The DOI matches its Crossref record; 30 of the 30 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Early Warning Signals Based on Momentary Affect Dynamics can Expose Nearby Transitions in Depression: A Confirmatory Single-Subject Time-Series Study
Open accessAbstract
Background: In complex systems early warning signals such as rising autocorrelation, variance and network connectivity are hypothesized to anticipate relevant shifts in a system. For direct evidence hereof in depression, designs are needed in which early warning signals and symptom transitions are prospectively assessed within an individual. Therefore, this study aimed to detect personalized early warning signals preceding the occurrence of a major symptom transition. Methods: Six single- subject time-series studies were conducted, collecting frequent observations of momentary affective states during a time-period when participants were at increased risk of a symptom transition. Momentary affect states were reported three times a day over three to six months (95-183 days). Depressive symptoms were measured weekly using the Symptom CheckList-90. Presence of sudden symptom transitions was assessed using change point analysis. Early warning signals were analysed using moving window techniques. Results: As change point analysis revealed a significant and sudden symptom transition in one participant in the studied period, early warning signals were examined in this person. Autocorrelation (r=0·51; p<2.2e-16), and variance (r=0·53; p<2.2e-16) in ‘feeling down’, and network connectivity (r=0·42; p<2.2e-16) significantly increased a month before this transition occurred. These early warnings also preceded the rise in absolute levels of ‘feeling down’ and the participant’s personal indication of risk for transition. Conclusions: This study replicated the findings of a previous study and confirmed the presence of rising early warning signals a month before the symptom transition occurred. Results show the potential of early warning signals to improve personalized risk assessment in the field of psychiatry.
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“The promise of ESM data for early identification of adolescents at risk for the development of psychopathology has been demonstrated in a research setting with adults [24] and adolescents [25].”
From A Smartphone Serious Game for Adolescents (Grow It! App): Development, Feasibility, and Acceptance Study (2022) · cites this paper as [24]
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Cites
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MethodAnticipating Critical Transitions
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S. R., Lenton, T. M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W., Dakos, V., van de Koppel, J., van de Leemput, I. A., Levin, S. A., van Nes, E. H., et al. (2012) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1225244 · Cited by 2,208 · cited 2×
“This is because all of these signals indicate that the system is getting slower in recovering from minor perturbations, which is also referred to as ‘critical slowing down’ (Scheffer et al., 2009; Scheffer et al., 2012; van de Leemput et al., 2014).”
BackgroundDakos, V., Carpenter, S. R., Brock, W. A., Ellison, A. M., Guttal, V., Ives, A. R., Kéfi, S., Livina, V., Seekell, D. A., van Nes, E. H., et al. (2012) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0041010 · Cited by 1,151
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Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression
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Self-citationMajor Depression as a Complex Dynamic System
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Validity and Reliability of the Experience-Sampling Method
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Psychopathological networks: Theory, methods and practice
Bringmann, L. F., Albers, C. J., Bockting, C., Borsboom, D., Ceulemans, E., Cramer, A. O. J., Epskamp, S., Eronen, M. I., Hamaker, E. L., Kuppens, P., et al. (2021) · Behaviour Research and Therapy · doi:10.1016/j.brat.2021.104011 · Cited by 325
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Metadata
- Authors
- Wichers, M., Smit, A. C., & Snippe, E.
- Affiliations
- University Medical Center Groningen (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Wichers, Marieke
- Venue
- Journal for Person-Oriented Research
- Publisher
- Journal for Person-Oriented Research
- Published
- 2020-09-10
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-15
- ISSN
- 2002-0244 (ISSN-L)
- 2003-0177
- PMC
- PMC7842626
- OpenAlex
- W3085042055
- Cited by
- 103
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 15.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Journal for Person-Oriented Research (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- European Commission (HORIZON2020)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Mental Health Research Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Bipolar Disorder and Treatment
- Keywords
- early warning indicators, depression, momentary affect, emotional dynamics, autocorrelation, variance, network connectivity, change-point analysis, individual risk assessment
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