Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

Cheung, William W.L.; Lam, Vicky W.Y.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Kearney, Kelly; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

Cited by 1,626Species Distribution and Climate ChangeMarine and fisheries researchFish Ecology and Management Studies

Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

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Cheung, William W.L., Lam, Vicky W.Y., Sarmiento, Jorge L., Kearney, Kelly, Watson, Reg, Pauly, Daniel·2009·Fish and Fisheries

DOI 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x

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Abstract

Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub‐polar regions, the tropics and semi‐enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.

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Such a scenario could expand available habitat for warm water pelagic to higher latitudes.
“Such a Scenario could expand available habitat for warm water pelagic to higher latitudes (Cheung et al. 2009).”
From El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impact on tuna fisheries in Indian Ocean (2014) · cites this paper as Cheung et al. 2009

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SEA ICE RETREAT ALTERS THE BIOGEOGRAPHY OF THE BERING SEA CONTINENTAL SHELF
Mueter, F. J., & Litzow, M. A. (2008) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/07-0564.1 · Cited by 488 · cited 2× · see citing works
“Also, observations and theory suggest that marine species respond to ocean warming by shifting their latitudinal range (e.g. Perry et al. 2005; Parmesan 2006; Hiddink and Hofstede 2008; Mueter & Litzow 2008) and depth range (Dulvy et al. 2008).”
Background
Predicting climate‐induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability
Lawler, J., White, D., Neilson, R., & Blaustein, A. (2006) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01191.x · Cited by 418 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Despite its wide application in projecting climate change effects on species distributions, predictions from bioclimate envelope models are often sensitive to model assumptions and uncertainties (Pearson and Dawson 2003; Thuiller 2004; Lawler et al. 2006; Pearson et al. 2006).”
Background
Temperature Tolerance of Some Antarctic Fishes
Somero, G., & Devries, A. (1967) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.156.3772.257 · Cited by 418 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Polar species generally have temperature limits that are 2–4 times narrower than lower latitude species (Somero and DeVries 1967; Peck et al. 2004).”
Background
Extreme sensitivity of biological function to temperature in Antarctic marine species
Peck, L., Webb, K. E., & Bailey, D. (2004) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.0269-8463.2004.00903.x · Cited by 397 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Polar species generally have temperature limits that are 2–4 times narrower than lower latitude species (Somero and DeVries 1967; Peck et al. 2004).”
Background
Thermal limits and adaptation in marine Antarctic ectotherms: an integrative view
Pörtner, H., Peck, L., & Somero, G. (2007) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2006.1947 · Cited by 363 · cited 4× · see citing works
“Also, physiological compensation to changing temperature in aquatic ectotherms is far from complete (Pörtner et al. 2007).”
BackgroundInfluential
Climate induced increases in species richness of marine fishes
Hiddink, J., & ter Hofstede, R. (2008) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01518.x · Cited by 338 · cited 4× · see citing works
“Also, observations and theory suggest that marine species respond to ocean warming by shifting their latitudinal range (e.g. Perry et al. 2005; Parmesan 2006; Hiddink and Hofstede 2008; Mueter & Litzow 2008) and depth range (Dulvy et al.”
BackgroundResultInfluential
Physiology: Does gut hormone PYY3–36 decrease food intake in rodents?
Tschöp, M., Castañeda, T. R., Joost, H., Thöne-Reineke, C., Ortmann, S., Klaus, S., Hagan, M. M., Chandler, P. C., Oswald, K., Benoit, S. C., et al. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02665 · Cited by 311 · see citing works
Changes in the Range of Some Common Rocky Shore Species in Britain – A Response to Climate Change?
Mieszkowska, N., Kendall, M. A. F., Hawkins, S., Leaper, R., Williamson, P., Hardman-Mountford, N., & Southward, A. (2006) · Hydrobiologia · doi:10.1007/s10750-005-1120-6 · Cited by 294 · see citing works
Ocean temperature oscillations enable reappearance of blue mussels Mytilus edulis in Svalbard after a 1000 year absence
Berge, J., Johnsen, G., Nilsen, F., Gulliksen, B., & Slagstad, D. (2005) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps303167 · Cited by 293 · see citing works
Regional climatic warming drives long–term community changes of British marine fish
Genner, M., Sims, D., Wearmouth, V. J., Southall, E., Southward, A., Henderson, P., & Hawkins, S. (2004) · Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2003.2651 · Cited by 279 · cited 2× · see citing works
“…called species turnover) can affect biodiversity, community structure and ecosystem functions (Sala et al. 2000; Stachowicz et al. 2002; Genner et al. 2004; Hooper et al. 2005), we calculated the average frequency of invasion and local extinction events in each 30¢ · 30¢ cell from 2040…”
Background
Long-term increases in prevalence of North Sea fishes having southern biogeographic affinities
Beare, D., Burns, F., Greig, A., Jones, E. J., Peach, K., Kienzle, M., Mckenzie, E., & Reid, D. (2004) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps284269 · Cited by 224 · see citing works
The limits to biogeographical distributions: insights from the northward range extension of the marine snail, Kelletia kelletii (Forbes, 1852)
Zacherl, D., Gaines, S., & Lonhart, S. (2003) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2699.2003.00899.x · Cited by 215 · see citing works
Large–scale species–richness gradients in the Atlantic Ocean
Macpherson, E. (2002) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2002.2091 · Cited by 207 · cited 3× · see citing works
“In the ocean, the pattern of marine species richness, notably for fish and invertebrates, is strongly related to environmental factors (Macpherson 2002).”
BackgroundInfluential
North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics
Clark, R. A., Fox, C., Viner, D., & Livermore, M. (2003) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00685.x · Cited by 179 · see citing works
Application of macroecological theory to predict effects of climate change on global fisheries potential
Cheung, W. W. L., Close, C., Lam, V. W. Y., Watson, R., & Pauly, D. (2008) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps07414 · Cited by 161 · cited 10× · see citing works
“Overall, changes in pattern of species richness may disrupt marine biodiversity and ecosystems, and impact commercial fisheries (Roessig et al. 2004; Worm et al. 2006; Cheung et al. 2008b).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citation
Spatial analysis shows that fishing enhances the climatic sensitivity of marine fishes
Hsieh, C., Reiss, C., Hewitt, R., & Sugihara, G. (2008) · Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences · doi:10.1139/f08-017 · Cited by 157 · cited 2× · see citing works
“Thirdly, distribution shifts may be influenced by synergistic effects between species or anthropogenic factors that were not captured in our model (e.g. fishing) (Davis et al. 1998; Harley et al. 2006; Hsieh et al. 2008).”
Background
Recent changes in the distribution of a marine gastropod, Patella rustica Linnaeus, 1758, and their relationship to unusual climatic events
Lima, F., Queiroz, N., Ribeiro, P. A., Hawkins, S. J., & Santos, A. M. (2006) · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01457.x · Cited by 155 · cited 1×
“This bioregional classification system parallels the system proposed 8 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, F I S H and F I S H E R I E S by Longhurst (2006), as both schemes identify marine provinces from oceanographic features.”
Background
Potential climate change impacts on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off the northeastern USA
Fogarty, M., Incze, L., Hayhoe, K., Mountain, D., & Manning, J. (2008) · doi:10.1007/s11027-007-9131-4 · Cited by 142
Regional warming‐induced species shift in north‐west Mediterranean marine caves
Chevaldonné, P., & Lejeusne, C. (2003) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00439.x · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Long-term changes in the geographic distribution and population structures of Osilinus lineatus (Gastropoda: Trochidae) in Britain and Ireland
Mieszkowska, N., Hawkins, S., Burrows, M., & Kendall, M. (2007) · Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom · doi:10.1017/s0025315407053799 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Distribution-abundance relationships for North Sea Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua): observation versus theory
Blanchard, J., Mills, C., Jennings, S., Fox, C., Rackham, B., Eastwood, P., & O'Brien, C. (2005) · doi:10.1139/f05-109 · Cited by 127
Shifts in southern endpoints of distribution in rocky intertidal species along the south‐eastern Pacific coast
Rivadeneira, M., & Fernández, M. (2005) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2004.01133.x · Cited by 110 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Here, local extinction refers to a species ceasing to exist in an area although it still exists elsewhere (e.g., Peterson et al. 2002; Dulvy et al.2003), while invasion refers to the expansion of a species into an area not previously occupied by it ( Rahel and Olden 2008 ).”
Background
Modelling present and climate-shifted distribution of marine fishes and invertebrates.
Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., & Pauly, D. (2008) · Open Collections · doi:10.14288/1.0074754 · Cited by 110 · cited 10× · see citing works
“Received 15 Sep 2008 Accepted 5 Nov 2008 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x 1”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citation
Using historical data to detect temporal changes in the abundances of intertidal species on Irish shores
Simkanin, C., Power, A., Myers, A., Mcgrath, D., Southward, A., Mieszkowska, N., Leaper, R., & O'Riordan, R. (2005) · Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom · doi:10.1017/s0025315405012506 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Variations in Home Ranges of Largemouth Bass, Yellow Perch, Bluegills, and Pumpkinseeds in an Illinois Lake
Fish, P. A., & Savitz, J. (1983) · Transactions of the American Fisheries Society · doi:10.1577/1548-8659(1983)112 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Ecology (Communication arising): Is coral bleaching really adaptive?
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jones, R. J., Ward, S., & Loh, W. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/415601a · Cited by 77 · cited 1×
“Also, there is little theoretical or experimental evidence that absolute tolerances to climate change of a species will evolve sufficiently to conserve its distribution range (Etterson and Shaw 2001; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2002; Donner et al. 2005; Jump and Peñuelas 2005; Parmesan 2006).”
Background
Potential changes in skipjack tuna ( <i>Katsuwonus pelamis</i> ) habitat from a global warming scenario: modelling approach and preliminary results
Loukos, H., Monfray, P., Bopp, L., & Lehodey, P. (2003) · Fisheries Oceanography · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2419.2003.00241.x · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Intertidal zone of Svalbard 3. Littoral of a subarctic, oceanic island: Bjornoya
̧esławski, J. M. W., Zajączkowski, M., Wiktor, J., & Szymelfenig, M. (1997) · Polar Biology · doi:10.1007/s003000050157 · Cited by 59
Zooplankton response to a warmer northern Wadden Sea
Martens, P., & van Beusekom, J. V. (2008) · Helgoland Marine Research · doi:10.1007/s10152-007-0097-0 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Biodiversity conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk/Effects of changes in climate and land use/Climate change and extinction risk (reply)
Thomas, C. M., Williams, S. E., Cameron, A., Green, R. E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L., Collingham, Y., Erasmus, B., de Siqueira, M. D., Grainger, A., et al. (2004) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature02719 · Cited by 53 · cited 5×
“%) predicted for terrestrial organisms (Thomas et al. 2004a,b).”
BackgroundMethodResultInfluential
The global distribution of wind‐induced upwelling
Xie, L., & Hsieh, W. W. (1995) · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2419.1995.tb00060.x · Cited by 45
Individual-Based Model of Young-of-the-Year Striped Bass Population Dynamics. II. Factors Affecting Recruitment in the Potomac River, Maryland
Cowan, J. H., Rose, K. A., Rutherford, E. S., & Houde, E. D. (1993) · Transactions of the American Fisheries Society · doi:10.1577/1548-8659(1993)122 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Tackling the old familiar problems of pollution, habitat alteration and overfishing will help with adapting to climate change.
Holt, S. (2009) · Marine Pollution Bulletin · doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2009.01.008 · Cited by 18 · cited 3×
“fishing) on marine organisms (Rose 2004; Brander 2008), increasing their vulnerability to extinction (Walther et al.”
Background
Uncertainties in Measuring Climate Change Impact on Marine Biodiversity
Mohan, P. M., & Velmurugan, A. (2008) · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-813064-3.00017-x · Cited by 1

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Sorted by citations

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity
Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thuiller, W., & Courchamp, F. (2012) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x · Cited by 3,915 · see citing works
The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection
Pimm, S. L., Jenkins, C. N., Abell, R., Brooks, T. M., Gittleman, J. L., Joppa, L. N., Raven, P. H., Roberts, C. M., & Sexton, J. O. (2014) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1246752 · Cited by 3,542 · see citing works
“(74) used a global climate model to predict range shifts, extinction, and invasion intensities based on ocean warming up to 2050 for 1066 species of exploited marine fish and invertebrates.”
Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems
Doney, S. C., Ruckelshaus, M., Emmett Duffy, J., Barry, J. P., Chan, F., English, C. A., Galindo, H. M., Grebmeier, J. M., Hollowed, A. B., Knowlton, N., et al. (2012) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611 · Cited by 3,014 · see citing works
“Bioclimate envelope models predict that invasion intensity (the number of invasions relative to current species richness) may reach a global average of 55% by 2050 (Cheung et al. 2009).”
Background
A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves
Hobday, A. J., Alexander, L. V., Perkins, S. E., Smale, D. A., Straub, S. C., Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., et al. (2016) · Progress in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014 · Cited by 2,377 · see citing works
“Concurrent with these observations, predictions of how species distribution and biodiversity will respond to continued climate change have been developed (e.g. Cheung et al. 2009; Engler et al. 2011; Sen Gupta et al. 2015).”
Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century
Pereira, H. M., Leadley, P. W., Proença, V., Alkemade, R., Scharlemann, J. P. W., Fernandez-Manjarrés, J. F., Araújo, M. B., Balvanera, P., Biggs, R., Cheung, W. W. L., et al. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1196624 · Cited by 2,077 · see citing works
Self-citation
Thermal tolerance and the global redistribution of animals
Sunday, J. M., Bates, A. E., & Dulvy, N. K. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1539 · Cited by 1,585 · see citing works
Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO 2 emissions scenarios
Gattuso, J., Magnan, A., Billé, R., Cheung, W. W. L., Howes, E. L., Joos, F., Allemand, D., Bopp, L., Cooley, S. R., Eakin, C. M., et al. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aac4722 · Cited by 1,491 · see citing works
Self-citation
Marine Taxa Track Local Climate Velocities
Pinsky, M. L., Worm, B., Fogarty, M. J., Sarmiento, J. L., & Levin, S. A. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1239352 · Cited by 1,420 · see citing works
Self-citation
The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems
Burrows, M., Schoeman, D., Buckley, L. B., Moore, P., Poloczanska, E., Brander, K., Brown, C., Bruno, J., Duarte, C. M., Halpern, B., et al. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1210288 · Cited by 1,338 · see citing works
Vulnerability of national economies to the impacts of climate change on fisheries
Allison, E. H., Perry, A. L., Badjeck, M., Adger, W. N., Brown, K., Conway, D., Halls, A. S., Pilling, G. M., Reynolds, J. D., Andrew, N. L., et al. (2009) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00310.x · Cited by 1,284 · see citing works
Marine defaunation: Animal loss in the global ocean
McCauley, D. J., Pinsky, M. L., Palumbi, S. R., Estes, J. A., Joyce, F. H., & Warner, R. R. (2015) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1255641 · Cited by 1,305 · see citing works
“On the other hand, the greater mobility of many marine animal species may help them to better follow the velocity of climate change and to colonize and recolonize habitats, so long as source population refuges are kept available (71, 73, 78, 86, 87).”
Large‐scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change
CHEUNG, W. W. L., LAM, V. W. Y., SARMIENTO, J. L., KEARNEY, K., WATSON, R., ZELLER, D., & PAULY, D. (2010) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.01995.x · Cited by 1,226 · see citing works
Self-citation
Climate change effects on fishes and fisheries: towards a cause‐and‐effect understanding
Pörtner, H., & Peck, M. A. (2010) · Journal of Fish Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02783.x · Cited by 1,095 · see citing works
“Recent modelling results for >800 commercially important marine fish species (Cheung et al., 2009) suggested that climate change could lead to numerous local extinction events by the year 2050, particularly in subpolar regions, the tropics and semi-enclosed seas (e.”
Background
Responses of Marine Organisms to Climate Change across Oceans
Poloczanska, E. S., Burrows, M. T., Brown, C. J., Molinos, J. G., Halpern, B. S., Hoegh‐Guldberg, O., Kappel, C. V., Moore, P. J., Richardson, A. J., Schoeman, D. S., et al. (2016) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2016.00062 · Cited by 1,052 · see citing works
Recent warming leads to a rapid borealization of fish communities in the Arctic
Fossheim, M., Primicerio, R., Johannesen, E., Ingvaldsen, R., Aschan, M., & Dolgov, A. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2647 · Cited by 780 · see citing works
Impacts of climate change on fisheries
Brander, K. (2009) · Journal of Marine Systems · doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.015 · Cited by 725 · see citing works
Shrinking of fishes exacerbates impacts of global ocean changes on marine ecosystems
Cheung, W. W. L., Sarmiento, J., Dunne, J., Frölicher, T., Lam, V. W. Y., Palomares, M. L. D., Watson, R., & Pauly, D. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1691 · Cited by 702 · see citing works
Self-citation
Antarctic climate change and the environment
Convey, P., Bindschadler, R., di Prisco, G., Fahrbach, E., Gutt, J., Hodgson, D. A., Mayewski, P. A., Summerhayes, C. P., & Turner, J. C. (2009) · Antarctic Science · doi:10.1017/s0954102009990642 · Cited by 574 · see citing works
Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries
Sumaila, U., Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Pauly, D., & Herrick, S. (2011) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1301 · Cited by 673 · see citing works
“The magnitude of observed distribution shifts corroborate the model projections, and distribution shifts are expected to continue in the future under most emission scenario”
Self-citation
Can We Name Earth's Species Before They Go Extinct?
Costello, M. J., May, R., & Stork, N. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1230318 · Cited by 636 · see citing works
The Mediterranean Sea under siege: spatial overlap between marine biodiversity, cumulative threats and marine reserves
Coll, M., Piroddi, C., Albouy, C., Lasram, F. B. R., Cheung, W. W. L., Christensen, V., Karpouzi, V., Guilhaumon, F., Mouillot, D., Paleczny, M., et al. (2012) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00697.x · Cited by 635 · see citing works
“…to substantially increase in the future and that are predicted to have an important effect on marine resources and fisheries in the Mediterranean Sea, such as climate change and invasive species (Galil, 2000; Bianchi, 2007; Cheung et al., 2009, 2010; Lasram et al., 2010), are widely distributed.”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Identification of global marine hotspots: sentinels for change and vanguards for adaptation action
Hobday, A. J., & Pecl, G. T. (2013) · Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries · doi:10.1007/s11160-013-9326-6 · Cited by 655 · see citing works
“Additionally, in many of these areas the fisheries catch potential has been predicted to decline by 40 % by 2055 (Cheung et al. 2009).”
Background
Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity
Molinos, J. G., Halpern, B. S., Schoeman, D. S., Brown, C. J., Kiessling, W., Moore, P. J., Pandolfi, J. M., Poloczanska, E. S., Richardson, A. J., & Burrows, M. T. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2769 · Cited by 679 · see citing works
“Previous attempts to 35 globally project biogeographical shifts of marine species in response to climate change 6, 17 36 have all been based on the bioclimatic-niche and population-dynamics model developed by 37 Cheung et al.(5).”
Method
Multiple Stressors in a Changing World: The Need for an Improved Perspective on Physiological Responses to the Dynamic Marine Environment
Gunderson, A. R., Armstrong, E. J., & Stillman, J. H. (2015) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-122414-033953 · Cited by 668 · see citing works
The Effect of Ocean Acidification on Calcifying Organisms in Marine Ecosystems: An Organism-to-Ecosystem Perspective
Hofmann, G. E., Barry, J., Edmunds, P. J., Gates, R. D., Hutchins, D. A., Klinger, T., & Sewell, M. A. (2010) · Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.110308.120227 · Cited by 536 · see citing works
Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods
Badjeck, M., Allison, E. H., Halls, A. S., & Dulvy, N. K. (2009) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2009.08.007 · Cited by 558 · see citing works
Climate-Driven Shifts in Marine Species Ranges: Scaling from Organisms to Communities
Pinsky, M. L., Selden, R. L., & Kitchel, Z. J. (2019) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-010419-010916 · Cited by 626 · see citing works
“Much progress has been made in using high-resolution projections of environmental variables and increasingly sophisticated approaches to project future species distributions at global (Cheung et al. 2009, Molinos et al. 2015) or regional scales (Morley et al. 2018) by the end of the century.”
BackgroundInfluential
Community ecology in a warming world: The influence of temperature on interspecific interactions in marine systems
Kordas, R., Harley, C. D. G., & O'Connor, M. (2011) · Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2011.02.029 · Cited by 515 · see citing works
“Warming-induced range shifts may widely alter the compliment of interacting species at a site (Cheung et al., 2009), and interspecific interactions may determine the extent to which any given species range changes with warming.”
Background
Fish conservation in freshwater and marine realms: status, threats and management
Arthington, A. H., Dulvy, N. K., Gladstone, W. E., & Winfield, I. J. (2016) · Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · doi:10.1002/aqc.2712 · Cited by 555 · see citing works
“It is increasingly clear that there will be considerable species turnover, local extinction and invasion (Cheung et al., 2009) and the key challenge will be to track local, regional and global species extinctions through Red List Assessment (Stuart et al.”
Background
Extreme climatic event drives range contraction of a habitat-forming species
Smale, D. A., & Wernberg, T. (2013) · Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rspb.2012.2829 · Cited by 479 · see citing works
“The current paradigm implies that species ranges change continuously with warming [7], yet this perception cannot be reconciled with recent observations of no [8,9] or abrupt [10,11] ecological change in response to gradual warming.”
Background
Global marine primary production constrains fisheries catches.
Chassot, E., Bonhommeau, S., Dulvy, N., Mélin, F., Watson, R., Gascuel, D., & Pape, O. L. (2010) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01443.x · Cited by 486 · see citing works
Self-citation
Ecological niche models and species distribution models in marine environments: A literature review and spatial analysis of evidence
Melo-Merino, S. M., Reyes-Bonilla, H., & Lira-Noriega, A. (2020) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108837 · Cited by 483 · see citing works
A Vulnerability Assessment of Fish and Invertebrates to Climate Change on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf
Hare, J., Morrison, W. E., Nelson, M. W., Stachura, M., Teeters, E. J., Griffis, R., Alexander, M. A., Scott, J. D., Alade, L. A., Bell, R., et al. (2016) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0146756 · Cited by 476 · see citing works
“Finally, Bioclimatic Envelop Modeling has been conducted at the global [19, 20] and regional scale [96].”
Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity
Henson, S. A., Sarmiento, J. L., Dunne, J. P. P., Bopp, L., Lima, I. D., Doney, S. C., John, J. G., & Beaulieu, C. (2010) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-7-621-2010 · Cited by 489 · see citing works
“Phytoplankton are also the base of the marine food web and shifts in the dominant species or overall abundance may alter fishery ranges and yields (e.g. Iverson, 1990; Chavez et al., 2003; Ware and Thomson, 2005; Cheung et al., 2009a, 2009b).”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?
Merino, G., Barangé, M., Blanchard, J. L., Harle, J. D., Holmes, R., Allen, I., Allison, E. H., Badjeck, M. C., Dulvy, N. K., Holt, J., et al. (2012) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.03.003 · Cited by 429 · see citing works
“Our model predicts qualitatively similar results to predictions based on bioclimate envelopes (Cheung et al., 2009b) but with some specific differences.”
BackgroundResultInfluential
Women and fisheries: Contribution to food security and local economies
Harper, S., Zeller, D., Hauzer, M., Pauly, D., & Sumaila, U. (2013) · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2012.10.018 · Cited by 417
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Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems
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Authors: Cheung, W. W. L., Lam, V. W. Y., Sarmiento, J. L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., & Pauly, D.
Affiliations: University of British Columbia (CA)
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author: Cheung, William W.L.
ORCID: Cheung, William W.L.
Lam, Vicky W.Y.
Sarmiento, Jorge L.
Kearney, Kelly
Watson, Reg
Pauly, Daniel
Venue: Fish and Fisheries
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2009-08-13
Volume: 10
Issue: 3
Pages: 235-251
ISSN: 1467-2960 (ISSN-L)
1467-2979
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x
OpenAlex: W2170590389
Cited by: 1,626
References: 93
Citations by year: 2026: 48 · 2025: 86 · 2024: 100 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 104 · 2021: 122 · 2020: 160 · 2019: 108 · 2018: 87 · 2017: 96 · 2016: 109 · 2015: 82 · 2014: 90 · 2013: 102 · 2012: 73
FWCI: 39.59
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
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Licence: cc-by
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Fish and Fisheries (publishedVersion)
eCite Digital Repository (University of Tasmania) (submittedVersion)
Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Fish Ecology and Management Studies
Keywords: climate change impacts, marine biodiversity, species distribution projections, local extinction, biological invasions, species turnover, marine invertebrates, Arctic, Southern Ocean, ecosystem services

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

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Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Integrity signals

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Cites

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Record

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