Future of the human climate niche
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Significance: We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today.
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Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth's surface mainly in the Sahara.
“Worst-case scenario models that assume business-as-usual approaches to climate change predict that nearly one-third of the global population will live in extremely hot (uninhabitable) climates, currently found in less than 1% of the earth’s surface mainly in the Sahara.”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [25]
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA 2019 model suggests that business-as-usual approaches to climate mitigation and population growth may expose one in three humans in this belt to high temperatures currently found only on 0.8% of the earth's surface.
“A 2019 model suggests that business-as-usual approaches to climate mitigation and population growth may expose one in three humans in this belt to high temperatures currently found only on 0.8% of the earth’s surface [25].”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [25]
The Results (Projected Change) project that, under business-as-usual climate and population scenarios and absent migration, 3.5 billion people would experience mean annual temperatures of at least 29 °C by 2070. They say those temperatures currently occur on 0.8% of global land surface—not 0.8% of Earth’s entire surface—and give no one-in-three estimate specifically for “this belt”; the roughly 30% figure elsewhere in Results refers to the projected global population. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredMaximum temperatures during the dry season follow a similar trend, rising across most of the biome, exposing the forest and local peoples to potentially unbearable heat.
“Maximum temperatures during the dry season follow a similar trend, rising across most of the biome (Extended Data Fig. 2), exposing the forest34 and local peoples35 to potentially unbearable heat.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [35]
In Results > Projected Change (page not provided), the paper projects that billions of people could be exposed to extremely hot mean annual temperatures. This supports the concern for people, but it does not establish that dry-season maximum temperatures across the cited biome will expose local peoples to potentially unbearable heat. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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- Authors
- Xu, C., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., Svenning, J.-C., & Scheffer, M.
- Affiliations
- Nanjing University (CN)
- Crow Canyon Archaeological Center (US)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Aarhus University (DK)
- Santa Fe Institute (US)
- Corresponding author
- Xu, Chi
- Scheffer, Marten
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2020-05-04
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 21
- Pages
- 11350-11355
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC7260949
- OpenAlex
- W3021189791
- Cited by
- 862
- References
- 77
- Citations by year
- 2026: 62 · 2025: 102 · 2024: 181 · 2023: 143 · 2022: 160 · 2021: 150 · 2020: 64
- FWCI
- 51.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- national natural s (31770512)
- Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2018-046)
- National Science Foundation (SMA-1637171)
- Villum Fonden (16549)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- mean annual temperature, climate envelope, thermal adaptation, migration, in situ adaptation, agricultural production, economic output, Sahara, human development, climate change mitigation
- MeSH terms
- Africa, Northern, Agriculture, Animals, Humans, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Temperature, Data Mining, Climate Change, Livestock, Human Migration
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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