The Goal-Gradient Hypothesis Resurrected: Purchase Acceleration, Illusionary Goal Progress, and Customer Retention

In the paper

“purchase and effort rates reset (to a lower level) after the first reward is earned and then reaccelerate toward the second reward goal.”

In the paper

“customers who receive a 12-stamp coffee card with 2 preexisting 'bonus' stamps complete the 10 required purchases faster than customers who receive a 'regular' 10-stamp card”

• Also stated in: § The Goal-Gradient Hypothesis Resurrected: Purchase Acceleration, Illusionary Goal Progress, and Customer Retention · p. 2 · plain

  “customers who receive a 12-stamp coffee card with two preexisting 'bonus' stamps complete the ten required purchases faster than customers who receive a 'regular' 10-stamp card.”

In the paper

“Internet users who rate songs in return for reward certificates visit the rating Web site more often, rate more songs per visit, and persist longer in the rating effort as they approach the reward goal”

In the paper

“Internet users who rate songs in return for reward certificates visit the rating Web site more often, rate more songs per visit, and persist longer in the rating effort as they approach the reward goal”

In the paper

“the illusion of progress toward the goal induces purchase acceleration”

• Also stated in: § The Goal-Gradient Hypothesis Resurrected: Purchase Acceleration, Illusionary Goal Progress, and Customer Retention · p. 2 · plain

  “The illusion of progress toward the goal induces purchase acceleration.”

In the paper

“Internet users who rate songs in return for reward certificates visit the rating Web site more often, rate more songs per visit, and persist longer in the rating effort as they approach the reward goal”

In the paper

“Finally, we calibrated the GDM on the subsample of completed transparent cards, and again, we found deceleration ( b 1 = .15, p < .05; b 2 = .05, p > .1).”

In the paper

“the negative quadratic parameter b 2 ( p < .01)”

In the paper

“The first two interpurchase times on the second card were slower than the last two interpurchase times on the first card ( p < .01).”

In the paper

“Segments 3 and 4 (7% and 6%, respectively) both have a linear goal-distance parameter near zero.”

In the paper

“Segment 2 (29%) has the same linear goal-distance parameter as the largest segment, but the coefficient does not reach statistical significance ( p = .13) because of the smaller segment size.”

In the paper

“Again, all the significant coefficients for the control variables had the same sign and the same interpretation as the model of redeemed cards.”

In the paper

“The 20% (.7 day) decrease in average interpurchase times from the first to the last stamp on the card”

In the paper

“Buyback cards were in circulation for a period of time that was longer than that of redeemed cards (X ⎯ = 65 days versus X ⎯ = 25 days; t = 7.6, p < .01)”

In the paper

“Consistent with H 2 and the results of the field experiment, respondents in the experimental versus control condition estimated completing the eight required purchases in fewer weeks (X ⎯ = 11 versus X ⎯ = 16 weeks; t = 1.6, p < .1; medians = 8 versus 12 weeks; χ 2 = 6.5, p < .05 [nonparametric median test]).”

In the paper

“Segment 1, the largest segment (58%), has significant linear and quadratic goal-distance parameters; this pattern of acceleration is similar to that which we obtained previously with the homogeneous goal-distance parameters.”

In the paper

“On average, customers in the control condition completed the ten required purchases (for the 10-stamp card) in 15.6 days.”

In the paper

“we found significant unobserved heterogeneity in the hazard rate parameters”

In the paper

“A nested likelihood ratio test indicated that the GDM provided an improvement in fit over a 'naive' model in which β 1 and β 2 were restricted to zero ( χ 2 = 18.8, d.f. = 2, p < .01).”

In the paper

“All the significant coefficients for the control variables have the same sign and the same interpretation as in the model of redeemed cards.”

In the paper

“We found an even stronger deceleration effect ( b 1 = .4, p < .01; b 2 = -.1, p > .1) when we included all observed days up to the collection of the transparent card (i.e., including days after the last purchase on incomplete transparent cards).”

In the paper

“The linear goal-distance parameter b 1 was less than zero ( p < .01).”

In the paper

“Moreover, when we modeled all observed days up to the buyback of the incomplete card (i.e., including days after the last purchase on the card), we found an increasing deceleration effect ( b 1 = .3 and b 2 = -.1, respectively; p s < .01).”

In the paper

“With this empirical application, we were able not only to replicate the finding of goal-motivated acceleration in visit rates (in the context of Web site rather than café visits) but also to extend the goal-gradient effect to the domain of quantity decisions and effort persistence.”

In the paper

“Importantly, in both incentive systems, we observed the phenomenon of postreward resetting, whereby customers who accelerated toward their first reward exhibited a slowdown in their efforts when they began work (and subsequently accelerated) toward their second reward.”

In the paper

“we found that completed certificates exhibited a significantly stronger quantity goal gradient than did incomplete certificates ( b INT = -8.5, p < .01).”

In the paper

“In particular, members who accelerated more strongly toward their first reward were more likely to earn a second reward.”

In the paper

“we found no effect on the likelihood of joining the frequent-diner program (X ⎯ = 5.9 and X ⎯ = 5.8 in the experimental and control condition, respectively; t = .1, not significant [n.s.]).”

In the paper

“These members demonstrated strong goal gradients (i.e., greater rating quantities as a function of lower d t ) on both of their earned certificates ( b 1 = -11.6 and -9.0 for the first and second certificate, respectively; p s < .01).”

In the paper

“The goal-gradient effect also generalized to a very different incentive system, in which shorter goal distance led members to visit a song-rating Web site more frequently, rate more songs during each visit, and persist longer in the rating effort.”

In the paper

“The results indicate that customers who participated in the RP (as opposed to customers who did not) were more likely to smile when buying coffee (3.8 versus 3.4 on a five-point scale; p < .05), chat for a few minutes with café employees (26% versus 7%; p < .05), say 'thank you' (95% versus 87%; n.s.), and leave a tip (21% versus 3%; p < .01).”

In the paper

“The effect of acceleration toward the first reward on the time to reengage in the program was in the hypothesized direction ( b = -2.6, Wald χ 2 = 13.8; p < .01).”

In the paper

“We found significantly stronger linear acceleration for complete than for incomplete certificates ( b INT = -.5; Wald χ 2 = 16.2, p < .01).”

In the paper

“The results indicate that customers who participated in the RP (as opposed to customers who did not) were more likely to smile when buying coffee (3.8 versus 3.4 on a five-point scale; p < .05), chat for a few minutes with café employees (26% versus 7%; p < .05), say 'thank you' (95% versus 87%; n.s.), and leave a tip (21% versus 3%; p < .01).”

In the paper

“That is, members who accelerated more strongly toward their first reward were faster to begin working toward their second reward (when we hold constant the base hazard rate, or the average interpurchase time, on the first card).”

In the paper

“With this empirical application, we were able not only to replicate the finding of goal-motivated acceleration in visit rates (in the context of Web site rather than café visits) but also to extend the goal-gradient effect to the domain of quantity decisions and effort persistence.”

In the paper

“The goal-gradient effect also generalized to a very different incentive system, in which shorter goal distance led members to visit a song-rating Web site more frequently, rate more songs during each visit, and persist longer in the rating effort.”

In the paper

“One test of this hypothesis involved a field experiment, in which customers who received a 12-stamp card with two preexisting bonus stamps completed the ten required coffee purchases faster than customers who received a regular 10-stamp card.”

In the paper

“Consistent with the analysis of the incomplete cards in the café RP, we found deceleration ( b 1 = .7, p < .1; b 2 = .01, p > .9).”

In the paper

“We replicated these effects in the context of the Jaboom music-rating program.”

In the paper

“Consistent with the goal-gradient hypothesis, as members approached the 51-song goal, they rated more songs in later visits.”

In the paper

“There was also a quadratic effect ( p < .01) that indicated a diminishing rate of acceleration.”

In the paper

“Extending the GDM . Using a common measure of goal distance (d t ) and logit, hazard rate, and Tobit frameworks, the GDM captured three forms of goal gradients: increased persistence, rate, and quantity of effort closer to the reward threshold.”

In the paper

“With this empirical application, we were able not only to replicate the finding of goal-motivated acceleration in visit rates (in the context of Web site rather than café visits) but also to extend the goal-gradient effect to the domain of quantity decisions and effort persistence.”

In the paper

“Figure 7 illustrates these results and shows that a majority (17% or 80/473) of all visit terminations occurred at d itq = 1.0.”

In the paper

“Relatedly, failure to persist in the effort stream and fulfill the requirements was associated with weaker acceleration and even deceleration.”

In the paper

“In addition, we found a negative effect of the number of certificates already earned during the same visit ( p < .01), consistent with satiation or fatigue.”

In the paper

“Self-selection is also inconsistent with the analysis of participants' entire sequence of ratings (including ratings that did not eventually lead to reward), which revealed significant goal gradients.”

In the paper

“We found significant goal gradients even after we accounted for unobserved heterogeneity and statistically controlled for time trends in visit and song-rating frequencies.”

In the paper

“Importantly, there was no difference in feeling valence between experimental and control respondents (t = .2, n.s.).”

In the paper

“these members rated an average of 24 songs on the last visit of their first certificate compared with 16 songs on the first visit of their second certificate (pairwise t = 2.3, p < .05).”

In the paper

“Consistent with the goal-gradient hypothesis, we found a negative linear goal-distance parameter ( p < .01; see Table 4) that indicated that members rated more songs per visit when they were closer to the goal.”

In the paper

“The results indicate that customers who participated in the RP (as opposed to customers who did not) were more likely to smile when buying coffee (3.8 versus 3.4 on a five-point scale; p < .05), chat for a few minutes with café employees (26% versus 7%; p < .05), say 'thank you' (95% versus 87%; n.s.), and leave a tip (21% versus 3%; p < .01).”

In the paper

“The effect of the first-card individual-level acceleration estimate for the member was in the hypothesized direction ( b = -.5, Wald χ 2 = 5.3; p < .05).”

In the paper

“The results indicate that customers who participated in the RP (as opposed to customers who did not) were more likely to smile when buying coffee (3.8 versus 3.4 on a five-point scale; p < .05), chat for a few minutes with café employees (26% versus 7%; p < .05), say 'thank you' (95% versus 87%; n.s.), and leave a tip (21% versus 3%; p < .01).”

In the paper

“We found that members of a café RP accelerated their coffee purchases as they progressed toward earning a free coffee.”

In the paper

“The goal-gradient effect also generalized to a very different incentive system, in which shorter goal distance led members to visit a song-rating Web site more frequently, rate more songs during each visit, and persist longer in the rating effort.”

In the paper

“Consistent with Hull's (1934) findings with rats and our results of the café RP, the rate of acceleration diminished, as indicated by the negative quadratic goal-distance parameter ( p < .01).”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hull's (1934) source

In the paper

“Not only do customers accelerate toward rewards (in terms of timing, quantity, and persistence of effort), but their acceleration also predicts loyalty and future engagement with similar goals.”

In the paper

“As we predicted, respondents in the near-reward condition were more likely than those in the distant-reward condition to accept the promotional offer (56% versus 38%, χ 2 = 10.7; p < .001).”

In the paper

“Not only do customers accelerate toward rewards (in terms of timing, quantity, and persistence of effort), but their acceleration also predicts loyalty and future engagement with similar goals.”

In the paper

“we observe goalmotivated acceleration after accounting for weekly sales and other time-varying covariates”

In the paper

“we find a majority of accelerators after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in both the hazard rate and the tendency to accelerate.”

In the paper

“Process experiments show that the illusionary goal progress effect cannot be explained by rival accounts, such as sunk cost.”

In the paper

“using statistical and experimental controls, the authors rule out alternative explanations for the observed goal gradients”

In the paper

“The observed purchase and effort acceleration cannot be explained by habituation, expiration concerns, other time-trend effects, or heterogeneity bias.”

In the paper

“the experimental group started with a lower proportion of original distance remaining to the goal than did the control group (i.e., d t +2 = .83 and d t = 1.0, respectively).”

In the paper

“Thus, whereas the control and the experimental groups faced identical effort requirements (i.e., r - n t = eight pizza meals)”

In the paper

“As Heilizer (1977) details, it is difficult to interpret noninstrumental behaviors and physiological measurements as evidence supporting (or refuting) the goal-gradient hypothesis.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Heilizer 1977 source

In the paper

“Thus, we posit that, all else being equal, goal motivation is influenced by the perceived rather than by the real progress toward the goal.”

In the paper

“The 20% (.7 day) decrease in average interpurchase times from the first to the last stamp on the card implies that in a typical month, on average, members purchased two more coffees than they would have without an RP in order to earn one free coffee.”

In the paper

“This result supports H 1 and demonstrates that members accelerated their coffee purchases as they got closer to earning a free coffee.”

• Also stated in: § Alternative Explanations · p. 9 · hedged

  “Consistent with the goal-gradient hypothesis (H 1 ), the findings from the café RP indicate that customers accelerated their purchases as a function of smaller goal distance.”

In the paper

“Our modeling approach also enables us to account for unobserved heterogeneity (i.e., individual differences in base purchase rates and acceleration tendencies).”

In the paper

“The interpurchase times on the transparent cards steadily increased as customers neared the nonreinforced (unrewarded) completion of the card.”

In the paper

“Consistent with H 2 , the results indicate that illusionary goal progress led to faster completion of the reward requirement.”

In the paper

“The analysis of the incomplete (buyback) cards revealed that defectors were less likely to exhibit a goal gradient than were members who redeemed at least one card.”

In the paper

“which suggests that without our intervention, such buyback cards would have resulted in 'breakage' (i.e., nonredeemed stamps or cards).”

In the paper

“This pattern suggests that, unlike redeemers, buyback customers do not accelerate their purchases as a function of progress toward the reward.”

In the paper

“Overall, the analysis of the transparent cards supports the notion that the purchase acceleration we found in the main data set was driven by goal motivation rather than by timetrend effects or habituation.”

In the paper

“All the results are replicated when we exclude from the analyses the subsequent cards of members who redeemed more than one card.”

In the paper

“Thus, although the two groups faced identical effort requirements when joining the program (i.e., r n t = accumulating 10 coffee purchases)”

In the paper

“We ruled out several alternative explanations for the observed purchase acceleration using an experimental control (i.e., the transparent cards) and statistical controls.”

In the paper

“In summary, prior theorization about human motivation, affect, and cognition supports the relevance of the goal-gradient hypothesis for the human psychology of rewards.”

In the paper

“Consistent with the goalgradient curve in Figure 3, the negative quadratic parameter b 2 ( p < .01) implies a diminishing rate of acceleration.”

In the paper

“when we ran the models without latent-class segmentation, all of the results still held.”

In the paper

“The limited research conducted with humans used mostly physiological measurements (e.g., galvanic skin response, heart rate, arm pressure) that were noninstrumental for goal achievement.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Heilizer 1977 source

In the paper

“Although such single-visit certificates arguably signify strong goal motivation, they must be excluded from the analyses of intervisit times because they do not permit testing for acceleration (or deceleration).”

In the paper

“In addition, we found a negative effect of the number of certificates already earned during the same visit ( p < .01), consistent with satiation or fatigue.”

In the paper

“The finding of postreward resetting is a key corollary of the goalgradient hypothesis; it demonstrates that effort expenditure is a function of goal distance and rules out learning and other time-trend effects as well as a self-selection (or survivor) rival account.”

In the paper

“Given the previously reported findings of postreward resetting, our results cannot be explained as a simple continuation of the increased purchase rates of accelerators.”

In the paper

“These results are inconsistent with the sunk-cost alternative explanation.”

In the paper

“Because the sunkcost respondents felt worse about losing their card, we can rule out the possibility that a measurement problem gave rise to the similarity in (good) feelings between the experimental and the control respondents.”

In the paper

“It is noteworthy that the goal-gradient and illusionary goal progress effects can be captured by a mathematically equivalent GDM, in which effort depends on the proportion of original goal distance already accomplished (i.e., d t = n t /r).”

In the paper

“we deliberately used a manipulation of illusionary goal progress that we did not expect to affect respondents' idiosyncratic fit with the RP.”

In the paper

“it is inconsistent with the rational accounts of purchase acceleration. That is, illusionary goal progress does not reduce the absolute distance to or the delay of the reward and therefore should have no effect according to the cost-benefit and time-discounting explanations.”

In the paper

“For example, the results of the café RP imply that to earn one free coffee, customers bought two more coffees than they would have otherwise.”

In the paper

“Although these results should be interpreted with caution because customers self-select into the RP, they suggest that goal striving is intrinsically motivating beyond extrinsic rewards.”

In the paper

“This approach enables us to capture the underlying motivation to rate songs, while taking into account the constraint of 51 songs per certificate.”

In the paper

“The effect of illusionary goal progress provides direct support for our proposition that psychological goal distance (d t ) is a key determinant of achievement motivation and willingness to invest effort.”

In the paper

“The finding of postreward resetting is a key corollary of the goalgradient hypothesis; it demonstrates that effort expenditure is a function of goal distance and rules out learning and other time-trend effects as well as a self-selection (or survivor) rival account.”

In the paper

“We posited that individual differences in the goal gradient capture variations in the motivation to earn free rewards.”

In the paper

“because applying a regression to censored data leads to biased parameter estimates (Breen 1996)”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Breen 1996

In the paper

“The finding of postreward resetting is a key corollary of the goalgradient hypothesis; it demonstrates that effort expenditure is a function of goal distance and rules out learning and other time-trend effects as well as a self-selection (or survivor) rival account.”

In the paper

“This finding suggests that RP members who exhibit enhanced acceleration possess a stronger motivation to earn free rewards (e.g., due to a higher achievement motivation).”

In the paper

“Self-selection is also inconsistent with the analysis of participants' entire sequence of ratings (including ratings that did not eventually lead to reward), which revealed significant goal gradients.”

In the paper

“The finding that both segments demonstrate acceleration is inconsistent with the heterogeneity bias rival account.”

In the paper

“Based on a wide range of empirical and modeling approaches, the findings we report in this article provide converging evidence for the impact and importance of goal gradients in the human psychology of rewards.”

In the paper

“Compared with nonmembers of the RP, members may be willing to pay a price premium or forgo convenience (e.g., purchase more expensive and/or layover flights), particularly when they near a program goal.”

In the paper

“Building on the behaviorist goal-gradient hypothesis, we proposed that people working toward future rewards would accelerate their effort as they near the reward goal.”

In the paper

“The findings suggest that goal proximity increases customers' responsiveness to credit-earning promotions and offers.”

In the paper

“It suggests that the ownand cross-price elasticities of the RP sponsor are lower for members who are closer to the program's goals.”