Long-Term Data Reveal a Population Decline of the Tropical Lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a Negative Affect of El Nino Years on Population Growth Rate
Open accessAbstract
Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years' southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population's future persistence.
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There was a significant positive linear regression of the proportion of days per year when temperature equaled or exceeded 29 °C on MnMaxT at El Verde.
“However, there was a significant positive linear regression of proportion of days per year when the temperature equaled or exceeded 29 °C on MnMaxT at El Verde (SI Appendix, Fig. S8K), suggesting that our measure reflects significant exposure to extremes rather than ephemeral spikes in temperature (6, 20).”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [20]
Anolis populations in other tropical forests have declined in parallel with anoles at Luquillo.
“Long-term abundance data taken by Pounds et al. (63), Whitfield et al. (4), and Stapley et al. (20) indicate that Anolis populations in other tropical forests have declined in parallel with anoles at Luquillo.”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [20]
Stapley et al. reached a similar conclusion concerning the effects of ENSO on Anolis populations in Panama.
“Stapley et al. (20) reached a similar conclusion concerning the effects of ENSO on Anolis populations in Panama.”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [20]
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Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web
Lister, B. C., & Garcia, A. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1722477115 · Cited by 730 · see citing works
- Authors
- Stapley, J., Garcia, M., & Andrews, R. M.
- Affiliations
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PA)
- Virginia Tech (US)
- Corresponding author
- Stapley, Jessica
- Venue
- PLOS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2015-02-11
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- e0115450
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4325001
- OpenAlex
- W2098202869
- Cited by
- 30
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 3 · 2022: 7 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 1.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- public-domain
- creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (vor)
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Smithsonian Digital Repository (Smithsonian Institution) (submittedVersion)
- VTechWorks (Virginia Tech) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (public-domain)
- Funders
- Smithsonian Institution
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Amphibian and Reptile Biology
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Physiological and biochemical adaptations
- Keywords
- tropical lizards, population decline (ecology), population growth rate, El Niño, La Niña, Southern Oscillation Index, climate change impacts, recruitment (biology), rainfall, minimum temperature, body temperature, long-term population dynamics, Barro Colorado Island
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Lizards, Population Density, Time Factors, Tropical Climate, Models, Statistical, Biodiversity, El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Spatio-Temporal Analysis
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