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Critical Slowing Down in Momentary Affect as Early Warning Signal of Impending Transitions in Depression

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Smit, Arnout C., Helmich, Marieke A., Bringmann, Laura F., Oldehinkel, Albertine J., Wichers, Marieke, Snippe, Evelien·2025·Clinical Psychological Science
DOI 10.1177/21677026241305136
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Abstract

Based on dynamical-systems theory, in the current study, we aimed to investigate if recurrence of depression is systematically preceded by within-persons early warning signals (EWSs) in positive and negative affect. Ecological momentary assessments were collected five times a day for a period of 4 months (averaging 524 assessments per individual) from 37 formerly depressed individuals discontinuing antidepressant medication. EWSs (increases in window autocorrelation and variance) preceded recurrence of depression in 32.9% of the participants across robustness checks. Compared with participants that remained in remission, participants with a recurrence showed significantly more positive trends in the variance but not in autocorrelation, and the average number of significant EWSs was more than 3 times larger across tested affect variables. Although the results provide the first systematic evidence that EWSs occur more often before the recurrence of depression, the low sensitivity of EWSs poses a substantial challenge for clinical applications.

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Authors
Smit, A. C., Helmich, M. A., Bringmann, L. F., Oldehinkel, A. J., Wichers, M., & Snippe, E.
Affiliations
University Medical Center Groningen (NL)
Corresponding author
Smit, Arnout C.
ORCID
Venue
Clinical Psychological Science
Publisher
SAGE Publications
Published
2025-02-05
Volume
13
Issue
4
Pages
760-773
ISSN
  • 2167-7026 (ISSN-L)
  • 2167-7034
DOI
10.1177/21677026241305136
OpenAlex
W4407184704
Cited by
18
References
12
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 3
FWCI
4.48
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Clinical Psychological Science (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Research portal (Tilburg University) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion)
  • University of Groningen research database (University of Groningen / Centre for Information Technology) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • H2020 European Research Council (ERC-CoG-2015; No 681466 to M. Wichers)
  • ZonMw (ZonMw Off Road; project 451001029 (40-08125-98-18041))
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Mental Health Research Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Mental Health via Writing
Keywords
critical slowing down, early warning indicators, depression recurrence, momentary affect, positive affect, negative affect, ecological momentary assessment, within-person dynamics, autocorrelation, variance, antidepressant discontinuation, dynamical systems theory, tipping points

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