Social Network Sensors for Early Detection of Contagious Outbreaks
Open accessAbstract
Current methods for the detection of contagious outbreaks give contemporaneous information about the course of an epidemic at best. It is known that individuals near the center of a social network are likely to be infected sooner during the course of an outbreak, on average, than those at the periphery. Unfortunately, mapping a whole network to identify central individuals who might be monitored for infection is typically very difficult. We propose an alternative strategy that does not require ascertainment of global network structure, namely, simply monitoring the friends of randomly selected individuals. Such individuals are known to be more central. To evaluate whether such a friend group could indeed provide early detection, we studied a flu outbreak at Harvard College in late 2009. We followed 744 students who were either members of a group of randomly chosen individuals or a group of their friends. Based on clinical diagnoses, the progression of the epidemic in the friend group occurred 13.9 days (95% C.I. 9.9-16.6) in advance of the randomly chosen group (i.e., the population as a whole). The friend group also showed a significant lead time (p<0.05) on day 16 of the epidemic, a full 46 days before the peak in daily incidence in the population as a whole. This sensor method could provide significant additional time to react to epidemics in small or large populations under surveillance. The amount of lead time will depend on features of the outbreak and the network at hand. The method could in principle be generalized to other biological, psychological, informational, or behavioral contagions that spread in networks.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Rogers, E. M., Singhal, A., & Quinlan, M. M. (2019) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203710753-35 · Cited by 37,557 · see citing works
Mack, P., & Rogers, E. (1964) · Encyclopedia of Sport Management · doi:10.2307/3319808 · Cited by 23,611 · see citing works
A set of measures of centrality based upon betweenness
Freeman, L. (1977) · Sociometry · doi:10.2307/3033543 · Cited by 10,557 · see citing works
Stanton, B. F., & Rogers, E. M. (1963) · Journal of Farm Economics · doi:10.2307/1235767 · Cited by 6,725 · see citing works
Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data
Ginsberg, J., Mohebbi, M. H., Patel, R. S., Brammer, L., Smolinski, M. S., & Brilliant, L. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature07634 · Cited by 4,295 · see citing works
Nonlinear Regression Analysis and Its Applications
Bates, D. M., & Watts, D. G. (1988) · Wiley series in probability and statistics · doi:10.1002/9780470316757 · Cited by 4,017 · see citing works
Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases
Mossong, J., Hens, N., Jit, M., Beutels, P., Auranen, K., Mikolajczyk, R., Massari, M., Salmaso, S., Tomba, G. S., Wallinga, J., et al. (2008) · PLoS Medicine · doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074 · Cited by 2,900 · see citing works
An algorithm for drawing general undirected graphs
Kamada, T., & Kawai, S. (1989) · Information Processing Letters · doi:10.1016/0020-0190(89)90102-6 · Cited by 2,670 · see citing works
Cost-effective outbreak detection in networks
Leskovec, J., Krause, A., Guestrin, C., Faloutsos, C., VanBriesen, J. M., & Glance, N. (2007) · ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD) · doi:10.1145/1281192.1281239 · Cited by 2,561 · see citing works
The collective dynamics of smoking in a large social network
Christakis, N. A., & Fowler, J. H. (2008) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmsa0706154 · Cited by 2,390 · see citing works
Self-citationCritical phenomena in complex networks
Dorogovtsev, S. N., Goltsev, A. V., & Mendes, J. F. F. (2008) · Reviews of Modern Physics · doi:10.1103/revmodphys.80.1275 · Cited by 2,220 · see citing works
The Empirical Distribution Function with Arbitrarily Grouped, Censored and Truncated Data
Turnbull, B. W. (1976) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Statistical Methodology) · doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1976.tb01597.x · Cited by 1,835 · see citing works
Immunization of complex networks
Pastor‐Satorras, R., & Vespignani, A. (2002) · Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics · doi:10.1103/physreve.65.036104 · Cited by 1,296 · see citing works
Efficient Immunization Strategies for Computer Networks and Populations
Reuven Cohen, C., Havlin, S., & ben‐Avraham, D. (2003) · Physical Review Letters · doi:10.1103/physrevlett.91.247901 · Cited by 1,175 · see citing works
Chains of affection: the structure of adolescent romantic and sexual networks
Bearman, P. S., Moody, J., & Stovel, K. (2004) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/386272 · Cited by 817 · see citing works
Google Trends: A Web‐Based Tool for Real‐Time Surveillance of Disease Outbreaks
Carneiro, H. A., & Mylonakis, E. E. (2009) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1086/630200 · Cited by 815 · see citing works
Cooperative behavior cascades in human social networks
Fowler, J. H., & Christakis, N. A. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0913149107 · Cited by 767 · see citing works
Self-citationWhy Your Friends Have More Friends Than You Do
Feld, S. L. (1991) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/229693 · Cited by 591 · see citing works
Halting viruses in scale-free networks
Dezső, Z., & Barabási, A.-Ĺ. (2002) · Physical review. E, Statistical physics, plasmas, fluids, and related interdisciplinary topics · doi:10.1103/physreve.65.055103 · Cited by 585 · see citing works
Social network determinants of depression
Rosenquist, J. N., Fowler, J. H., & Christakis, N. A. (2011) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/mp.2010.13 · Cited by 543 · see citing works
Self-citationHousehold Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus in the United States
Cauchemez, S., Donnelly, C. A., Reed, C., Ghani, A. C., Fraser, C., Kent, C. K., Finelli, L., & Ferguson, N. M. (2009) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa0905498 · Cited by 472 · see citing works
Nonlinear Regression Analysis and Its Applications.
Kass, R. E., Bates, D. M., Watts, D. G., Seber, G. A. F., & Wild, C. J. (1990) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2289810 · Cited by 397 · see citing works
Infection in Social Networks: Using Network Analysis to Identify High-Risk Individuals
Christley, R., Pinchbeck, G. L., Bowers, R., Clancy, D., French, N. P., Bennett, R., & Turner, J. (2005) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwi308 · Cited by 390 · see citing works
Geographic Dependence, Surveillance, and Origins of the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Virus
Trifonov, V. A., Khiabanian, H., & Rabadán, R. (2009) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmp0904572 · Cited by 331 · see citing works
Pre-existing immunity against swine-origin H1N1 influenza viruses in the general human population
Greenbaum, J., Kotturi, M. F., Kim, Y., Oseroff, C., Vaughan, K. C., Salimi, N., Vita, R., Ponomarenko, J. V., Scheuermann, R. H., Sette, A., et al. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0911580106 · Cited by 317 · see citing works
Outbreak of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) at a New York City School
Lessler, J., Reich, N. G., & Cummings, D. A. T. (2009) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa0906089 · Cited by 308 · see citing works
Ego-centered networks and the ripple effect
Newman, M. E. J. (2003) · Social Networks · doi:10.1016/s0378-8733(02)00039-4 · Cited by 287 · see citing works
Dushoff, J. G., Plotkin, J. B., Viboud, C. G., Earn, D. J. D., & Simonsen, L. (2005) · American Journal of Epidemiology · doi:10.1093/aje/kwj024 · Cited by 257 · see citing works
Exploiting Social Networks to Mitigate the Obesity Epidemic
Bahr, D. B., Browning, R. C., Wyatt, H. R., & Hill, J. O. (2009) · Obesity · doi:10.1038/oby.2008.615 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
Pajek Program for Analysis and Visualization of Large Networks
Batagelj, V., & Mrvar, A. (2007) · Cited by 183 · see citing works
Rescattering of Ultralow-Energy Electrons for Single Ionization of Ne in the Tunneling Regime
Moshammer, R., Ullrich, J., Feuerstein, B., Fischer, D., Dorn, A., Schröter, C. D., López-Urrutia, J. R. C., Hoehr, C., Rottke, H., Trump, C., et al. (2003) · Physical Review Letters · doi:10.1103/physrevlett.91.113002 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
The popularity contest at work: Who wins, why, and what do they receive?
Scott, B. A., & Judge, T. A. (2009) · Journal of Applied Psychology · doi:10.1037/a0012951 · Cited by 158 · see citing works
SOME A PRIORI PATHOMETRIC EQUATIONS
Ross, R. S. (1915) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.1.2830.546 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity
Polgreen, P. M., Nelson, F. D., Neumann, G. R., & Weinstein, R. A. (2006) · Clinical Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1086/510427 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
Zuckerman, E. W., & Jost, J. T. (2001) · Social Psychology Quarterly · doi:10.2307/3090112 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination Against Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 2009
Khazeni, N., Hutton, D. W., Garber, A. M., Hupert, N., & Owens, D. K. (2009) · Annals of Internal Medicine · doi:10.7326/0000605-200912150-00157 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009
Khazeni, N., Hutton, D. W., Garber, A. M., Hupert, N., & Owens, D. K. (2009) · Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Statistical Tools for Nonlinear Regression: A Practical Guide with S-PLUS Examples.
Pinheiro, J. C., Hue, S., Bouvier, A., Poursat, M.-A., & Jolivet, E. (1997) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2965596 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Statistical Tools for Nonlinear Regression: a Practical Guide With S-PLUS and R Examples
Anderson‐Cook, C. M. (2004) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/jasa.2004.s351 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Davey, V. J., Glass, R. J., Min, H. J., Beyeler, W., & Glass, L. M. (2008) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0002606 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Identifying influential spreaders in complex networksPreprint
Kitsak, M., Gallos, L. K., Havlin, S., Liljeros, F., Muchnik, L., Stanley, E., & Makse, H. A. (2010) · arXiv (Cornell University) · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Update: influenza activity - United States, August 30, 2009-January 9, 2010.
Brammer, L., Epperson, S., Blanton, L., Wallis, T. R., Fiore, A. E., Gubareva, L. V., Bresee, J., Kamimoto, L., Xu, X., Klimov, A. I., et al. (2010) · MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Update: influenza activity--United States, August 30, 2009-January 9, 2010.
(2010) · PubMed · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Link-space formalism for network analysis
Smith, D. M., Lee, C. F., Onnela, J.-P. “., & Johnson, N. F. (2008) · Physical Review E · doi:10.1103/physreve.77.036112 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009.
Khazeni, N., Hutton, D. W., Garber, A. M., et al. (2009) · PubMed · doi:10.7326/0003-4819-151-12-200912150-00157 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response
Bavel, J. J. V., Baicker, K., Boggio, P. S., Capraro, V., Cichocka, A., Cikara, M., Crockett, M. J., Crum, A. J., Douglas, K. M., Druckman, J. N., et al. (2020) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-020-0884-z · Cited by 4,964 · see citing works
Self-citationEpidemic processes in complex networks
Pastor-Satorras, R., Castellano, C., Van Mieghem, P., & Vespignani, A. (2015) · Reviews of Modern Physics · doi:10.1103/revmodphys.87.925 · Cited by 3,697 · see citing works
Social contagion theory: examining dynamic social networks and human behavior
Christakis, N. A., & Fowler, J. H. (2013) · Statistics in Medicine · doi:10.1002/sim.5408 · Cited by 1,303 · see citing works
Self-citationIncreasing Vaccination: Putting Psychological Science Into Action
Brewer, N. T., Chapman, G. B., Rothman, A. J., Leask, J., & Kempe, A. (2017) · Psychological Science in the Public Interest · doi:10.1177/1529100618760521 · Cited by 1,233 · see citing works
Statistical physics of vaccination
Wang, Z., Bauch, C. T., Bhattacharyya, S., d’Onofrio, A., Manfredi, P., Perc, M., Perra, N., Salathé, M., & Zhao, D. (2016) · Physics Reports · doi:10.1016/j.physrep.2016.10.006 · Cited by 954 · see citing works
Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China
Jia, J. S., Lu, X., Yuan, Y., Xu, G., Jia, J., & Christakis, N. A. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2284-y · Cited by 835 · see citing works
Self-citationIntuitive Cooperation and the Social Heuristics Hypothesis: Evidence from 15 Time Constraint Studies
Rand, D. G., Peysakhovich, A., Kraft‐Todd, G., Newman, G. E., Wurzbacher, O., Nowak, M. A., & Greene, J. D. (2013) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms4677 · Cited by 730 · see citing works
Systems Science Methods in Public Health: Dynamics, Networks, and Agents
Luke, D. A., & Stamatakis, K. A. (2012) · Annual Review of Public Health · doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031210-101222 · Cited by 704 · see citing works
Social Connectedness: Measurement, Determinants, and Effects
Bailey, M., Cao, R., Kuchler, T., Stroebel, J., & Wong, A. (2018) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.32.3.259 · Cited by 600 · see citing works
Instagram photos reveal predictive markers of depression
Reece, A. G., & Danforth, C. M. (2017) · EPJ Data Science · doi:10.1140/epjds/s13688-017-0110-z · Cited by 519 · see citing works
#Earthquake: Twitter as a Distributed Sensor System
Crooks, A. T., Croitoru, A., Stefanidis, A., & Radzikowski, J. (2012) · Transactions in GIS · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9671.2012.01359.x · Cited by 470 · see citing works
Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics
Siettos, C. I., & Russo, L. (2013) · Virulence · doi:10.4161/viru.24041 · Cited by 466 · see citing works
The Economic Consequences of Social-Network Structure
Jackson, M. O., Rogers, B. W., & Zénou, Y. (2017) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/jel.20150694 · Cited by 479 · see citing works
Forecasting the onset and course of mental illness with Twitter data
Reece, A. G., Reagan, A. J., Lix, K. L. M., Dodds, P. S., Danforth, C. M., & Langer, E. J. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-12961-9 · Cited by 401 · see citing works
Internet addiction in adolescence: neurobiological, psychosocial and clinical issues
Cerniglia, L., Zoratto, F., Cimino, S., Laviola, G., Ammaniti, M., & Adriani, W. (2017) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2016.12.024 · Cited by 371 · see citing works
Kim, D. A., Hwong, A. R., Stafford, D., Hughes, D. A., O'Malley, A. J., Fowler, J. H., & Christakis, N. A. (2015) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(15)60095-2 · Cited by 350 · see citing works
Self-citationControl Centrality and Hierarchical Structure in Complex Networks
Liu, Y., Slotine, J.-J. E., & Barabási, A.-Ĺ. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0044459 · Cited by 322 · see citing works
Helbing, D. (2012) · Understanding complex systems · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-24004-1_2 · Cited by 324 · see citing works
The Critical Node Detection Problem in networks: A survey
Lalou, M., Tahraoui, M. A., & Kheddouci, H. (2018) · Computer Science Review · doi:10.1016/j.cosrev.2018.02.002 · Cited by 313 · see citing works
Edge-based compartmental modelling for infectious disease spread
Miller, J. C., Slim, A. C., & Volz, E. (2011) · Journal of The Royal Society Interface · doi:10.1098/rsif.2011.0403 · Cited by 280 · see citing works
Spreading dynamics in complex networks
Pei, S., & Makse, H. A. (2013) · Journal of Statistical Mechanics Theory and Experiment · doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2013/12/p12002 · Cited by 249 · see citing works
Absence of influential spreaders in rumor dynamics
Borge‐Holthoefer, J., & Moreno, Y. (2012) · Physical Review E · doi:10.1103/physreve.85.026116 · Cited by 248 · see citing works
Monitoring Influenza Epidemics in China with Search Query from Baidu
Yuan, Q., Nsoesie, E. O., Lv, B., Peng, G., Chunara, R., & Brownstein, J. S. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064323 · Cited by 233 · see citing works
Centrality measures in networks
Bloch, F., Jackson, M. O., & Tebaldi, P. (2023) · Social Choice and Welfare · doi:10.1007/s00355-023-01456-4 · Cited by 363 · see citing works
Herd Immunity and Implications for SARS-CoV-2 Control
Omer, S. B., Yildirim, I. B., & Forman, H. P. (2020) · JAMA · doi:10.1001/jama.2020.20892 · Cited by 214 · see citing works
Liou, J.-W., & Chang, H. (2012) · Archivum Immunologiae et Therapiae Experimentalis · doi:10.1007/s00005-012-0178-x · Cited by 205 · see citing works
A measure of individual role in collective dynamics
Klemm, K., Serrano, M. Á., Eguı́luz, V. M., & Miguel, M. S. (2012) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep00292 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
The “majority illusion” in social networks
Lerman, K., Yan, X., & Wu, X.-Z. (2016) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0147617 · Cited by 669 · see citing works
RETRACTED: Global impacts of pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic: Focus on socio-economic consequences
Mishra, N. T. P., Das, S. S., Yadav, S., Khan, W., Afzal, M. F., AlArifi, A. S., Kenawy, E.-R., Ansari, M. T., Hasnain, M. S., & Nayak, A. K. (2020) · Sensors International · doi:10.1016/j.sintl.2020.100042 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
RetractedSuppressing epidemics with a limited amount of immunization units
Schneider, C., Mihaljev, T., Havlin, S., & Herrmann, H. J. (2011) · Physical Review E · doi:10.1103/physreve.84.061911 · Cited by 165 · see citing works
Al-Hasan, A., Yim, D., & Khuntia, J. (2020) · Journal of Medical Internet Research · doi:10.2196/20634 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Cascading outbreak prediction in networks
Cui, P., Jin, S., Yu, L., Wang, F., Zhu, W., & Yang, S. (2013) · ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD) · doi:10.1145/2487575.2487639 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
The effectiveness of backward contact tracing in networks
Kojaku, S., Hébert‐Dufresne, L., Mones, E., Lehmann, S., & Ahn, Y. (2021) · Nature Physics · doi:10.1038/s41567-021-01187-2 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
Performance of Social Network Sensors during Hurricane Sandy
Kryvasheyeu, Y., Chen, H., Moro, E., Hentenryck, P. V., & Cebrián, M. (2015) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0117288 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
The Economic Consequences of Social Network StructurePreprint
Jackson, M. O., Rogers, B. W., & Zénou, Y. (2015) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2467812 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Trending Now: Using Social Media to Predict and Track Disease Outbreaks
Schmidt, C. W. (2011) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.120-a30 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Centrality Measures in NetworksPreprint
Bloch, F., Jackson, M. O., & Tebaldi, P. (2016) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2749124 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Maiya, A. S., & Berger-Wolf, T. Y. (2011) · ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD) · doi:10.1145/2020408.2020431 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Nebeker, C., Harlow, J., Giacinto, R. E., Linares-Orozco, R., Bloss, C. S., & Weibel, N. (2017) · AJOB Empirical Bioethics · doi:10.1080/23294515.2017.1403980 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Causal Inference for Social Network Data
Ogburn, E., Sofrygin, O., Díaz, I., & van der Laan, M. V. (2017) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.2022.2131557 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
Can Network Theory-based Targeting Increase Technology Adoption?
Beaman, L., BenYishay, A., Magruder, J., & Mobarak, A. M. (2018) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w24912 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Fernández-Luque, L., & Imran, M. (2018) · International Journal of Medical Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2018.01.015 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Beyond collective intelligence: Collective adaptation
Galesic, M., Barkoczi, D., Berdahl, A., Biro, D., Carbone, G., Giannoccaro, I., Goldstone, R. L., González, C., Kandler, A., Kao, A. B., et al. (2022) · Journal of the Royal Society Interface · doi:10.1098/rsif.2022.0736 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Shakya, H. B., Stafford, D., Hughes, D., Keegan, T., Negron, R., Broome, J., McKnight, M., Nicoll, L., Nelson, J., Iriarte, E., et al. (2017) · BMJ Open · doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2016-012996 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Friendship Paradox and Systematic Biases in Perceptions and Social Norms
Jackson, M. O. (2016) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/701031 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Human social sensing is an untapped resource for computational social science
Galešić, M., de Bruin, W. B., Dalege, J., Feld, S. L., Kreuter, F., Olsson, H., Prelec, D., Stein, D. L., & van der Does, T. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03649-2 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Eom, Y.-H., & Jo, H.-H. (2015) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep09752 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Using Friends as Sensors to Detect Global-Scale Contagious Outbreaks
García–Herranz, M., Moro, E., Cebrián, M., Christakis, N. A., & Fowler, J. H. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0092413 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Self-citationGeneralized friendship paradox in complex networks: The case of scientific collaboration
Eom, Y.-H., & Jo, H.-H. (2014) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep04603 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Friendship Paradox Redux: Your Friends Are More Interesting Than You
Hodas, N. O., Kooti, F., & Lerman, K. (2021) · Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media · doi:10.1609/icwsm.v7i1.14440 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Motter, A. E. (2015) · Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science · doi:10.1063/1.4931570 · Cited by 94 · see citing works
From social data mining to forecasting socio-economic crises
Helbing, D., & Balietti, S. (2011) · The European Physical Journal Special Topics · doi:10.1140/epjst/e2011-01401-8 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Detecting Influential Spreaders in Complex, Dynamic Networks
Basaras, P., Katsaros, D., & Tassiulas, L. (2013) · Computer · doi:10.1109/mc.2013.75 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Haim, D. A. (2016) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343316630938 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Towards multiscale modeling of influenza infection
Murillo, L. N., Murillo, M. S., & Perelson, A. S. (2013) · Journal of Theoretical Biology · doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.03.024 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Information cascades in complex networks
Jalili, M., & Perc, M. (2017) · Journal of Complex Networks · doi:10.1093/comnet/cnx019 · Cited by 248 · see citing works
Behavioral Immune Trade-Offs: Interpersonal Value Relaxes Social Pathogen Avoidance
Tybur, J. M., Lieberman, D., Fan, L., Kupfer, T. R., & de Vries, R. E. (2020) · Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/0956797620960011 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
How Should Health Data Be Used?
KAPLAN, B. (2014) · Cambridge Quarterly of Healthcare Ethics · doi:10.1017/s0963180115000614 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Using friends as sensors to detect planetary-scale contagious outbreaks
Cebrián, M. (2012) · doi:10.1145/2390034.2390041 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Epidemiologically Optimal Static Networks from Temporal Network Data
Holme, P. (2013) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003142 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Transmission of Vaccination Attitudes and Uptake Based on Social Contagion Theory: A Scoping Review
Konstantinou, P., Georgiou, K., Kumar, N., Kyprianidou, M., Nicolaides, C., Karekla, M., & Kassianos, A. P. (2021) · Vaccines · doi:10.3390/vaccines9060607 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Momeni, N., & Rabbat, M. (2016) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0143633 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Social network predictors of latrine ownership
Shakya, H. B., Christakis, N. A., & Fowler, J. H. (2014) · Social Science & Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2014.03.009 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Self-citationUsing Social and Behavioural Science to Support COVID-19 Pandemic ResponsePreprint
Bavel, J. J. V., D, K. B. A., Boggio, P. S., Capraro, V., Cichocka, A. K., Cikara, M., Crockett, M. J., Crum, A. J., Douglas, K. M., Druckman, J. N., et al. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4178356 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Self-citationMisinformation in Online Social Networks
Zhang, H., Alim, M. A., Li, X. R., Thai, M. T., & Nguyen, H. P. N. (2016) · ACM Transactions on Information Systems · doi:10.1145/2885494 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Sensing, Understanding, and Shaping Social Behavior
Shmueli, E., Singh, V. K., Lepri, B., & Pentland, A. (2014) · IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems · doi:10.1109/tcss.2014.2307438 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Erratic Flu Vaccination Emerges from Short-Sighted Behavior in Contact Networks
Cornforth, D. M., Reluga, T. C., Shim, E., Bauch, C. T., Galvani, A. P., & Ancel, L. W. (2011) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1001062 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Dueling biological and social contagions
Fu, F., Christakis, N. A., & Fowler, J. H. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep43634 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Self-citationUsing Networks to Combine “Big Data” and Traditional Surveillance to Improve Influenza Predictions
Davidson, M. W., Haim, D. A., & Radin, J. M. (2015) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep08154 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Mining Social Media Data for Biomedical Signals and Health-Related Behavior
Correia, R. B., Wood, I. B., Bollen, J., & Rocha, L. M. (2020) · Annual Review of Biomedical Data Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-biodatasci-030320-040844 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
How People Interact in Evolving Online Affiliation Networks
Gallos, L. K., Diego Rybski, A., Liljeros, F., Havlin, S., & Makse, H. A. (2012) · Physical Review X · doi:10.1103/physrevx.2.031014 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Disease Surveillance on Complex Social Networks
Herrera, J. L., Srinivasan, R., Brownstein, J. S., Galvani, A. P., & Ancel, L. W. (2016) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004928 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Cornwell, B. T., & Schafer, M. H. (2015) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-417235-7.00009-3 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Syndromic surveillance of Flu on Twitter using weakly supervised temporal topic models
Chen, L., Hossain, K. S. M. T., Butler, P., Ramakrishnan, N., & Prakash, B. A. (2015) · Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery · doi:10.1007/s10618-015-0434-x · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Association between tuberculosis in men and social network structure in Kampala, Uganda
Miller, P. B., Zalwango, S. K., Galiwango, R. M., Kakaire, R., Sekandi, J. N., Steinbaum, L., Drake, J. M., Whalen, C. C., & Kiwanuka, N. (2021) · BMC Infectious Diseases · doi:10.1186/s12879-021-06475-z · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Flu Gone Viral: Syndromic Surveillance of Flu on Twitter Using Temporal Topic Models
Chen, L., Hossain, K. S. M. T., Butler, P., Ramakrishnan, N., & Prakash, B. A. (2014) · Proceedings · doi:10.1109/icdm.2014.137 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Obadimu, A., Khaund, T., Mead, E. L., Marcoux, T., & Agarwal, N. (2021) · Information Processing & Management · doi:10.1016/j.ipm.2021.102660 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Mobile crowd sensing of human-like intelligence using social sensors: A survey
Xu, Z., Mei, L., Choo, K. R., Lv, Z., Hu, C., Luo, X., & Liu, Y. (2017) · Neurocomputing · doi:10.1016/j.neucom.2017.01.127 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Fast influencers in complex networks
Zhou, F., Lü, L., & Mariani, M. S. (2019) · Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation · doi:10.1016/j.cnsns.2019.01.032 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Contact tracing – Old models and new challenges
Müller, J., & Kretzschmar, M. (2020) · Infectious Disease Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.idm.2020.12.005 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Using global diversity and local topology features to identify influential network spreaders
Fu, Y.-H., Huang, C.-Y., & Sun, C. (2015) · Physica A Statistical Mechanics and its Applications · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.03.042 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
A change of perspective in network centrality
Sciarra, C., Chiarotti, G., Laio, F., & Ridolfi, L. (2018) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-018-33336-8 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Vaccines, contagion, and social networks
Ogburn, E. L., & VanderWeele, T. J. (2017) · The Annals of Applied Statistics · doi:10.1214/17-aoas1023 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Polio vaccine hesitancy in the networks and neighborhoods of Malegaon, India.
Onnela, J., Landon, B. E., Kahn, A.-L., Ahmed, D., Verma, H., O'Malley, A., Bahl, S., Sutter, R., & Christakis, N. A. (2016) · Social Science & Medicine (1967) · doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.01.024 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Self-citationCounteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks
Pei, S., & Shaman, J. L. (2017) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01033-1 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Forecasting Influenza Levels Using Real-Time Social Media Streams
Lee, K., Agrawal, A., & Choudhary, A. (2017) · IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI) · doi:10.1109/ichi.2017.68 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Efficient surveillance for healthcare-associated infections spreading between hospitals
Ciccolini, M., Donker, T., Grundmann, H., Bonten, M. J. M., & Woolhouse, M. E. J. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1308062111 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
The Coming of a Networked Criminology
Papachristos, A. (2017) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9780203785997-5 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
Fadda, M., Allam, A., & Schulz, P. J. (2015) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.11.007 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Three faces of node importance in network epidemiology: Exact results for small graphs
Holme, P. (2017) · Physical review. E · doi:10.1103/physreve.96.062305 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Proactive Defense for Evolving Cyber Threats
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), A., Colbaugh, R., (NNSA), U. N. N. S. A., & Glass, K. (2012) · doi:10.2172/1059470 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Shah, N. S., Iveniuk, J., Muth, S. Q., Michaels, S., Jose, J., Laumann, E. O., & Schneider, J. A. (2013) · AIDS and Behavior · doi:10.1007/s10461-013-0677-8 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Induction of social contagion for diverse outcomes in structured experiments in isolated villages
Airoldi, E. M., & Christakis, N. A. (2024) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.adi5147 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Self-citationBam, K., Haseen, F., Rajendra Kumar, B. C., Newman, M. S., Chaudhary, A. H., Thapa, R., & Bhuiya, I. (2015) · American journal of public health research · doi:10.12691/ajphr-3-2-1 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Reducing gunshot victimization in high-risk social networks through direct and spillover effects
Wood, G., & Papachristos, A. (2019) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-019-0688-1 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
The diffusion of a new method of suicide: charcoal-burning suicide in Hong Kong and Taiwan
Chen, Y., YIP, P. S. F., Lee, C. K., Gunnell, D., & Wu, K. C. (2014) · Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology · doi:10.1007/s00127-014-0910-4 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Mining Social Media and Web Searches for Disease Detection
Yang, Y. T., Horneffer, M., & DiLisio, N. (2013) · Journal of Public Health Research · doi:10.4081/jphr.2013.e4 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Social network analysis in epidemiology: Current trends and perspectives
Stattner, E., & Vidot, N. (2011) · International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Science (RCIS) · doi:10.1109/rcis.2011.6006866 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Analyzing Temporal Networks in Social Media
Holme, P. (2014) · Proceedings of the IEEE · doi:10.1109/jproc.2014.2361326 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Shakya, H. B., Hughes, D. A., Stafford, D., Christakis, N. A., Fowler, J. H., & Silverman, J. G. (2016) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-016-2893-4 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Christakis, N. A., & Fowler, J. H.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- Corresponding author
- Christakis, Nicholas A.
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2010-09-15
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- e12948
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC2939797
- OpenAlex
- W2140095656
- Cited by
- 535
- References
- 44
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 33 · 2021: 49 · 2020: 38 · 2019: 31 · 2018: 40 · 2017: 50 · 2016: 40 · 2015: 48 · 2014: 44 · 2013: 36 · 2012: 46
- FWCI
- 24.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Funders
- Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
- McKnight Foundation
- Harvard University
- National Institute on Aging (P01AG031093)
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences (P41GM103504)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Data-Driven Disease Surveillance
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Statistical and Nonlinear Physics › Complex Network Analysis Techniques
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
- Keywords
- influenza outbreak, 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Harvard College, network centrality, lead time, disease surveillance
- MeSH terms
- Disease Outbreaks, Female, Humans, Influenza, Human, Male, Social Support, Early Diagnosis, Young Adult, Epidemics
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review