Considerations related to vaping as a possible gateway into cigarette smoking: An analytical review
Open accessAbstract
Background: Toxicant levels are much lower in e-cigarettes than cigarettes. Therefore, introducing e-cigarettes into the market seems likely to reduce smoking-related diseases (SRD). However, vaping might provide a gateway into cigarette smoking for those who otherwise would never have smoked, a concern fueled by cohort studies showing vaping predicts subsequent smoking initiation in young people. Methods: In this discussion paper, we consider various aspects of the gateway issue in youths. We provide a descriptive critical review of results from prospective studies relating to the gateway effect and the extent to which the studies considered other potential confounding variables associated with smoking initiation. We then estimate the effects of omitting a confounding variable, or misclassifying it, on the association between vaping and subsequent smoking initiation, and determine how the prevalence of smoking might be affected by any true gateway-in effects of vaping. Finally, we examine trends in e-cigarette and smoking prevalence in youths based on national surveys. Results: First, we demonstrate that although studies report that vaping significantly predicts smoking initiation following adjustment for various other predictors, the sets of predictors considered are quite incomplete. Furthermore, no study considered residual confounding arising from inaccurate measurement of predictors. More precise adjustment may substantially reduce the association. Second, we show any true gateway effect would likely affect smoking prevalence only modestly. Third, we show smoking prevalence in U.S. and U.K. youths in 2014–2016 declined somewhat faster than predicted by the preceding trend; a substantial gateway effect suggests the opposite. Finally, we argue that even if some gateway effect exists, introducing e-cigarettes still likely reduces SRDs. Conclusions: We have shown that the existence of any true gateway-in effect in youth is not yet clearly demonstrated and that the population health impact of introducing e-cigarettes is still likely to be beneficial.
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Lee, P. N., Abrams, D. B., Bachand, A. M., Baker, G. S., Black, R. A., Camacho, O. M., Curtin, G. M., Djurdjevic, S., Hill, A., Méndez, D., et al. (2020) · Nicotine & Tobacco Research · doi:10.1093/ntr/ntaa102 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Self-citationIncreased e-cigarette use prevalence is associated with decreased smoking prevalence among US adults
Foxon, F., Selya, A., Gitchell, J. G., & Shiffman, S. S. (2024) · Harm Reduction Journal · doi:10.1186/s12954-024-01056-0 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Investigating gateway effects using the PATH study
Lee, P. N., & Fry, J. (2019) · F1000Research · doi:10.12688/f1000research.18354.2 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Self-citationThe “Gateway” hypothesis: evaluation of evidence and alternative explanations
Selya, A. (2024) · Harm Reduction Journal · doi:10.1186/s12954-024-01034-6 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Estimating the reduction in US mortality if cigarettes were largely replaced by e-cigarettes
Lee, P. N., Fry, J. S., Gilliland, S., Campbell, P., & Joyce, A. R. (2021) · Archives of Toxicology · doi:10.1007/s00204-021-03180-3 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Self-citationWhat are the harms of vaping in young people who have never smoked?
Mendelsohn, C. P., & Hall, W. (2023) · International Journal of Drug Policy · doi:10.1016/j.drugpo.2023.104064 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Selya, A., NIAURA, R. S., & Kim, S. (2025) · Drug and Alcohol Dependence · doi:10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2025.112716 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
An Innovative Method of Increasing Early Detection for Skin Cancer in Australia
Lowe, J. B., Balanda, K. P., Mar, C. D., Hegarty, K. L., Sheldrake, M., & Clare, G. (1999) · American Journal of Health Behavior · doi:10.5993/ajhb.23.4.1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Selya, A., & Gitchell, J. G. (2024) · Addiction · doi:10.1111/add.16645 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
E-cigarettes and Vaping: A New Frontier in Youth Drug Prevention
Al-Oudah, G. A., Al-Aaraji, A. J., Hindi, N. K. K., Radhi, M. M., Al-Eqabi, Q. A. K., & Jabbar, W. (2025) · Journal of Biomedicine and Biochemistry · doi:10.57238/jbb.2024.7432.1132
- Authors
- Lee, P. N., Coombs, K. J., & Afolalu, E. F.
- Affiliations
- P N Lee Statistics and Computing (United Kingdom) (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Lee, Peter N.
- Venue
- F1000Research
- Publisher
- F1000 Research Ltd
- Published
- 2018-12-10
- Volume
- 7
- Pages
- 1915
- ISSN
- 2046-1402 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6652100
- OpenAlex
- W4242051085
- Cited by
- 14
- References
- 89
- Citations by year
- 2025: 2 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 1 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 3 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 1
- FWCI
- 0.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- F1000Research (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Philip Morris International (Project Agreement 15)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
- Keywords
- vaping, electronic cigarettes, gateway effect, smoking initiation, adolescent smoking, residual confounding, misclassification, smoking prevalence trends, smoking-related diseases, tobacco control
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