The DOI matches its Crossref record.
Deconstructing the Pioneer's Advantage: Examining Vintage Effects and Consumer Valuations of Quality and Variety
Abstract
Several studies have demonstrated an order-of-entry effect on market share, suggesting that pioneers outperform later entrants. However, other research has pointed out the limitations of these studies and found evidence that many pioneers fail or have low market share. Given this background, the purpose of this research is to understand the conditions under which pioneers are more likely and also less likely to have an advantage. We propose a game-theoretic model that includes important sources of pioneer advantages as well as disadvantages. Specifically, we incorporate a pioneer advantage due to preemption in markets with heterogeneous tastes. In addition, we incorporate a potential pioneer disadvantage due to technology vintage effects, where later entrants utilizing improved technology can have lower costs and higher quality. The model allows us to evaluate the extent of vintage effects necessary to overcome a pioneer's advantage. Key relationships are found between the magnitude of the pioneer advantage or disadvantage and consumer valuations of product attributes (e.g., variety and quality). We empirically validate the model with vintage effect data in 36 product categories, and measures of consumer valuations of product variety and quality for 12 of these 36 categories. The results show that pioneers do better in product categories where variety is more important and worse in categories where product quality is more important. Pioneers in categories with high vintage ef…
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Following the extant literature on entry timing in fast-cycle industries (Bohlmann et al. 2002;Suarez and Lanzolla 2007), complementors that enter a platform market at an early stage are likely to face a high risk of failure.”
From Smart Timing for Smart Products? Complementor Multihoming in Nascent Platform Markets (2026) · cites this paper as Bohlmann et al. 2002
Citations
Cites
No references could be resolved yet.
Research works printed but not linked: 71
- 10.2307/3152193 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.1509/jmkg.65.1.44.18130 · DOI
- 10.1287/mksc.13.3.248 · DOI
- 10.2307/2295952 · DOI · Paper page
- 10.2307/1911955 · DOI
- 10.1086/261888 · DOI
- Berndt Ernst R., 1995, Amer. Econom. Rev. (Papers Proc.), 85, 100
- 10.1287/mksc.15.3.222 · DOI
- Box George E. P., 1994, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting & Control
- 10.1287/mnsc.40.10.1361 · DOI
- 10.2307/3172901 · DOI
- Christensen Clayton M, 1997, The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail
- 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(199603)17:3<197::AID-SMJ804>3.0.CO;2-U · DOI
- 10.1016/0048-7333(93)00764-K · DOI
- 10.2307/2297588 · DOI
- 10.2307/1251492 · DOI
- 10.1287/mksc.20.3.265.9767 · DOI
- 10.1016/0166-0462(89)90031-8 · DOI
- 10.1287/mnsc.36.8.900 · DOI
- 10.2307/2950531 · DOI
- 10.1287/mksc.10.2.161 · DOI
- 10.2307/3172825 · DOI
- 10.1287/mksc.11.4.348 · DOI
- 10.2307/3172920 · DOI
- 10.2307/2667123 · DOI
- 10.1287/mksc.7.1.76 · DOI
- 10.1287/mksc.2.4.319 · DOI
- 10.2307/1251998 · DOI
- 10.2307/2555761 · DOI
- 10.2307/2393549 · DOI
- Hotelling Harold, 1929, Econom. J., 39, 41
- 10.1287/mnsc.40.10.1370 · DOI
- 10.2307/3440248 · DOI
- 10.2307/1251428 · DOI
- 10.2307/1251246 · DOI
- 10.2307/1909440 · DOI
- Johansen Leif, 1972, Production Functions
- Johnston J., 1977, Econometric Methods
- 10.1287/mksc.14.3.G212 · DOI
- 10.2307/3172744 · DOI
- 10.1086/209333 · DOI
- 10.2307/1251985 · DOI
- 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(199904)20:4<375::AID-SMJ15>3.0.CO;2-Y · DOI
- 10.2307/3003410 · DOI
- 10.1016/0167-8116(96)00003-1 · DOI
- 10.1002/smj.4250080504 · DOI
- 10.1002/smj.4250090706 · DOI
- 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0266(1998120)19:12<1111::AID-SMJ21>3.0.CO;2-W · DOI
- 10.1016/0022-0531(89)90099-9 · DOI
- 10.2307/3172729 · DOI
- 10.1287/mksc.7.2.141 · DOI
- 10.1086/209438 · DOI
- Nakanishi Masao, 1988, Market Share Analysis: Evaluating Competitive Marketing Effectiveness
- 10.1287/mksc.19.4.313.11790 · DOI
- Neven Damien, 1990, Economic Decision-Making: Games, Econometrics and Optimisation
- 10.1016/0022-0531(80)90045-9 · DOI
- 10.1007/BF00640796 · DOI
- 10.1111/j.1430-9134.1992.00397.x · DOI
- 10.2307/3003293 · DOI
- Reinganum Jennifer F., 1983, Amer. Econom. Rev., 73, 741
- 10.2307/3172928 · DOI
- 10.2307/3151427 · DOI
- Schmalensee Richard, 1982, Amer. Econom. Rev., 72, 349
- Schnaars Steven P., 1994, Managing Imitation Strategies: How Later Entrants Seize Markets from Pioneers
- 10.2307/2297136 · DOI
- 10.2307/3152080 · DOI
- 10.2307/3151930 · DOI
- 10.2307/3003508 · DOI
- Sutton John, 1998, Technology and Market Structure
- 10.1287/mnsc.46.7.928.12038 · DOI
- 10.1287/mksc.14.2.224 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 101–142 of 142
Extending perfect timing theory: not just one but several windows of opportunity
Galati, F. (2018) · Technology Analysis & Strategic Management · doi:10.1080/09537325.2018.1472760 · Cited by 3
First-Mover Advantage through Distribution: A Decomposition Approach
Nishida, M. (2017) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2212215 · Cited by 3
Rabbits and turtles and the quest for entry-timing advantage
Tuppura, A. (2009) · doi:10.1504/ijbir.2009.021654 · Cited by 3
“The pioneering strategy may be riskier than the follower strategy because the pioneer may face significantly greater uncertainty and greater costs compared to later entrants (e.g. Wernerfelt and Karnani, 1987; Bohlmann et al., 2002; Boulding and Christen, 2003).”
BackgroundLichtenberg, F. R., & Krstovski, K. (2025) · Journal of Demographic Economics · doi:10.1017/dem.2024.27 · Cited by 2
“” Bohlmann et al. (2002, p. 1177) said that “ technology improves over time … As technology advances, later entrants can utilize a more recent and efficient vintage of technology than an earlier entrant who has committed to older technology … vintage effects will benefit later entrants … We refer…”
Bohlmann, J., Stanko, M. A., & Spanjol, J. (2024) · Academy of Marketing Science Review · doi:10.1007/s13162-024-00281-x · Cited by 2
“…effects often benefit an early incumbent that can influence customer preference formation for a longer time period, later entrants can gain advantage through superior differentiation on prod - uct attributes important to and recognizable by customers (Bohlmann et al., 2002; Zhang & Markman, 1998).”
InfluentialSelf-citationSmart Timing for Smart Products? Complementor Multihoming in Nascent Platform Markets
Aydin, S., Suarez, F. F., Bart, Y., & Libaers, D. P. (2019) · Academy of Management Proceedings · doi:10.5465/ambpp.2019.41 · Cited by 2
“research has shown, later entrants into a market space characterized by fast-moving technology can outcompete early movers with more sophisticated products using the latest technology (Bohlmann et al., 2002; Kretschmer and Claussen 2016).”
BackgroundZhu, L., Li, N.-A., Zhang, Y., & Shi, Q. (2017) · Int. J. Netw. Virtual Organisations · doi:10.1504/ijnvo.2017.10006541 · Cited by 2
Choice Manipulation Through Comparability in Markets with Verifiable Multi-Attribute Products
Caprio, D. D., Arteaga, F. J. S., & Tavana, M. (2015) · International Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making · doi:10.1142/s0219622014500886 · Cited by 2
Papachristos, G., & Suárez, F. F. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4156876 · Cited by 2
“This is done to account for “vintage effects” in high-velocity technology environments, whereby rapid technology evolution may render first entrant knowledge obsolete and erode its competences faster than that of later entrants, prompting users to shift toward the later entrant products that feature newer technology (…”
BackgroundPosselt, T., & Berger, P. (2007) · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-29860-1_10 · Cited by 2
“Considerable theoretical and empirical research [ 2 , 16, 17, 22, 26, 29, 33] has been done to investigate the effects of the market entry order on long-term market share.”
BackgroundEntry Timing, Pre-Entry Knowledge Diversity, and Innovation Performance in AI Technology
Lin, X., & Wu, D. (2024) · Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET) · doi:10.23919/picmet64035.2024.10653261
“What’s more, based on the consumer awareness, firms could invest more in high-value products [64, 65] or merely imitate early entrants with lower costs [66, 67].”
BackgroundMarketing-Mix: Produkt- und programmpolitische Entscheidungen
Meffert, H., Burmann, C., Kirchgeorg, M., & Eisenbeiß, M. (2018) · Marketing · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-21196-7_5 · Cited by 1
Managing New Technology Using Malleable Profit Functions
Arend, R. J., Lévesque, M., & Minniti, M. (2017) · IEEE transactions on engineering management · doi:10.1109/tem.2017.2663844 · Cited by 1
“, [34], [35]), and technological entrepreneurial rents are often short-lived.”
BackgroundPinto, J., & Escudero, A. I. (2011) · ICE, Revista de Economía · doi:10.32796/ice.2011.860.1423 · Cited by 1
“(1991): «The Resource-based Theory of Competitive Advantage: Implications for Strategy Formulation», California Management Review, volumen 33 (3), páginas 114-135.”
InfluentialShi, L. (2007) · doi:10.1504/ijemr.2007.014846 · Cited by 1
“The FMA literature (Robinson and Min, 2002; Robinson et al., 1992; Robinson and Fornell, 1985; Golder and Tellis, 1993; Bohlmann et al., 2002; Chatterjee and Sugitar, 1990) tends to consider the strategy of pioneering new markets to lead to long-term success and argue that pioneering firms or first movers view new mar…”
BackgroundLooking Ahead to New Product Diffusion
Gatignon, H., Gotteland, D., & Haon, C. (2016) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-137-57264-6_6
Disruptive Product Strategy for Industry First Mover: A Bottom-Up, Low-Cost Innovation Model
Lu, I.-Y., & Wei, C.-C. (2012) · doi:10.4018/978-1-4666-0134-5.ch005 · Cited by 1
Demand-side inertia factors and their benefits for innovativeness
Stanko, M. A., Bohlmann, J., & Molina-Castillo, F. (2013) · Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science · doi:10.1007/s11747-013-0332-y
“…able to preempt valuable perceptual space (i.e., the positioning most preferred by customers) to its potential advantage, as demonstrated in numerous FMA studies drawing from RBV and economic theory of demand (Bohlmann et al. 2002; Carpenter and Nakamoto 1990; Lieberman and Montgomery 1998).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationAn Alternative Model of Brand Loyalty
Gao, X., & Choudhary, V. (2026) · Information systems research · doi:10.1287/isre.2022.0278
Kang, H. Y. (2026) · Electronic Markets · doi:10.1007/s12525-026-00903-1
“To capture vintage effects (Bohlmann et al., 2002), we included app age by calculating the time elapsed since the application’s launch.”
The Economics of AI Supply Chain Regulation
Qian, S., Mehra, A., & Liu, D. (2026) · arXiv.org · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2603.12630
“Similarly, Bohlmann et al. (2002) analyze the sequential entry of firms into downstream markets and empirically show that the negative effect of declining IT costs on the profit of the pioneer is more pronounced in product categories where quality is a key differentiator.”
Song, Y., Zhao, E., Yan, X., & Yin, J. (2026) · Asia Pacific Journal of Management · doi:10.1007/s10490-025-10100-x
Entrant Integrative Capability and Incumbent Bias
Li, M., Liang, C., & Zhang, S. (2025) · Production and operations management · doi:10.1177/10591478251378839
“The entrant has a cost advantage over the incumbent, and the entrant’s development cost is normalized to zero; numerous examples have been reported in the popular press and literature on the follower’s cost advantage (Bohlmann et al., 2002; Boulding and Christen, 2001).”
The impact of biomedical innovation on cancer mortality in 37 countries, 2003-2017.
Lichtenberg, F. R. (2025) · Economics and Human Biology · doi:10.1016/j.ehb.2025.101534
Lichtenberg, F. R. (2025) · Econometrics · doi:10.3390/econometrics13030025
“Bohlmann et al. (2002, p. 1177) said that “technology improves over time. . .”
Zhang, S.-P., Shu, W., & Du, B. (2025) · Syst. · doi:10.3390/systems13040273
Maslach, D., Rousseau, H., & Lamont, B. (2024) · Journal of Management · doi:10.1177/01492063241303059
“Consequently, pioneers play a crucial role in product and market development, patenting, and influencing later entrants (Bohlmann et al., 2002; Boulding & Christen, 2009; Gao & McDonald, 2022; Mitchell & Skrzypacz, 2015).”
InfluentialENTRY ORDER, PERFORMANCE, AND GEOGRAPHY: THE CASE OF THE CONVENIENCE‐STORE INDUSTRY IN JAPAN
Nishida, M. (2024) · International Economic Review · doi:10.1111/iere.12742
Quantity and Quality in a Video On-Demand Service
George, N., Sharma, S., & Telang, R. (2020) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3605989
An empirical examination of the product variety management in Brazilian bus body manufacturer
Reis, A. D. C., Vieira, P. S., Dias, A., Pizetta, L. M., & Silveira, H. (2018) · Revista Eletrônica do Mestrado Profissional em Administração · doi:10.21714/raunp.v10i3.1850
“However, the literature can be divided into two main streams areas: marketing (Bohlmann et al., 2002; Brynjolfsson et al., 2003; Hui, 2004 & Shankar, 2006) and operations management (Bennet & Forrester, 1994; Berry & Cooper, 1999; Thyssen et al., 2006; Vaagen & Wallace, 2008; Scavarda et al., 2009;…”
BackgroundTavana, M., Caprio, D. D., & Santos-Arteaga, F. (2018) · Technological and Economic Development of Economy · doi:10.3846/tede.2018.4531
“…behavior of DMs within these types of scenarios products are generally restricted to vectors of two characteristics, both in the economic (Malerba, Nelson, Orsenigo & Winter, 2007) and the operational research and management (Bohlmann, Golder & Mitra, 2002; Lee, J. & Lee, J. N., 2009) literatures.”
BackgroundDisadvantaged Early Entrants? Entry Order Effects on Product Performance
Kitjavainen, J., & Mäkinen, S. (2018) · 2018 IEEE Technology and Engineering Management Conference (TEMSCON) · doi:10.1109/temscon.2018.8488402
“However, to the best of our knowledge, existing literature remains missing in this important link except for [11] venturing more in these lines.”
BackgroundSantos‐Arteaga, F. J., Caprio, D. D., Madjid Tavana, D., & O’Connor, A. (2016) · International Journal of Innovation Management · doi:10.1142/s1363919617500189 · Cited by 1
“Bohlmann et al. (2002) show that pioneers in categories with large vintage effects generally have lower market shares and higher failure rates.”
BackgroundEffects of strategic customer behavior on imitative innovation supply chain performance
Yang, G.-Y., & Ji, G. (2012) · ICSSSM12 · doi:10.1109/icsssm.2012.6252350
“The papers that study on entrant strategies include, pioneers do better in product categories where variety is more important and worse in categories where product quality is more important [7].”
BackgroundSuarez, F. F. (2012) · Revista Europea de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa · doi:10.1016/s1019-6838(12)70002-1
Feature Loyalty: Blessing or Curse for Duopolists? A Comparison with Brand Loyalty
Gao, X., & Choudhary, V. (2024) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4836967
The Rise of an Emerging Brand in the Mobile Landscape: A Case Study of Samsung Galaxy
Nguyen, B., Melewar, T., & Schultz, D. (2017) · doi:10.1057/978-1-137-48996-8_16
New Technology Imitation: Who Is Copied More Quickly?
Giachetti, C. (2013) · Palgrave Macmillan UK eBooks · doi:10.1057/9781137374127_5
Untersuchungsergebnisse und Handlungsempfehlungen
Salomon, R. (2013) · doi:10.1007/978-3-658-03291-3_4
Metadata
- Authors
- Bohlmann, J. D., Golder, P. N., & Mitra, D.
- Affiliations
- Michigan State University (US)
- New York University (US)
- University of Florida (US)
- Venue
- Management Science
- Published
- 2002-09
- Volume
- 48
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 1175-1195
- ISSN
- 0025-1909 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-5501
- OpenAlex
- W2113468393
- Cited by
- 180
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 11 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 11
- FWCI
- 16.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Management Science (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Marketing › Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Merger and Competition Analysis
- Keywords
- first-mover advantage, market entry order, preemption, heterogeneous consumer preferences, product quality, product variety, consumer valuation, market share, game-theoretic model
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review