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Cited by 49Diverse Aspects of Tourism ResearchMulti-Agent Systems and NegotiationComplex Systems and Time Series Analysis

Modelling Tourism in the Galapagos Islands: An Agent-Based Model Approach

Open access
Pizzitutti, Francesco, Mena, Carlos F., Walsh, Stephen J.·2014·Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
DOI 10.18564/jasss.2389
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Abstract

Currently tourism is the main driver of change in the Galapagos Islands, affecting the social, terrestrial, and marine sub-systems. Tourism also has direct and indirect consequences for the unique archipelago's natural habitats and for the human well-being. Describing the mechanisms that drive and affect most the tourism development in Galapagos is a preliminary condition to developing a better understanding of the interaction structure of factors that shape the Galapagos archipelago as a social-ecological complex system. In this paper, we present a first attempt to represent the touristic market in Galapagos trough an Agent Based Model (ABM) of touristic activity, focusing on touristic offers, reservations, and touristic activities. The model is based on an individual-based representation of tourists' consumption preferences and touristic accommodation offers in the Galapagos Islands. Tourist agents are created to mimic the real world by assigning average characteristics of individuals who visit the Galapagos Archipelago of Ecuador. The accommodation offers (i.e., hotels and cruises) are generated in accordance with actual conditions derived from data collected through field surveys. The model includes a market agent that can change the prices, create and delete accommodation offers following an evolutionary algorithm. We carried out preliminary simulations that show a close agreement between real world data and model outputs. Furthermore we used the model to generate three 'what if' scenarios in order to study how emergent patterns in the touristic market in Galapagos are affected by changes in the archipelago environment. In this way we illustrate how the model can be used as a useful tool to help public policy makers to explore the consequences of their decisions.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper presents a first agent-based model of the Galapagos tourism market, representing tourist agents, accommodation offers, and a market operator that adapts prices and offer numbers through evolutionary replication. Calibration reproduces land/boat-based proportions and island distributions, and a park-fee increase scenario sharply shifts the market toward boat-based tourism.

Key findings

  • Calibration with \((C_f, C_N, C_A) = (1, 2, 0.2)\) produced reference-run fractions close to empirical data: boat-based 0.44 vs 0.42, land-based 0.56 vs 0.58, land-after-boat 0.26 vs 0.20, San Cristobal 0.16 vs 0.23, and Isabela 0.08 vs 0.08.
  • The “what if” scenarios for a new Isabela airport and tourism collapse showed no significant change from the reference calibration run; the park-ticket-increase scenario shifted boat-based tourists to 0.76 and land-based tourists to 0.24, with land-after-boat at 0.59, San Cristobal at 0.08, and Isabela at 0.07.
  • In the park-ticket-increase scenario, the average monthly number of tourist agents succeeding in reserving accommodation fell from 14,880 in the calibration reference model to 8,322, a decrease of about 56%; the removed agents were low-budget tourists.
  • During simulation, cruise boats changed from an initial 66 vessels to an average of 47.2 in the last 7 years, and hotels in Santa Cruz, San Cristobal, Isabela, and Floreana changed from 43, 24, 35, and 2 to 34.5, 7.3, 4.3, and 0, respectively.

Methods

  • Design: an ODD-protocol agent-based model implemented in MASON, with a daily time step and five main entity types: tourist agents, accommodation offer agents, a market operator agent, a tourist agent generator, and a geographic environment representing the Galapagos; tourist agents choose offers based on budget, character, age, and island attractions, while the market operator replicates profitable offers, adjusts prices, and removes bankrupt offers.
  • Data and sample: initialization used Galapagos National Park statistics, the 2011 Galapagos Tourism Monitoring Center field survey, INEC roads data, INGALA coastlines, hotel and cruise data, and a telephone survey for hotel prices; tourist agents were generated from empirical distributions, with 200,000 generated tourists per year, 15-year runs, 10 independent runs, and comparison over the last 7 simulation years after an 8-year equilibration period.
  • Analysis: calibration involved a systematic search over three parameters \((C_f, C_N, C_A)\) to match land/boat-based proportions and spatial distributions; validation compared model outputs with Galapagos National Park and Galapagos Tourism Monitoring Center data; three “what if” scenarios tested an Isabela airport, tourism collapse, and an increase in park fees to $400 for all tourists.

Limitations

  • Stated: calibration is only qualitative because empirical data are known only approximately and no empirical time-series data are available; new empirical data and additional validation are needed to determine whether the model is sufficiently robust; the model is a first step toward a broader ABM.
  • Stated: the model assumes unrestricted information access for tourist agents and the market operator, even though real-world tourism-market information may be asymmetric; it also lacks data on the percentage of tourists booking hotels in advance for more than one day and on hotel cancellation policies.
  • Evident from the text: validation focuses on aggregate land/boat proportions and island distributions rather than the number and spatial distribution of accommodation offers; the “what if” results are described as information about how the model reacts to state-variable changes, not as empirically validated predictions.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.18564/jasss.2389

Cites

19 of 19 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

3 of 26 cited sources checked · 1 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Attempts to regulate tourism and to create a sustainable island economy that explicitly links to nature have been fleeting and episodic.

    “Attempts to regulate tourism and to create a sustainable island economy that explicitly links to nature have been fleeting and episodic.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites González, Montes, Rodríguez, & Tapia 2008 source

      The Historical profile describes the 1998 Galapagos Special Law and a 2003 regional plan aimed at balancing economic growth with biodiversity conservation; the Adaptive cycles section says nature tourism was promoted as an ally of conservation. These passages support the existence of such efforts, but not the claim that they were fleeting and episodic. The section on strengthening participative approaches instead reports institutional progress in tourism management since 1998. (LLM, conf=0.83)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisenone given
    § Introduction

    Despite a few preliminary works, no attempt has been made to build a computational model of a touristic destination that integrates the economic, social, environmental and psychological features of all the actors involved.

    “Indeed, despite few preliminary works (Johnson and Sieber 2011; Balbi and Giupponi 2010; Yin 2007; Cecchini and Trunfio 2007), no attempt has been made to build a computational model of a touristic destination that integrates the economic, social, environmental and psychological features of all the actors involved.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Johnson and Sieber 2011 source
    • cites Balbi and Giupponi 2010

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Yin 2007 source
  • Findingown data
    § ABM experiments

    For scenarios (a) and (b), the model does not show any significant change regarding the reference calibration run.

    “We note that for scenarios (a) and (b), the model does not show any significant change regarding the reference calibration run.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Abstract

    Preliminary simulations show a close agreement between real world data and model outputs.

    “We carried out preliminary simulations that show a close agreement between real world data and model outputs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    After an initial equilibration period, the curves representing the monthly number of tourist agents reserving cruise trips or visiting the four inhabited islands reach a plateau.

    “After an initial equilibration period, the curves representing the monthly number of tourist agents reserving cruise trips or visiting the four inhabited islands reach a plateau.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 25
  • May combine two claims. 18

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Typically, CHANS are difficult to study because of their non-linearity characteristics, multiple space-time scales, complex feedback mechanisms, and unique local contexts that are linked to forces of globalization.

    “Typically, CHANS are difficult to study because of their non-linearity characteristics, multiple space-time scales, complex feedback mechanisms, and unique local contexts that are linked to forces of globalization.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ostrom 2007 source

      The passage headed “A Nested Framework for Analyzing Interactions and Outcomes of Linked SESs” (indexed as Abstract; no page supplied) describes social–ecological systems as nonlinear, cross-scale, changing, and difficult to analyze. Other supplied passages discuss feedback and the importance of particular settings. Our copy does not establish the claim that unique local contexts are linked to forces of globalization. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingcitation
    § The Galapagos Tourism Market: Uncontrolled, Explosive Expansion

    Tourist arrivals in Galapagos grew exponentially from 1995 to 2011, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 9%.

    “A review of the available data from the Galapagos National Park (Parque Nacional Galápagos 2012) shows that tourist arrivals in Galapagos grew exponentially from 1995-2011, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 9% (see Figure 2).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Parque Nacional Galápagos 2012

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The number of cruise boats changed from an initial value of 66 vessels to an average value of 47.2 in the last 7 years of the simulation runs.

    “the number of cruise boats changed from an initial value of 66 vessels to an average value of 47.2 in the last 7-years of the simulation runs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § The Agent Based Model

    The model reproduces the relative proportion of land- and boat-based tourists and the spatial distribution of accommodation offers and tourist agents across the Galapagos Archipelago.

    “Many macroscopic patterns emerge from the tourist, offer, and market operator agents' individual behaviors - the model reproduce the relative proportion of land- and boat-based tourists and the spatial distribution of accommodation offers and tourist agents across the Galapagos Archipelago.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § ABM experiments

    In scenario (c), the proportion of land-based tourist agents collapses to 24% of arriving tourist agents, while boat-based tourist agents assume 76% of visiting tourist agents.

    “the proportion of land-based tourist agents collapses to 24% of the arriving tourist agents, while the boat-based tourist agents assume 76% of the visiting tourist agents.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    During the simulation time, some hotels are removed from the simulation while others are created.

    “during the simulation time, some hotels are removed from the simulation, while other a created.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    After the first equilibration period, the number and spatial distribution of accommodation offers is different from the initial configuration.

    “after the first equilibration period, the number and the spatial distribution of the accommodation offers is different with regards to the initial configuration.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The plots in Figure 6 show a typical seasonal behavior between the months of September and October, the period with lowest touristic presence.

    “The plots in Figure 6 also show a typical seasonal behavior between the months of September and October, the period with lowest touristic presence.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Conclusion

    The model outputs are quite consistent with the available empirical data sets, showing that the individual-based mechanism and processes defined to build the model can closely reproduce some of the key aspects of the Galapagos tourism market.

    “The model outputs are quite consistent with the available empirical data sets showing that the individual-based mechanism and processes defined to build the model can closely reproduce some of the key aspects of the Galapagos tourism market.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The number of hotels in Santa Cruz, San Cristobal, Isabela, and Floreana changed from 43, 24, 35 and 2 to 34.5, 7.3, 4.3 and 0 respectively for the last 7 years of the simulation.

    “the number of hotels in Santa Cruz, San Cristobal, Isabela, and Floreana changed from 43, 24, 35 and 2 to 34.5, 7.3, 4.3 and 0 respectively for the last 7-years of the simulation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The final calibration outputs correspond to the value of the calibration vector (C_f, C_N, C_A) = (1, 2, 0.2).

    “In Figure 6, we show the final calibration outputs corresponding to the value of the calibration vector (C f , C N , C A ) = (1, 2, 0.2).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation
    § The Agent Based Model

    The model was described following the ODD (Overview - Design concepts - Details) protocol proposed by Grimm et al. (2006; 2010).

    “This ABM is described following the "'Overview - Design concepts - Details" (ODD) protocol proposed by Grimm et al. ( 2006; 2010).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Grimm et al. (2006; 2010)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation
    § The Galapagos Tourism Market: Uncontrolled, Explosive Expansion

    Almost every touristic experience in Galapagos is a first-time experience, probably never to be repeated.

    “This implies that almost every touristic experience in Galapagos is a first time experience, probably never to be repeated.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § The Galapagos Tourism Market: Uncontrolled, Explosive Expansion

    The expansion of tourism in Galapagos is still in the 'development' phase of Butler's destination life-cycle, not yet approaching the 'stagnation' phase.

    “As showed in Figure 2, the expansion of tourism in Galapagos is still in the "development" phase, not yet approaching the "stagnation" phase.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Butler (1980) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Tourism has direct and indirect consequences for the unique archipelago's natural habitats and for human well-being.

    “Tourism also has direct and indirect consequences for the unique archipelago's natural habitats and for the human well-being.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Bensted-Smith 1999

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Trueman et al. 2010 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract

    Tourism is the main driver of change in the Galapagos Islands, affecting the social, terrestrial, and marine sub-systems.

    “Currently tourism is the main driver of change in the Galapagos Islands, affecting the social, terrestrial, and marine sub-systems.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Epler 2007

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Watkins & Cruz 2007

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning
    § The Galapagos Tourism Market: Uncontrolled, Explosive Expansion

    The difference between land- and boat-based tourists is highly relevant for the impact on the social, terrestrial, and marine sub-systems, because land-based tourism implies greater urban development and supporting infrastructure, use of public transportation and private vehicles, increased exotic species introduction, depletion of drinking water reserves, energy consumption, waste generation, and

    “The difference between land and boat-based tourists is highly relevant from the point of view of the impact on the social, terrestrial, and marine sub-systems, as land-based tourism implies greater urban development and supporting infrastructure, use of public transportation and private vehicles, increased rate of exotic species introduction”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § The Galapagos Tourism Market: Uncontrolled, Explosive Expansion

    The Galapagos touristic market evolution process in the last few years followed the same general pattern of growth seen on the Ecuadorian mainland and in the neighboring countries of Peru and Bolivia.

    “The Galapagos touristic market evolution process in the last few years followed the same general pattern of growth seen on the Ecuadorian mainland and in the neighboring countries of Peru and Bolivia (World Tourism Organization 2006).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites World Tourism Organization 2006

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Introduction

    Local communities in the Galapagos have experienced a rapid increase in residential population caused by migration of Ecuadorians from the mainland in search of jobs in the lucrative tourism industry, with negative implications for the unique and fragile natural environment.

    “For instance, local communities in the Galapagos have experienced a rapid increase in the residential population caused by the migration of Ecuadorians from the mainland in search of jobs in the lucrative tourism industry, with negative implications for the unique and fragile natural environment of this World Heritage Site (Bensted-Smith 1999; Trueman et al. 2010).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Bensted-Smith 1999

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Trueman et al. 2010 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § The Agent Based Model

    High budget tourist agents prefer the highest quality offers.

    “the high budget tourist agent will prefer the highest quality offers”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Piana 2004

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationnone given
    § Conclusion

    The dynamics and changes of a touristic destination like the Galapagos Islands depend on a high number of combined factors that, in most cases, act also at the individual scale of tourists and touristic offers.

    “The dynamics and changes of a touristic destination like Galapagos Islands depend on a high number of combined factors that, in most cases, act also at the individual scale of tourists and touristic offers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § The Agent Based Model

    Islands that show roads with more extension along the seafront tend to be more attractive for sun and beach tourist agents, while islands that show roads that bring tourist agents far from the urban centers tend to be more attractive for world heritage type tourist agents.

    “We note that, in this way, the islands that show roads with more extension along the seafront tend to be more attractive for sun and beach tourist agents, while islands that show roads that bring tourist agents far from the urban centers tend to be more attractive for world heritage type tourist agents.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation
    § The Agent Based Model

    Medium budget tourist agents follow a best quality for minimum price strategy.

    “the medium budget tourist agents will follow a best quality for minimum price strategy”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Piana 2004

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    In the context of the calibration process, the changes in the number and spatial distribution of accommodation offers are not significant because the authors are interested in finding a state of the model that can reproduce the distribution of tourists among land- and boat-based offers and among the islands, and not the number and distribution of touristic offers.

    “In the context of our calibration process, these changes are not significant because we are interested in finding a state of our model that can reproduce the distribution of tourists among land- and boat-based offers and among the islands of the archipelago, and not the number and distribution of touristic offers.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § The Agent Based Model

    The reservation process was designed so that tourist agents cannot reserve a hotel for more than one day because the authors have no information about the percentage of tourists booking hotels in advance in Galapagos for more than one day.

    “We note that, in this way, the tourist agents cannot reserve a hotel for more than one day. Of course, this is not what actually happens in the real world as in certain cases a tourist wants to book in the same place for more than one day. However, the reservation process was designed in this way because we have no information about the percentage of tourists booking hotels in advance in Galapagos”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The calibration process was performed by varying the value of three parameters: C_f, C_N, and C_A.

    “We performed the calibration process by varying the value of three parameters: C f , C N , and C A .”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The first 8 simulation years were considered a time interval during which the system can reach a local equilibrium, allowing accommodation offers to adjust their prices and numbers to the characteristics of the tourist agents.

    “we considered the first 8 simulation years as a time interval during which the system can reach a local equilibrium, allowing the accommodation offers to adjust their prices and numbers to the characteristics of the tourist agents.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation
    § The Agent Based Model

    Low budget tourist agents prefer lowest price offers.

    “low budget tourist agents will prefer lowest price offers”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Piana 2004

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Conclusion

    The model was parameterized exploiting to the maximum extent the available empirical data sets.

    “We parameterized the model, exploiting to the maximum extent, the available empirical data sets.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    A systematic search was performed in the three-dimensional parameter space and the vector value was selected that gives the best approximation of the observed proportion between land- and boat-based tourists and of the distribution of tourists in the four inhabited islands of the Galapagos Archipelago.

    “We performed a systematic search in this three-dimensional parameter space and we selected the vector value that gives us the best approximation of the observed proportion between land- and boat-based tourist and of the distribution of tourists in the four inhabited islands of the Galapagos Archipelago.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The verification process included examining every code line to confirm its function and correctness.

    “first, we examined every code line to confirm its function and correctness”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The verification process included building an oversimplified test model with only a few tourists and accommodation offers agents and closely examining the results, checking that every agent behaved in the appropriate manner.

    “third, we built an oversimplified test model with only a few tourists and accommodation offers agents and we closely examine the results, checking that every agent behaved in the appropriate manner.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The outputs from 10 independent runs of 15 years were averaged.

    “we averaged the outputs from 10 independent runs of 15 year.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § Introduction

    In ABMs, it is possible to strategically and controllably change agents' features to build 'what if' scenarios, study resulting changes in simulation output, and examine system behavior and agent learning.

    “In the ABM setting, it is possible to strategically and controllably change the agents' features to build a set of "what if" scenarios, study the resulting changes in the simulations output and examine system behavior and agent learning.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The validation process consists in verifying that the land- and boat-based distributions and the spatial distribution of tourist agents predicted by the model are in agreement with data sets from the Galapagos National Park and the Galapagos Tourism Monitoring Center.

    “the validation process consists in verifying that the land- and boat-based distributions and the spatial distribution of tourist agents, predicted by the model, is in agreement with data sets from the Galapagos National Park and the Galapagos Tourism Monitoring Center.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    A survey from the Tourism Association of Isabela shows that in 2007 nearly 12,000 tourists visited Isabela Island, which accounts for 8% of the total number of tourists visiting Galapagos in 2007.

    “A survey from the Tourism Association of Isabela (Arucaria XXI 2007) shows that in 2007 nearly 12,000 tourists visited Isabela Island, which accounts for 8% of the total number of tourists visiting Galapagos in 2007.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Arucaria XXI 2007

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § Model verification, Calibration and Validation

    The calibration is only a qualitative process because empirical data are known only approximately and there is no access to empirical time-series data.

    “The calibration is only a qualitative process because we know empirical data only approximately and we do not have access to empirical time-series data.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § ABM experiments

    Santa Cruz Island substantially influences tourism mobility around the archipelago and will still attract the largest portion of visiting tourists.

    “As such, Santa Cruz Island substantially influences tourism mobility around the archipelago and, therefore, will still attract the largest portion of the visiting tourists.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
38 of 38

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Tourist agents and market operator have unrestricted access to information and know exactly the characteristics of every accommodation offer.

    “Tourist agents and market operator have an unrestricted access to information. This means that in every moment they known exactly the characteristics of every accommodation offer. Even if it is known that the access to information in the real world tourism market could be asymmetric and not complete we make this assumption for the sake of model's simplicity.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Visitors typically book an accommodation offer based on second-hand sources such as international travel agencies and/or internet companies, and accept the representation without direct knowledge of what they are buying.

    “Another important aspect of the Galapagos touristic market is that visitors typically book an accommodation offer based on the choice of second-hand sources such as international travel agencies and/or companies that advertise on the internet. These organizations present to the international tourism market the Galapagos as a pristine, natural, and unique archipelago. The tourist accepts this”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Over the last 20-30 years, boat-based tourism dominated, but today the numbers of land- and boat-based tourists are nearly equal.

    “Over the last 20-30 years, boat-based tourism dominated, but today, the numbers of land- and boat-based tourists are nearly equal.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The stopover destinations, the number of stops, and the number of days of every cruise journey are strictly regulated by the Galapagos National Park and cannot be changed by the boats' owners.

    “Note that the stopover destinations, the number of stops, and the number of days of every cruise journey are strictly regulated by the Galapagos National Park and cannot be changed by the boats' owners.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The maximum number of cruise boats with regular operating permission is strictly regulated by the Galapagos National Park.

    “Note that the maximum number of cruise boats with regular operating permission is strictly regulated by the Galapagos National Park.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The total number of hotels is not so strictly regulated by the Galapagos National Park, so the number of hotels in the simulation can change.

    “The total number of hotels is not so strictly regulated by the Galapagos National Park so the number of hotels in the simulation can change.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Touristic activities are strictly delimited by the Galapagos National Park, so the authors know exactly how many activities are offered to tourists in every island.

    “Note that touristic activities are strictly delimited by the Galapagos National Park so we know exactly how many activities are offered to tourists in every island.”
7 of 7

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Tourism-collapse scenario has two different target counts

    Major

    The scenario is introduced as reducing annual visitors to 100,000, but its implementation says the generated count reaches 112,500 and then remains stable.

  • Table 1 uses conflicting averaging periods

    Minor

    The table caption says its fractions cover the last 10 simulation years, whereas the text introducing Table 1 says they are last-7-year averages.

  • National park fee is given as both $6 and $16

    Minor

    The scenario describes the existing national-tourist entrance fee as $6, while the model initialization says it deducts $16 for that fee.

3 of 3

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

22 of the 41 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. ARUCARIA XXI. (2007). SATISFACCIÓN DE TURISTAS QUE VISITAN PUERTO VILLAMIL , ISABELA . ISLA ISABELA - GALÁPAGOS JULIO 2007 (pp. 1-25).
  2. BENSTED-SMITH, R. (Ed.). (1999). A BIODIVERSITY VISION FOR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. Charles Darwin Foundation and World Wildlife Fund, Puerto Ayora, Ecuador.
  3. GEN, M. and Yu, X. (2010). Introduction to Evolutionary Algorithms. (R. Roy, Ed.) (second.). New York: Springer.

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Authors
Pizzitutti, F., Mena, C. F., & Walsh, S. J.
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
Publisher
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
Published
2014
Volume
17
Issue
1
ISSN
1460-7425 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.18564/jasss.2389
OpenAlex
W2101819236
Semantic Scholar
81bbef00a3ffc78a4106da3a62d9881eadadf194
Cited by
49
References
41
Citations by year
2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 6 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 1
FWCI
14.05
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
cc-by
Locations
  • Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • USC Research Bank (University of the Sunshine Coast) (submittedVersion)
  • UNC Libraries
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Multi-Agent Systems and Negotiation
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Keywords
Galápagos Islands, agent-based modeling, tourist accommodation, social-ecological systems, emergent patterns, what-if scenarios, tourism policy, evolutionary algorithms, market price dynamics, cruise tourism

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-13.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-13.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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