45819-5_17 · Cited by 30
“Some authors argue that this development has the potential to unleash an unprecedented rate of human labor automation, turning Keynes’ prediction of mass technological unemployment (Keynes 1933) into reality (Autor 2015; Frey and Osborne 2017).”
BackgroundAre low-skilled young people increasingly useless, and are men the losers among them?
Vogt, K. C., Lorentzen, T., & Hansen, H. (2020) · Journal of Education and Work · doi:10.1080/13639080.2020.1820965 · Cited by 30
Retracted Article: Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth: A Theoretical Framework
Wang, L., Sarker, P. K., Alam, M. K., & Sumon, S. (2021) · Scientific Annals of Economics and Business · doi:10.47743/saeb-2021-0027 · Cited by 30
“However, the most in-depth debate concerns the impact on employment for the diffusion of robotization and automation (Acemoglu & Restrepo, 2020; Agrawal, Gans, & Goldfarb, 2018; Agrawal et al., 2019a; Arntz, Gregory, & Zierahn, 2017; Autor, 2015; Autor & Salomons, 2018; Chiacchio, Petropoulos, & Pichler, 2018; Dauth,…”
RetractedFanti, L., Guarascio, D., & Moggi, M. (2022) · Journal of Industrial and Business Economics · doi:10.1007/s40812-022-00222-4 · Cited by 30
“…of literature is currently focusing on how AI may impact jobs and income distribution by pointing to the risk of a new wave of technological unemployment (Autor, 2015; Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2016; Frey and Osborne, 2017; IFR, 2017; Montobbio et al., 2020; Webb, 2020; Lane and Saint-Martin, 2021).”
BackgroundAdvanced Technologies and Worker Voice
Belloc, F., Burdín, G., & Landini, F. (2022) · Economica · doi:10.1111/ecca.12446 · Cited by 30
Greenhouse farming and employment: Evidence from Ecuador
Stemmler, H., & Meemken, E. (2023) · Food Policy · doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102443 · Cited by 32
Disquieting uncertainty. Three glimpses into the future
Schmidt, V. H. (2017) · European Journal of Futures Research · doi:10.1007/s40309-017-0113-9 · Cited by 31
The impact of artificial intelligence on labor market: A study based on bibliometric analysis
Zhou, H., Wang, L., Cao, Y., & Li, J. (2025) · Journal of Asian Economics · doi:10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101926 · Cited by 40
Stojanová, H., Lietavcová, B., & Raguž, I. V. (2019) · Social Sciences · doi:10.3390/socsci8010029 · Cited by 29
“The opinion difference may be represented by the research of Frey and Osborne (2017) and Autor (2015), in which the opinions oscillate from concerns of massive job losses if current jobs became redundant due to interconnected robots, to the assumption of huge employment and innovation delivered by…”
BackgroundDigitization-Based Automation and Occupational Dynamics
Gardberg, M., Heyman, F., Norbäck, P., & Persson, L. (2019) · Economics Letters · doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109032 · Cited by 30
“1 See e.g., Autor et al. (2003), Acemoglu and Autor (2011), Michaels et al. (2014), Autor (2015) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2019).”
BackgroundGardner, E. C., & Bryson, J. R. (2020) · Industry and Innovation · doi:10.1080/13662716.2020.1738915 · Cited by 29
“productivity this would achieve is attractive, but it places professional workers in a precarious position: it is usually low-skilled, manual jobs that are considered to be at risk from automation, not middle-class, professional occupations (Autor 2015; Bryson 2018; Acemoglu and Restrepo 2019).”
BackgroundAnticipating and Preparing for Emerging Skills and Jobs
Panth, B., & Maclean, R. (2020) · Education in the Asia-Pacific region · doi:10.1007/978-981-15-7018-6 · Cited by 29
How is new technology changing job design?
Gibbs, M., & Bazylik, S. (2022) · IZA World of Labor · doi:10.15185/izawol.344.v2 · Cited by 29
Towards Trusting Autonomous Systems
Winikoff, M. (2018) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-91899-0_1 · Cited by 29
Back to the future: A continuity of dialogue on work and technology at the ILO
Cherry, M. A. (2019) · International Labour Review · doi:10.1111/ilr.12156 · Cited by 30
From Ghana to America: The Skill Content of Jobs and Economic Development
Bello, S. L., Puerta, M. L. S., & Winkler, H. (2019) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-8758 · Cited by 29
Exploring the next generation of international entrepreneurship
Chakravarty, S., Cumming, D. J., Murtinu, S., Scalera, V. G., & Schwens, C. (2021) · Journal of World Business · doi:10.1016/j.jwb.2021.101229 · Cited by 31
New technologies and jobs in Europe
Stefania Albanesi, Y., da Silva, A. D., Jimeno, J. F., Lamo, A., & Wabitsch, A. (2023) · Documentos de trabajo/Documento de trabajo - Banco de España, Servicio de Estudios · doi:10.53479/33414 · Cited by 37
Young women and men: Imagined futures of work and family formation in Australia
Hill, E., Baird, M., Vromen, A., Cooper, R., Meers, Z., & Probyn, E. (2019) · Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1177/1440783319877001 · Cited by 28
“family formation, future of work, women and work, working parents, young workers Future of work debates typically focus on the impact of technology on work, the potential for job loss, and changes in industry and organisational structures (Arntz et al., 2016; Autor, 2015; Frey and Osborne, 2013).”
BackgroundRobotization and employment dynamics in German manufacturing value chains
Graf, H., & Mohamed, H. (2023) · Structural Change and Economic Dynamics · doi:10.1016/j.strueco.2023.10.014 · Cited by 31
The artificial intelligence shock and socio-political polarization
Jacobs, J. (2023) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2023.123006 · Cited by 30
Economic Development in the Digital Economy: A Bibliometric Review
Al-Zoubi, W. K. (2024) · Economies · doi:10.3390/economies12030053 · Cited by 28
“They contend that the rapid pace of technological advancement can drive economic growth by nurturing entrepreneurship, innovation, and job creation (Autor 2015).”
BackgroundInvestigating the politics and content of US State artificial intelligence legislation
Parinandi, S., Crosson, J., Peterson, K., & Nadarevic, S. (2024) · Business and Politics · doi:10.1017/bap.2023.40 · Cited by 29
“14 (Arntz, Gregory, and Zierahn 2017; Autor 2015).”
Expert-AI pairings: Expert interventions in AI-powered decisions
Cruz, I. (2024) · Information and Organization · doi:10.1016/j.infoandorg.2024.100527 · Cited by 32
Tarter, A. (2017) · Advanced sciences and technologies for security applications · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-53396-4_15 · Cited by 28
Prediction, Judgment, and Complexity
Agrawal, A. K., Gans, J., & Avi Goldfarb, B. (2019) · University of Chicago Press eBooks · doi:10.7208/chicago/9780226613475.003.0003 · Cited by 28
The Routine Biased Technical Change hypothesis: a critical review
Sebastian, R., & Federico, B. (2018) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.2760/986914 · Cited by 28
“For instance, Autor and Handel (2013) introduce the “absence of face-to-face interactions with customer” as a parameter to identifying routine. This is arguable; whether there is interaction or not with customers does not necessarily affect the routine content of the occupation. However, the absence of face-to-face in…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialIn search of the skilled city: Skills and the occupational evolution of British cities
Sunley, P., Martin, R., Gardiner, B., & Pike, A. (2019) · Urban Studies · doi:10.1177/0042098019834249 · Cited by 28
“This ‘hollowing-out’ is explained primarily in terms of the impacts of computer and information technology raising demand for educated labour and eliminating routine and semi-skilled work (Autor et al., 2003; Autor, 2015).”
BackgroundUniversal Basic Income and Inclusive Capitalism: Consequences for Sustainability
Hall, R. P., Ashford, R., Ashford, N. A., & Arango-Quiroga, J. (2019) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su11164481 · Cited by 34
“These drivers of change are intensifying the extent to which increasingly productive real capital is driving productivity and simultaneously hollowing out the middle class (Figure 5) [14].”
BackgroundToward a Hybrid Passive BCI for the Modulation of Sustained Attention Using EEG and fNIRS
Karran, A. J., Demazure, T., Léger, P., Labonté-LeMoyne, É., Sénécal, S., Frédette, M., & Babin, G. (2019) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2019.00393 · Cited by 28
“These factors in combination with fiscal policy are now driving the acceleration and adoption of automation within organizations and their workplaces, replacing human labor and fundamentally changing the way in which we interact with technology (Autor, 2015).”
BackgroundKlinova, K., & Korinek, A. (2021) · Proceedings of the 2021 AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society · doi:10.1145/3461702.3462619 · Cited by 28
Propris, L. D., & Bellandi, M. (2021) · Regional Studies · doi:10.1080/00343404.2021.1974374 · Cited by 28
“Automation will redesign the set of skills required in the workplace (Autor, 2015).”
BackgroundThe impact of automation on employment and its social implications: evidence from Chile
Katz, R. L., Callorda, F. M., & Jung, J. (2021) · Economics of Innovation and New Technology · doi:10.1080/10438599.2021.1991798 · Cited by 36
“This approach is also limited as the subjective probabilities assigned to each occupation may be biasing the analysis, for instance, by overestimating the real effect of technology (Autor 2015).”
InfluentialPublic preferences for governing AI technology: Comparative evidence
Ehret, S. (2022) · Journal of European Public Policy · doi:10.1080/13501763.2022.2094988 · Cited by 28
“This is the worst-case scenario (Frey & Osborne, 2017, pp. 39 – 42). ii) New jobs are created, but unemployment risks are high (Summers, 2013). iii) Low unemployment risk, but no new jobs created (Gordon, 2018). iv) Low unemployment risk and new jobs (Autor, 2015).”
BackgroundDo Robots Increase Wealth Dispersion?
Gomes, F., Jansson, T., & Karabulut, Y. (2023) · Review of Financial Studies · doi:10.1093/rfs/hhad050 · Cited by 28
The future of work: AI, automation, and the changing dynamics of developed economies
Faishal, M., Mathew, S., Neikha, K., Pusa, K., & Zhimomi, T. (2023) · World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews · doi:10.30574/wjarr.2023.18.3.1086 · Cited by 44
Reengineering professional services through automation, remote outsourcing, and task delegation
Sampson, S. E., & dos Santos, R. P. (2023) · Journal of Operations Management · doi:10.1002/joom.1268 · Cited by 32
Algorithmic management in scientific research
Koehler, M., & Sauermann, H. (2024) · Research Policy · doi:10.1016/j.respol.2024.104985 · Cited by 35
Polarization and the growth of low‐skill service jobs in Spanish local labor markets
Consoli, D., & Sánchez‐Barrioluengo, M. (2018) · Journal of Regional Science · doi:10.1111/jors.12409 · Cited by 28
The Employment Impact of Autonomous VehiclesPreprint
Beede, D. N., Powers, R. H., & Ingram, C. (2017) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3022818 · Cited by 29
Automation and Unemployment: Help Is on the WayPreprint
Nakamura, H., & Zeira, J. (2018) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3202622 · Cited by 28
Hick, R., & Marx, I. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4114722 · Cited by 28
No automation please, we’re British: technology and the prospects for work
Spencer, D., & Slater, G. (2020) · Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society · doi:10.1093/cjres/rsaa003 · Cited by 26
“As noted above, technological progress has itself been linked to higher inequality in capitalist economies (Autor, 2015).”
BackgroundInfluentialBeing Human in the Digitally Enabled Workplace: Insights From the Robo-Advice Literature
Altrock, S., Mention, A., & AAS, T. H. (2023) · IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management · doi:10.1109/tem.2023.3291820 · Cited by 32
Education, opportunity and the future of work in the fourth industrial revolution
Brown, P. (2024) · British Journal of Sociology of Education · doi:10.1080/01425692.2023.2299970 · Cited by 35
“Much of the policy literature is premised on a labour scarcity theory (Brown, Lauder and Cheung 2020) where new technologies are assumed to accelerate the demand for knowledge workers with tech savvy skills (Goldin and Lawrence 2008; Autor 2015).”
InfluentialWang, Y., Qi, Y., & Li, Y. (2024) · Heliyon · doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33717 · Cited by 27
Artificial intelligence, wage dynamics, and inequality: Empirical evidence from Chinese listed firms
Wu, Y., Lin, Z., Zhang, Q., & Wang, W. (2024) · International Review of Economics & Finance · doi:10.1016/j.iref.2024.103739 · Cited by 30
Digital divide and income inequality: causal evidence from Italian provinces
Bergantino, A. S., Fusco, G., Intini, M., & Monturano, G. (2025) · The Annals of Regional Science · doi:10.1007/s00168-025-01440-z · Cited by 30
“Third, digital technologies are inherently skill-and capital-biased, favoring highly qualified labor and capital–intensive firms (Acemoglu and Autor 2011; Autor 2015).”
Peng, F., Anwar, S., & Kang, L. (2017) · Economic Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.004 · Cited by 27
“This phenomenon, which is also referred to as job polarization, is evident in the US (e.g., see Autor and Dorn, 2013; and Autor, 2015), the UK (e.g., see Goos and Manning, 2007), Germany (e.g., Spitz-Oener 2006; Dustmann et al., 2009) and Sweden (e.g., Adermon and Gustavsson, 2015).”
BackgroundJob polarization and labour supply changes in the UK
Montresor, G. (2018) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2018.05.009 · Cited by 27
“Major pitfalls are the unexplained downturn in the growth of high-skilled occupations and the disappearance of wage polarization (Beaudry, Green and Sand, 2014 forthcoming; Autor, 2015).”
BackgroundConceptualizing a Sustainable Food System in an Automated World: Toward a “Eudaimonian” Future
Shepon, A., Henriksson, P. J. G., & Wu, T. (2018) · Frontiers in Nutrition · doi:10.3389/fnut.2018.00104 · Cited by 28
“based on a qualitative analysis in Autor (30).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSTEFANO, V. D. (2020) · Studies in systems, decision and control · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-45340-4_7 · Cited by 28
Ghimire, R., Skinner, J., & Carnathan, M. (2020) · Technology in Society · doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2020.101368 · Cited by 25
General digital competences of beginning trainees in commercial vocational education and training
Findeisen, S., & Wild, S. (2022) · Empirical research in vocational education and training · doi:10.1186/s40461-022-00130-w · Cited by 58
“Additionally, in other fields of vocational education (e.g. health care; see Evangelinos and Holley 2014, 2015), the DigComp framework was used as well.”
MethodPetragallo, R., Bardach, N. S., Ramirez, E., & Lamb, J. M. (2022) · Journal of Applied Clinical Medical Physics · doi:10.1002/acm2.13568 · Cited by 27
The Nordic Economic, Social and Political Model
Koivunen, A., Ojala, J., & Holmén, J. (2021) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780429026690 · Cited by 36
Automation, firm employment and skill upgrading: firm-level evidence from China
Qin, X., Xu, W., Chen, H., Zhong, J., Sun, Y., & Li, X. (2022) · Industry and Innovation · doi:10.1080/13662716.2022.2122411 · Cited by 28
“Beede and Young (1998) revealed similar results. Dixon et al. (2020) also found a positive impact of robot adoption on business employment size, based on Canadian customs and registered employment data analyses. Similar positive relationships were detected by Aghion et al. (2020) at the plan, enterprise and industry s…”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluentialA Literature Study of Indonesian Tourism Human Resources Development in the Era of Society 5.0
Darsana, I. M., & Sudjana, I. M. (2022) · AL-ISHLAH Jurnal Pendidikan · doi:10.35445/alishlah.v14i3.2014 · Cited by 27
The Effect of the Digital Economy on the Employment Structure in China
Zhao, Y., & Said, R. B. (2023) · Economies · doi:10.3390/economies11090227 · Cited by 29
Public Policy in an AI Economy
Goolsbee, A. (2018) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w24653 · Cited by 27
Peña, J., Cusolito, A. P., & Lederman, D. (2020) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/1813-9450-9333 · Cited by 33
Bratta, B., Romano, L., Acciari, P., & Mazzolari, F. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3648046 · Cited by 27
“…benefiting the society as a whole, but in the short- and medium-run social tensions may explode together with the rising job polarization between winners and losers of the technological transformation, undermining social cohesion and confidence towards democratic institutions (Autor, 2015).”
The impact of regional ICT development on job quality of the employee in China
Shi, Z. (2023) · Telecommunications Policy · doi:10.1016/j.telpol.2023.102567 · Cited by 27
Gerlich, M. (2024) · Societies · doi:10.3390/soc14090180 · Cited by 32
Bullshit universities: the future of automated education
Sparrow, R., & Flenady, G. (2025) · AI & Society · doi:10.1007/s00146-025-02340-8 · Cited by 36
“Of course, sometimes computers do eliminate certain forms of work, even if their tendency to reduce the overall amount of labor involved in the production—broadly conceived— of goods is often exaggerated (Autor 2015).”
Compagnucci, F., Gentili, A., Valentini, E., & Gallegati, M. (2019) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2019.1659499 · Cited by 26
Diversity and future of work: inequality abound or opportunities for all?
Özkazanç‐Pan, B. (2019) · Management Decision · doi:10.1108/md-02-2019-0244 · Cited by 36
“Economists theorize two sets of potential labor outcomes related to these technologies: substitution, whereby entire jobs can be eliminated, or complementarity, whereby opportunities are created for people to engage in new kinds of tasks and jobs (Autor, 2015).”
BackgroundLeveraging ICT Technologies in Closing the Gender Gap
Sicat, M., Xu, A., Mehetaj, E., Ferrantino, M. J., & Chemutai, V. (2020) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/33165 · Cited by 30
Digital Sclerosis? Wind of Change for Government and the Employees
Andersen, K. N., Lee, J., & Henriksen, H. Z. (2020) · Digital Government Research and Practice · doi:10.1145/3360000 · Cited by 26
“As shown in the Luddite movement after the Industrial Revolution and the Blue-Ribbon National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress launched by President Johnson in 1964, anxiety over the replacement of human jobs by machines remains an important agenda in society [50].”
BackgroundMihut, G. (2021) · Studies in Higher Education · doi:10.1080/03075079.2020.1870949 · Cited by 29
Formation of an Export-Oriented Agricultural Economy and Regional Open Innovations
Shabanov, V. L., Vasilchenko, M., Derunova, E. A., & Potapov, A. P. (2021) · Journal of Open Innovation Technology Market and Complexity · doi:10.3390/joitmc7010032 · Cited by 26
Upgrading China through Automation: Manufacturers, Workers and the Techno-Developmental State
Lei, Y.-W. (2021) · Work Employment and Society · doi:10.1177/0950017021999198 · Cited by 26
“The material constraint of technology in substituting for non-routine tasks and the movement of people from routine, middle-skilled jobs to non-routine, lowskilled jobs have led to occupational polarisation (Autor, 2015).”
InfluentialMastering new technologies: does it relate to teleworkers’ (in)voluntariness and well-being?
Dias, P. C., Lopes, S., & Peixoto, R. (2022) · Journal of Knowledge Management · doi:10.1108/jkm-01-2021-0003 · Cited by 32
Are Robots stealing jobs? Empirical evidence from 10 developing countries
Plumwongrot, P., & Pholphirul, P. (2022) · Economics of Innovation and New Technology · doi:10.1080/10438599.2022.2051020 · Cited by 27
“Even though many studies find that automation tends to replace some jobs, Autor (2015) identifies reasons that automation may not wipe out a majority of jobs over the coming decades and centuries.”
BackgroundWang, Y.-M., Wei, C., & Wang, M.-W. (2022) · Library Hi Tech · doi:10.1108/lht-12-2021-0506 · Cited by 27
Hosseini, Z., Nyholm, S. R., Blanc, P. M. L., Preenen, P., & Demerouti, E. (2023) · AI and Ethics · doi:10.1007/s43681-023-00265-w · Cited by 42
“Autor [5] argues that between 1980 and 2015 particularly routine work (e.”
Who is Replaced by Robots? Robotization and the Risk of Unemployment for Different Types of Workers
Damelang, A., & Otto, M. (2023) · Work and Occupations · doi:10.1177/07308884231162953 · Cited by 29
“Robots often complement or augment jobs rather than replace them (Autor, 2015; Bessen, 2019).”
Background“Regardless of Age”: Australian University Managers’ Attitudes and Practices Towards Older Academics
Earl, C., Taylor, P., & Cannizzo, F. (2017) · Work Aging and Retirement · doi:10.1093/workar/wax024 · Cited by 26
García‐Murillo, M., MacInnes, I., & Bauer, J. M. (2018) · Telematics and Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.tele.2018.05.013 · Cited by 28
Government Workers’ Stories about Professional Development in a Digitalized Working Life
Wallin, A., Pylväs, L., & Nokelainen, P. (2020) · Vocations and Learning · doi:10.1007/s12186-020-09248-y · Cited by 31
“However, despite its potential, automation has replaced human work at a slower pace than expected (Autor 2015).”
BackgroundThe American Dual Economy: Race, Globalization, and the Politics of ExclusionPreprint
Temin, P. (2015) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2692634 · Cited by 26
Governing the digital transition in Nordic Regions: The human element
Randall, L. M., & Berlina, A. (2019) · doi:10.6027/r2019:4.1403-2503 · Cited by 26
Ross, A., McGregor, P., & Swales, J. K. (2024) · Technology in Society · doi:10.1016/j.techsoc.2024.102539 · Cited by 25
Jin, W. (2024) · Energy Strategy Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.esr.2024.101484 · Cited by 25
Technological employment: Evidence from worldwide robot adoption
Sharfaei, S., & Bittner, J. (2024) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123742 · Cited by 30
Chuang, S., Shahhosseini, M., Javaid, M., & Wang, G. G. (2024) · Journal of Work-Applied Management · doi:10.1108/jwam-08-2024-0111 · Cited by 32
“This time may be a little different” – exploring the Finnish view on the future of work
Pulkka, V.-V. (2018) · International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy · doi:10.1108/ijssp-05-2018-0070 · Cited by 25
Redeployment or robocalypse? Workers and automation in Ohio manufacturing SMEs
Waldman‐Brown, A. (2019) · Cambridge Journal of Regions Economy and Society · doi:10.1093/cjres/rsz027 · Cited by 26
“Automation has likely aided in the USA’s transition from manufacturing to service sector employment over the past few decades, leading to fewer midskilled jobs overall and a hollowing out of the middle class (Autor 2015).”
BackgroundLukowski, F., Baum, M., & Mohr, S. (2020) · Studies in Continuing Education · doi:10.1080/0158037x.2020.1759525 · Cited by 26
“While new jobs emerge, some jobs undergo major changes or even perish (Frey and Osborne 2017; Autor 2015).”
BackgroundEhlert, M. (2020) · KZfSS Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie · doi:10.1007/s11577-020-00676-1 · Cited by 28
Automation and the future of work: Assessing the role of labor flexibility
Fornino, M., & Manera, A. (2021) · Review of Economic Dynamics · doi:10.1016/j.red.2021.07.002 · Cited by 27
“1 Introduction Over the last few years, the progress in robotics, software engineering, and AI, coupled with the secular decline in the labor share of output, has sparked a discussion on whether machines will progressively replace humans in performing tasks (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018c; Autor, 2015; Autor and Salomon…”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialA dark side of e-HRM: mediating role of HR service delivery and HR socialization on HR effectiveness
Talukdar, A., & Ganguly, A. (2021) · International Journal of Manpower · doi:10.1108/ijm-01-2021-0038 · Cited by 36
Renewable Economies in the Arctic
Natcher, D. C., & Koivurova, T. (2021) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003172406 · Cited by 31
Has U.S. employment really polarized? A critical reappraisal
Hunt, J., & Nunn, R. (2022) · Labour Economics · doi:10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102117 · Cited by 26
Corak, M. (2016) · Canadian Public Policy · doi:10.3138/cpp.2016-056 · Cited by 25
“There is an established literature on wage polarization, and important work in the United States is associated with David Autor (Autor 2015, Autor, Levy, and Murnane 2003), but a particularly careful analysis that is informed by Autor’s framework yet sensitive to Canadian realities is offered by Green and Sand (2015).…”
BackgroundA Model of Technological UnemploymentPreprint
Susskind, D. (2017) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 26
El futuro del empleo y las competencias profesionales del futuro: la perspectiva de las empresas
Blázquez, M. L., Masclans, R., & Canals, J. (2018) · doi:10.15581/018.st-490 · Cited by 25
Susskind, D. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780197579329.013.42 · Cited by 26
Metadata
- Authors
- Autor, D. H.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Autor, David H.
- ORCID
- Autor, David H.
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2015-08-01
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 3-30
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1821977771
- Cited by
- 3,917
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 697 · 2025: 579 · 2024: 457 · 2023: 364 · 2022: 309 · 2021: 345 · 2020: 349 · 2019: 312 · 2018: 263 · 2017: 153 · 2016: 72 · 2015: 9
- FWCI
- 398.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Digital Economy and Work Transformation
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Keywords
- workplace automation, labor substitution, labor complementarity, labor demand, labor supply, labor market polarization, wage inequality, artificial intelligence, robotics, career change, job creation, routine tasks, problem-solving skills, comparative advantage
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
