Most published research findings are false-but a little replication goes a long way.
Open accessAbstract
While the authors agree with John Ioannidis that "most research findings are false," here they show that replication of research findings enhances the positive predictive value of research findings being true.
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Variation in results across populations is expected because of population-level differences.
“Some variation is expected owing to populationlevel differences.28”
From Association of Genetic and Environmental Factors With Autism in a 5-Country Cohort (2019) · cites this paper as [28]
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Cites
Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2005) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124 · Cited by 10,505 · see citing works
Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2005) · CHANCE · doi:10.1080/09332480.2005.10722754 · Cited by 4,702 · see citing works
The common PPARγ Pro12Ala polymorphism is associated with decreased risk of type 2 diabetes
Altshuler, D., Hirschhorn, J. N., Klannemark, M., Lindgren, C. M., Vohl, M.-C., Nemesh, J., Lane, C. R., Schaffner, S. F., Bolk, S., Brewer, C., et al. (2000) · Nature Genetics · doi:10.1038/79216 · Cited by 1,766 · see citing works
A comprehensive review of genetic association studies
Hirschhorn, J. N., Lohmueller, K., Byrne, E., & Hirschhorn, K. (2002) · Genetics in Medicine · doi:10.1097/00125817-200203000-00002 · Cited by 1,674 · see citing works
Association study designs for complex diseases
Cardon, L. R., & Bell, J. I. (2001) · Nature Reviews Genetics · doi:10.1038/35052543 · Cited by 1,380 · see citing works
Ioannidis, J. P. A., & Trikalinos, T. A. (2005) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.10.019 · Cited by 326 · see citing works
(1999) · Nature Genetics · doi:10.1038/8702 · Cited by 264 · see citing works
Once and Again—Issues Surrounding Replication in Genetic Association Studies
Hirschhorn, J. N., & Altshuler, D. (2002) · The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism · doi:10.1210/jc.2002-021329 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Nonreplication in Genetic Association Studies of Obesity and Diabetes Research
Redden, D. T., & Allison, D. B. (2003) · Journal of Nutrition · doi:10.1093/jn/133.11.3323 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
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Vandenbroucke, J. P., von Elm, E., Altman, D. G., Gøtzsche, P. C., Mulrow, C. D., Pocock, S. J., Poole, C., Schlesselman, J. J., Egger, M., & Initiative, F. T. S. (2007) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040297 · Cited by 8,613 · see citing works
“Adjusting for multiple looks at the data may not be possible or desirable [9], but further studies to confirm or refute initial observations are often needed [10].”
Vandenbroucke, J. P., Elm, E. V., Altman, D. G., Gøtzsche, P. C., Mulrow, C. D., Pocock, S. J., Poole, C., Schlesselman, J. J., Egger, M., & initiative, F. T. S. (2007) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-147-8-200710160-00010-w1 · Cited by 3,543 · see citing works
Vandenbroucke, J. P., von Elm, E., Altman, D. G., Gøtzsche, P. C., Mulrow, C. D., Pocock, S. J., Poole, C., Schlesselman, J. J., & Egger, M. (2014) · International Journal of Surgery · doi:10.1016/j.ijsu.2014.07.014 · Cited by 2,969 · see citing works
Vandenbroucke, J. P., von Elm, E., Altman, D. G., Gøtzsche, P. C., Mulrow, C. D., Pocock, S. J., Poole, C., Schlesselman, J. J., & Egger, M. (2007) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0b013e3181577511 · Cited by 2,779 · see citing works
Association of Genetic and Environmental Factors With Autism in a 5-Country Cohort
Bai, D., Yip, B. H. K., Windham, G. C., Sourander, A., Francis, R., Yoffe, R., Glasson, E., Mahjani, B., Suominen, A., Leonard, H., et al. (2019) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2019.1411 · Cited by 683 · see citing works
Open science challenges, benefits and tips in early career and beyond
Allen, C., & Mehler, D. M. A. (2019) · PLOS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3000246 · Cited by 608 · see citing works
Observational research, randomised trials, and two views of medical science
Vandenbroucke, J. P. (2008) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050067 · Cited by 416 · see citing works
Synthesis of observational studies should consider credibility ceilings
Salanti, G., & Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2009) · Journal of Clinical Epidemiology · doi:10.1016/j.jclinepi.2008.05.014 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Replication in computing education research: researcher attitudes and experiences
Ahadi, A., Hellas, A., Ihantola, P., Korhonen, A., & Petersen, A. (2016) · Proceedings of the 16th Koli Calling International Conference on Computing Education Research · doi:10.1145/2999541.2999554 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Single-case experimental research designs.
Kazdin, A. E. (2015) · Methodological issues and strategies in clinical research (4th ed.). · doi:10.1037/14805-029 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
- Authors
- Moonesinghe, R., Khoury, M. J., & Janssens, A. C. J. W.
- Affiliations
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- Corresponding author
- Moonesinghe, Ramal
- Venue
- PLoS Medicine
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2007-02-27
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- e28
- ISSN
- 1549-1277 (ISSN-L)
- 1549-1676
- PMC
- PMC1808082
- OpenAlex
- W2166420405
- Cited by
- 341
- References
- 9
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 20 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 14 · 2014: 27 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 14.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- PLoS Medicine (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
- RePub (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Information Systems and Management › Academic Publishing and Open Access
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Keywords
- research reproducibility, replication, false positives, positive predictive value, research validity, publication bias
- MeSH terms
- Data Interpretation, Statistical, Humans, Predictive Value of Tests, Publishing, Research Design, Models, Statistical
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