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Predicting the impact of the 2011 conflict in Libya on population mental health: PTSD and depression prevalence and mental health service requirements

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Charlson, Fiona J., Steel, Zachary, Degenhardt, Louisa, Chey, Tien, Silove, Derrick, Marnane, Claire, Whiteford, Harvey A.·2012·PLoS ONE
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0040593PMC PMC3396632
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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Mental disorders are likely to be elevated in the Libyan population during the post-conflict period. We estimated cases of severe PTSD and depression and related health service requirements using modelling from existing epidemiological data and current recommended mental health service targets in low and middle income countries (LMIC's). METHODS: Post-conflict prevalence estimates were derived from models based on a previously conducted systematic review and meta-regression analysis of mental health among populations living in conflict. Political terror ratings and intensity of exposure to traumatic events were used in predictive models. Prevalence of severe cases was applied to chosen populations along with uncertainty ranges. Six populations deemed to be affected by the conflict were chosen for modelling: Misrata (population of 444,812), Benghazi (pop. 674,094), Zintan (pop. 40,000), displaced people within Tripoli/Zlitan (pop. 49,000), displaced people within Misrata (pop. 25,000) and Ras Jdir camps (pop. 3,700). Proposed targets for service coverage, resource utilisation and full-time equivalent staffing for management of severe cases of major depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are based on a published model for LMIC's. FINDINGS: Severe PTSD prevalence in populations exposed to a high level of political terror and traumatic events was estimated at 12.4% (95%CI 8.5-16.7) and was 19.8% (95%CI 14.0-26.3) for severe depression. Across all six populations (total population 1,236,600), the conflict could be associated with 123,200 (71,600-182,400) cases of severe PTSD and 228,100 (134,000-344,200) cases of severe depression; 50% of PTSD cases were estimated to co-occur with severe depression. Based upon service coverage targets, approximately 154 full-time equivalent staff would be required to respond to these cases sufficiently which is substantially below the current level of resource estimates for these regions. DISCUSSION: This is the first attempt to predict the mental health burden and consequent service response needs of such a conflict, and is crucially timed for Libya.

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  1. [9]World Health Organization 2008 The global burden of disease: 2004 update. Geneva: WHO Press
  2. [15]World Health Organization 2008 mhGAP Mental Health Gap Action Programme: Scaling up care for mental, neurological, and substance use disorders. Available: http://www.who.int/mental_health/mhgap_final_english.pdf. Accessed 2011 Sep 15. 26290926

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Authors
Charlson, F. J., Steel, Z., Degenhardt, L., Chey, T., Silove, D., Marnane, C., & Whiteford, H. A.
Affiliations
  • The University of Queensland (AU)
  • UNSW Sydney (AU)
  • The University of Melbourne (AU)
Corresponding author
Whiteford, Harvey A.
ORCID
Venue
PLoS ONE
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published
2012-07-13
Volume
7
Issue
7
Pages
e40593
ISSN
1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0040593
PMC
PMC3396632
OpenAlex
W2054154350
Cited by
62
References
42
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 6 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 2 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 6 · 2014: 3 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 1
FWCI
6.82
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Health and Conflict Studies
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Research
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Mental Health Treatment and Access
Keywords
post-conflict mental health, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, political terror, trauma exposure, displaced persons
MeSH terms
Depression, Humans, Libya, Mental Health, Mental Health Services, Public Health, Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic, Warfare, Models, Statistical, Prevalence

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