The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity
Open accessAbstract
The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean–atmosphere–biosphere models, and (4) species–area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.
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Cites
Pearson, R. G., & Dawson, T. P. (2003) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1046/j.1466-822x.2003.00042.x · Cited by 4,252
Self-citationSpecies Diversity in Space and Time
Rosenzweig, M. L. (1995) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511623387 · Cited by 3,690 · cited 2×
“Fifth, the correct z value must be chosen: It must apply to the entire area under consideration, and it must also consider the type of area and timescale applicable (Rosenzweig 1995).”
BackgroundMethodClimate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison
Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Doney, S., Eby, M., Fung, I., et al. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3800.1 · Cited by 2,902
Self-citationBale, J. S., Masters, G. J., Hodkinson, I. D., Awmack, C., Bezemer, T. M., Brown, V. K., Butterfield, J., Buse, A., Coulson, J. C., Farrar, J., et al. (2002) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2002.00451.x · Cited by 2,775
Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming
Alan Pounds, J., Bustamante, M. R., Coloma, L. A., Consuegra, J. A., Fogden, M. P. L., Foster, P. N., La Marca, E., Masters, K. L., Merino-Viteri, A., Puschendorf, R., et al. (2006) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature04246 · Cited by 1,960
Cited by
Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century
Pereira, H. M., Leadley, P. W., Proença, V., Alkemade, R., Scharlemann, J. P. W., Fernandez-Manjarrés, J. F., Araújo, M. B., Balvanera, P., Biggs, R., Cheung, W. W. L., et al. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1196624 · Cited by 2,077
Self-citationSynergies among extinction drivers under global change
BROOK, B., SODHI, N., & BRADSHAW, C. (2008) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2008.03.011 · Cited by 2,031
Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios
Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D. (2009) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x · Cited by 1,626
“On the other hand, bioclimate envelope modelling is among the few available quantitative tools to predict potential ecological changes resulting from shifts in species distributions (Botkin et al. 2007).”
BackgroundAdapt or disperse: understanding species persistence in a changing world
BERG, M. P., KIERS, E. T., DRIESSEN, G., Van Der HEIJDEN, M., KOOI, B. W., KUENEN, F., LIEFTING, M., VERHOEF, H. A., & ELLERS, J. (2010) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02014.x · Cited by 616
Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high‐elevation persistence
RANDIN, C. F., ENGLER, R., NORMAND, S., ZAPPA, M., ZIMMERMANN, N. E., PEARMAN, P. B., VITTOZ, P., THUILLER, W., & GUISAN, A. (2009) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01766.x · Cited by 555
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Metadata
- Authors
- Botkin, D. B., Saxe, H., Araújo, M. B., Betts, R., Bradshaw, R. H. W., Cedhagen, T., Chesson, P., Dawson, T. P., Etterson, J. R., Faith, D. P., Ferrier, S., Guisan, A., Hansen, A. S., Hilbert, D. W., Loehle, C., Margules, C., New, M., Sobel, M. J., & Stockwell, D. R. B.
- Venue
- BioScience
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2007-03-01
- Volume
- 57
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 227-236
- ISSN
- 0006-3568 (ISSN-L)
- 1525-3244
- OpenAlex
- W2102501963
- Cited by
- 611
- References
- 5
- FWCI
- 29.08
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Botkin, D. B., Saxe, H., Araújo, M. B., Betts, R., Bradshaw, R. H. W., Cedhagen, T., Chesson, P., Dawson, T. P., Etterson, J. R., Faith, D. P., Ferrier, S., Guisan, A., Hansen, A. S., Hilbert, D. W., Loehle, C., Margules, C., New, M., Sobel, M. J., & Stockwell, D. R. B. (2007). Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity. BioScience. https://doi.org/10.1641/b570306
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