Cited by 661Climate Change Communication and PerceptionClimate Change Policy and EconomicsRisk Perception and Management

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The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence

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van der Linden, Sander L., Leiserowitz, Anthony A., Feinberg, Geoffrey D., Maibach, Edward W.·2015·PLOS ONE

DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0118489PMC PMC4340922

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Abstract

There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a "gateway belief model" (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.

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Fig 1 The Gateway Belief Model (GBM).CC BY · PubMed Central

Fig 2 Visual depiction of the Gateway Belief Model (GBM) results.CC BY · PubMed Central

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“Meanwhile, a growing number of studies have shown that quantifying and communicating the scientific consensus on contested issues such as vaccine safety and climate change can help lower public misperceptions and uncertainty (Myers et al 2015, van der Linden et al 2015, van der Linden et al 2015).”
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Authors: van der Linden, S. L., Leiserowitz, A. A., Feinberg, G. D., & Maibach, E. W.
Affiliations: Yale University (US)
George Mason University (US)
ORCID: Leiserowitz, Anthony A.
Maibach, Edward W.
Venue: PLOS ONE
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published: 2015-02-25
Volume: 10
Issue: 2
Pages: e0118489
ISSN: 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0118489
PMC: PMC4340922
OpenAlex: W2139841269
Cited by: 661
References: 28
Citations by year: 2026: 53 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 51 · 2023: 47 · 2022: 88 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 78 · 2019: 65 · 2018: 57 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 37 · 2015: 17
FWCI: 168.59
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
Locations: PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders: American Association for the Advancement of Science
Rockefeller Family Fund
Topics: Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
Keywords: scientific consensus, climate change beliefs, public perception of science, anthropogenic climate change, climate policy support
MeSH terms: Humans, Models, Theoretical, Consensus, Climate Change

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The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence

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