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Cited by 991

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 42 of the 42 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data

Bachmann, Rüdiger, Elstner, Steffen, Sims, Eric R·2013·American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
DOI 10.1257/mac.5.2.217
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Abstract

This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate Survey permits construction of uncertainty measures based on both ex ante disagreement and ex post forecast errors. Ex ante disagreement is strongly correlated with dispersion in ex post forecast errors. Surprise movements in either measure lead to significant reductions in production that abate fairly quickly. We extend our analysis to US data, measuring uncertainty with forecast disagreement from the Business Outlook Survey. Surprise increases in forecast dispersion lead to more persistent reductions in production than in the German data. (JEL C53, C83, D81, E23, E27, E32, E37)

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Metadata

Authors
Bachmann, R., Elstner, S., & Sims, E. R.
Venue
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Publisher
American Economic Association
Published
2013-04-01
Volume
5
Issue
2
Pages
217-249
ISSN
  • 1945-7707 (ISSN-L)
  • 1945-7715
DOI
10.1257/mac.5.2.217
OpenAlex
W3125521856
Cited by
991
References
42
FWCI
185.20
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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