E-cigarette use as a predictor of cigarette smoking: results from a 1-year follow-up of a national sample of 12th grade students
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To prospectively examine vaping as a predictor of future cigarette smoking among youth with and without previous cigarette smoking experience. A secondary aim is to investigate whether vaping may desensitise youth to the dangers of smoking. METHODS: Analysis of prospective longitudinal panel data from the nationally representative Monitoring the Future study. The analysis is based on 347 12th grade students who were part of a randomly selected subsample that completed in-school surveys in 2014 and were resurveyed 1-year later. RESULTS: Among youth who had never smoked a cigarette by 12th grade, baseline, recent vapers were more than 4 times (relative risk (RR)=4.78) more likely to report past-year cigarette smoking at follow-up, even among youth who reported the highest possible level of perceived risk for cigarette smoking at baseline. Among 12th grade students who had smoked in the past but had not recently smoked at baseline, recent vapers were twice (RR=2.15) as likely to report smoking in the past 12 months at the follow-up. Vaping did not predict cessation of smoking among recent smokers at baseline. Among never-smokers at baseline, recent vapers were more than 4 times (RR=4.73) more likely to move away from the perception of cigarettes as posing a 'great risk' of harm, a finding consistent with a desensitisation process. CONCLUSIONS: These results contribute to the growing body of evidence supporting vaping as a one-way bridge to cigarette smoking among youth. Vaping as a risk factor for future smoking is a strong, scientifically-based rationale for restricting youth access to e-cigarettes.
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E-cigarettes were introduced to the US market in 2007 and are now the most commonly used tobacco product among teenagers.
“Although introduced as recently as 2007 to the US market, e-cigarettes are now the most commonly used tobacco product among teenagers (Miech et al., 2017; Wang et al., 2019).”
From Unique, long-term effects of nicotine on adolescent brain. (2020) · cites this paper as Miech et al., 2017
The Introduction reports rapid growth in e-cigarette use among U.S. students, and the Results say recent vaping was about 50% more prevalent than recent cigarette smoking in the study sample. Neither passage establishes that e-cigarettes were introduced to the U.S. market in 2007 or that they were the most commonly used tobacco product among teenagers overall. (LLM, conf=0.83)
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- Authors
- Miech, R., Patrick, M. E., O'Malley, P. M., & Johnston, L. D.
- Affiliations
- University of Michigan (US)
- Corresponding author
- Miech, Richard
- Venue
- Tobacco Control
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2017-02-06
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- e2
- Pages
- e106-e111
- ISSN
- 0964-4563 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-3318
- PMC
- PMC5545162
- OpenAlex
- W2587355417
- Cited by
- 207
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 32 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 41 · 2018: 28 · 2017: 22
- FWCI
- 25.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- europepmc.org
- Locations
- Tobacco Control (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA 001411, DA 016575)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Impact of Technology on Adolescents
- Keywords
- vaping, cigarette smoking, adolescent smoking initiation, never smokers, smoking cessation, high school students
- MeSH terms
- Vaping, Cigarette Smoking, Adolescent, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Prospective Studies, Surveys and Questionnaires, Risk Factors, Students, Smoking Cessation, Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems
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