The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Testing Statistical Significance in Natural Language Processing
Open accessAbstract
Statistical significance testing is a standard statistical tool designed to ensure that experimental results are not coincidental.In this opinion/theoretical paper we discuss the role of statistical significance testing in Natural Language Processing (NLP) research.We establish the fundamental concepts of significance testing and discuss the specific aspects of NLP tasks, experimental setups and evaluation measures that affect the choice of significance tests in NLP research.Based on this discussion, we propose a simple practical protocol for statistical significance test selection in NLP setups and accompany this protocol with a brief survey of the most relevant tests.We then survey recent empirical papers published in ACL and TACL during 2017 and show that while our community assigns great value to experimental results, statistical significance testing is often ignored or misused.We conclude with a brief discussion of open issues that should be properly addressed so that this important tool can be applied in NLP research in a statistically sound manner 1 .
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This opinion/theoretical paper explains how to choose statistical significance tests for NLP and proposes a simple decision-tree protocol. A survey of ACL 2017 and TACL 2017 papers finds that significance testing is often ignored or misused.
Key findings
- In ACL 2017, of 180 experimental long papers, only 63 reported significance testing; 21 of those did not name the test, and 6 of the 42 that named a test used the wrong one.
- In TACL 2017, of 33 experimental papers, 15 did not include significance testing; all papers that reported significance and named the test used a valid test.
- Among papers needing replicability analysis, only 3 of 110 ACL papers and 4 of 19 TACL papers corrected for multiplicity.
- The paper proposes a decision tree: use parametric tests if the test statistic distribution is known; otherwise use sampling-based non-parametric tests for small data or sampling-free non-parametric tests for large data.
Methods
- The paper is an opinion/theoretical guide that reviews significance testing concepts, NLP evaluation measures, and prominent parametric and non-parametric tests.
- It surveys long papers from ACL 2017 (196 total, 180 experimental) and TACL 2017 Volume 5 Issue 1 (37 total, 33 experimental), focusing on empirical papers with at least one method comparison.
- The main analysis is descriptive counting of evaluation measures, significance test use, test names, wrong tests, and multiplicity corrections.
Limitations
- The paper states open issues: most significance tests assume independent observations, but NLP datasets often contain dependent examples, and the nature of these dependencies is hard to characterize or quantify.
- The paper states that reporting significance under cross-validation is challenging because fold test sets are not independent and may overlap; it proposes using replicability analysis with the K Bonferroni estimator but calls for further statistical investigation.
- Evident from the text: the empirical survey is limited to ACL 2017 long papers and TACL 2017, so the reported rates may not generalize to other venues or years.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
6 of 28 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisereasoning
McNemar's test is appropriate for binary classification tasks.
“This test is appropriate for binary classification tasks, and has been indeed used in such NLP works (e.g.sentiment classificaiton, (Blitzer et al., 2006;Ziser and Reichart, 2017)).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 2 sources checked- cites Blitzer et al., 2006 source
The Empirical Results section (Figures 5–6; page not available) shows that Blitzer et al. used McNemar’s test to compare NLP systems. However, those results concern part-of-speech tagging, not sentiment classification, and the paper does not state that the test is appropriate for binary classification tasks. The binary classification problems in §3.2 are pivot predictors, not the task for which the reported McNemar tests were used. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Ziser and Reichart, 2017 source
- Interpretationcitation
A statistically sound way to test for significance under cross-validation is to calculate the p-value for each fold separately and then perform replicability analysis for dependent datasets with K Bonferroni.
“One statistically sound way to test for significance when a cross-validation protocol is employed is hence to calculate the pvalue for each fold separately, and then to perform replicability analysis for dependent datasets with K Bonf erroni .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Dror et al., 2017 source
Section 4.1 recommends Bonferroni-based partial conjunction testing for dependent datasets, and the Framework Summary recommends reporting kBonferroni when independence cannot be assumed. Our copy does not establish that cross-validation folds should each receive a separate p-value or that folds should be treated as the datasets in this framework (searched: cross-validation, folds). (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
The Wilcoxon signed-rank test is applicable for most NLP setups.
“The test is actually applicable for most NLP setups and it has been used widely (e.g.(Søgaard et al., 2014;Søgaard, 2013;Yang and Mitchell, 2017)) due to its improved power compared to the sign test variants.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 3 sources checked- cites Søgaard et al., 2014 source
The Introduction says Wilcoxon’s test is used for comparisons across data sets, and Section 2 says rank-based tests are sometimes used in NLP, especially with few observations. This supports its use in some NLP setups, but not its applicability to most setups or widespread use. Section 2 does not compare its power with sign-test variants; it instead describes rank-based tests as relatively weak compared with bootstrap testing. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured - cites Søgaard, 2013
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Yang and Mitchell, 2017 source
Section 4.1.1 (Implementation Details; page unavailable) reports using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test to compare NLP models, so the paper provides an example of a Wilcoxon test in an NLP setup. It does not report using the signed-rank test or establish that signed-rank testing applies to most NLP setups; it also does not compare its power with sign-test variants. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingnone given
Seven of the 12 most common evaluation measures in ACL/TACL 2017 (Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F-score, Pearson and Spearman correlations, Perplexity) are not specific to NLP.
“Notice that seven of these measures: Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F-score, Pearson and Spearman correlations and Perplexity, are not specific to NLP.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The most commonly used evaluation measures in long ACL and TACL 2017 papers are the 12 measures in Table 1.
“In § 4 we analyze the (long) ACL and TACL 2017 papers, and observe that the most commonly used evaluation measures are the 12 measures that appear in Table 1.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data
In TACL 2017, all papers that reported significance and mentioned the name of the test used a valid test.
“and all the papers that report significance and mentioned the name of the test used a valid test.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Out of 180 experimental long papers of ACL 2017, only 63 included a statistical significance test.
“Out of the 180 experimental long papers of ACL 2017, only 63 papers included a statistical significance test.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Out of the 63 ACL 2017 papers that included a significance test, 21 did not mention the name of the test.
“Moreover, out of these 63 papers 21 did not mention the name of the significance test they employed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In ACL 2017, most of the papers that reported significance used the Student's t-test.
“in ACL 2017 most of the papers used the Student's t-test that assumes the data is i.i.d and that the test statistics are normally distributed.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In TACL 2017, 4 papers corrected for multiplicity out of 19 that should have done that.
“In TACL, the situation is slightly better with 4 papers correcting for multiplicity out of 19 that should have done that.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In ACL 2017, out of 110 papers that used multiple datasets, only 3 corrected for multiplicity, all using the Bonferroni correction.
“In ACL 2017, out of 110 papers that used multiple datasets only 3 corrected for multiplicity (all using the Bonferroni correction).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In TACL 2017, out of 33 experimental papers, 15 did not include statistical significance testing.
“In TACL, where the review process is presumably more strict and of higher quality, out of 33 experimental papers, 15 did not include statistical significance testing”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The TACL review process is more strict and of higher quality than the ACL review process.
- Findingown data
Of the 42 ACL 2017 papers that mentioned the name of the significance test, 6 used the wrong test according to the considerations discussed in §3.
“Of the 42 papers that did mention the name of the significance test, 6 used the wrong test according to the considerations discussed in § 3.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
In TACL 2017, the t-test is not as prominent.
“Gladly, in TACL, t-test is not as prominent.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Sampling-free tests have lower statistical power than sampling-based tests that consider the evaluation measure values.
“Consequently, their statistical power is lower than that of sampling-based tests that do consider the evaluation measure values.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
For evaluation measures such as F-score, BLEU, METEOR and ROUGE that do not compute means, the common practice is to assume that they are not normally distributed.
“For other evaluation measures, such as F-score, BLEU, METEOR and ROUGE that do not compute means, the common practice is to assume that they are not normally distributed (Yeh, 2000;Berg-Kirkpatrick et al., 2012).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Yeh, 2000 source
- cites Berg-Kirkpatrick et al., 2012
- Premisereasoning
If the distribution of the test statistic is known, the suitable significance test is parametric.
“If the distribution is known, then the suitable test will come from the family of parametric tests, that uses this distribution in order to achieve powerful results (i.e., low probability of making a type II error, see § 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisenone given
Sampling-free tests do not consider the actual values of the evaluation measures, only higher-level statistics of the results such as the number of cases in which each algorithm performs better than the other.
“Sampling-free tests do not consider the evaluation measure values, only higher level statistics of the results such as the number of cases in which each of the algorithms performs better than the other.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Sampling-based methods are not optimal candidates for very large datasets.
“Samplingbased methods are hence not the optimal candidates for very large datasets.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisereasoning
Sampling-based tests compensate for the lack of distributional assumptions over the data with re-sampling, a computationally intensive procedure.
“Sampling-based tests, however, compensate for the lack of distributional assumptions over the data with re-sampling -a computationally intensive procedure.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Parametric tests have stronger statistical power compared to non-parametric tests when the distribution assumption holds.
“when it holds, these parametric tests have stronger statis-tical power compared to non-parametric tests that do not make this assumption (Fisher, 1937).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Fisher, 1937
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
Accuracy measures in structured tasks tend to be normally distributed when the number of individual predictions is large enough.
“That is, accuracy measures in structured tasks tend to be normally distributed when the number individual predictions (e.g.number of words in a sentence when considering sentencelevel UAS) is large enough.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
For large enough data, the sampling distribution of a certain function of Pearson's correlation coefficient follows the Student's t-distribution with n-2 degrees of freedom.
“The authors prove that for large enough data, the sampling distribution of a certain function of the Pearson's correlation coefficient follows the Student's t-distribution with n -2 degrees of freedom.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Sethuraman, 1963
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Cochran's Q test generalizes McNemar's test for multi-class classification setups.
“The Cochran's Q test (Cochran, 1950) generalizes the McNemar's test for multi-class classification setups.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Cochran, 1950 source
- Premisenone given
The i.i.d. and normality assumptions of the t-test are not the case in many NLP applications.
“As discussed in § 3 this is not the case in many NLP applications.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
The unique structured nature of natural language data is reflected in specialized evaluation measures such as BLEU, ROUGE, UAS and LAS.
“However, the unique structured nature of natural language data is reflected in specialized evaluation measures such as BLEU (machine translation, (Papineni et al., 2002)), ROUGE (extractive summarization, (Lin, 2004)), UAS and LAS (dependency parsing, (Kübler et al., 2009)).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Papineni et al., 2002
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Lin, 2004
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Kübler et al., 2009
- Premisecitation
Many sentences in the Europarl parallel corpus are taken from the same parliament discussion.
“many sentences in the Europarl parallel corpus (Koehn, 2005) that is very popular in the machine translation literature are taken from the same parliament discussion.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Koehn, 2005
- Premisecitation
Approximate randomization tests are used in practice, drawing a pre-defined limited number of permutations without replacement.
“In practice, approximate randomization tests are used where a pre-defined limited number of permutations are drawn from the space of all possible permutations, without replacements (see, e.g.(Riezler and Maxwell, 2005) in the context of machine translation).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Riezler and Maxwell, 2005
- Premisenone given
Many NLP standard evaluation sets consist of sentences coming from the same source or document or written by the same author.
“For example, many NLP standard evaluation sets consist of sentences coming from the same source (e.g.newspaper) or document (e.g.newspaper article) or written by the same author.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisenone given
The statistical significance tests commonly used in NLP setups share an assumption that data samples are independent and identically distributed.
“An assumption shared by the statistical significance tests described in § 3, that are commonly used in NLP setups, is that the data samples are independent and identically distributed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisereasoning
Most NLP datasets consist of dependent data points.
“most NLP datasets consist of dependent data points.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisereasoning
Certain properties of NLP datasets and the community's evaluation standards affect the way significance testing should be performed.
“Moreover, certain properties of NLP datasets and the community's evaluation standards also affect the way significance testing should be performed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisereasoning
Permutation tests are computationally intensive due to the exponentially large number of possible permutations.
“Obviously, permutation tests are computationally intensive due to the exponentially large number of possible permutations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisereasoning
The bootstrap test is less effective for small test sets.
“The test is less effective for small test sets, as it assumes that the test set distribution does not deviate too much from the population distribution.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
It is challenging to report statistical significance when cross-validation is employed.
“While cross-validation is surely a desired practice, it is challenging to report statistical significance when it is employed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisereasoning
Sampling-based methods take the opposite approach to sampling-free tests, trading efficiency for statistical power.
“Sampling-based methods take the opposite approach.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The i.i.d. assumption is rarely true in NLP setups.
“This assumption, however, is rarely true in NLP setups.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisereasoning
The Wilcoxon signed-rank test is more powerful than the sign test and its variants.
“The Wilcoxon signed-rank test makes use of such a rank and hence, while it does not consider the evaluation measure values, it is more powerful than the sign test and its variants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Wilcoxon, 1945 source
- Premisecitation
When distributional assumptions of parametric tests are violated, sampling-based tests have more statistical power than parametric tests.
“As noted in (Riezler and Maxwell, 2005), in the case where the distributional assumptions of the parametric tests are violated, sampling-based tests have more statistical power than parametric tests.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Riezler and Maxwell, 2005
- Interpretationreasoning
Dependence between test examples violates the conditions under which the theoretical guarantees of the various tests were developed.
“This dependence between test examples violates the conditions under which the theoretical guarantees of the various tests were developed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
An independence assumption between sentences in these corpora is not likely to hold.
“An independence assumption between the sentences in these corpora is not likely to hold.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 29
- May combine two claims. 17
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationDror et al. (2017) proposes a statistical significance framework for multiple comparisons performed with dependent test sets, using the K Bonferroni estimator for the number of datasets with significant effect.
“This paper proposes a statistical significance framework for multiple comparisons performed with dependent test sets, using the K Bonf erroni estimator for the number of datasets with significant effect.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites Dror et al., 2017 source
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataA large portion of the surveyed long ACL and TACL 2017 papers do not test the significance of their results or use incorrect tests for this purpose.
“Particularly, a large portion of the surveyed papers do not test the significance of their results, or use incorrect tests for this purpose.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn the surveyed long ACL and TACL 2017 papers, statistical significance testing is often ignored or misused.
“We then survey recent empirical papers published in ACL and TACL during 2017 and show that while our community assigns great value to experimental results, statistical significance testing is often ignored or misused.”
- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
“Our analysis reveals that there is still a room for improvement in the way statistical significance is used in papers published in our top-tier publication venues.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Also stated in: § 1 Introduction · plain
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Findingnone givenIn a considerable number of papers, the word significant was used as a synonym for words such as important, considerable, meaningful, substantial, major, and notable.
“We noticed that in a considerable number of papers this word was used as a synonym for words such as important, considerable, meaningful, substantial, major, notable etc.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn ACL 2017 and TACL 2017, the variety of different NLP tasks is large: 36 tasks in ACL 2017 and 15 tasks in TACL.
“In both conference and journal papers, the variety of different NLP tasks is quite large: 36 tasks in ACL 2017 and 15 tasks in TACL.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn ACL 2017, 23 papers performed cross validation; in TACL 2017, 5 papers performed cross validation.
“| # papers that perform | 23 | 5 |”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Findingnone givenIt is customary in NLP papers to create a number of random splits of the experimental corpus into train, development and test portions.
“To increase the validity of reported results, it is customary in NLP papers to create a number of random splits of the experimental corpus into train, development and test portions (see Table 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingnone givenSome papers report the fraction of folds for which one algorithm was better than the others.
“Some papers also report the fraction of the folds for which one algorithm was better than the others.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn ACL 2017, 24 different evaluation measures were used; in TACL 2017, 19 different evaluation measures were used.
“| # different evaluation | 24 | 19 |”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe sign test has limited practical implications because it only checks whether algorithm A is better than B and ignores the extent of the difference.
“The sign test has limited practical implications since it only checks if algorithm A is better than B and ignores the extent of the difference.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisereasoningBLEU, ROUGE and METEOR are designed for tasks where there are several possible outputs, a characteristic property of several NLP tasks.
“While UAS and LAS are in fact accuracy measures, BLEU, ROUGE and METEOR are designed for tasks where there are several possible outputs -a characteristic property of several NLP tasks.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Premisenone givenAll 12 most common evaluation measures return a real number, either in [0,1] or in R.
“All 12 measures return a real number, either in [0, 1] or in R.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Premisenone givenThe Central Limit Theorem establishes that when independent random variables are added, their properly normalized sum tends toward a normal distribution even if the original variables themselves are not normally distributed.
“CLT establishes that, in most situations, when independent random variables are added, their properly normalized sum tends toward a normal distribution even if the original variables themselves are not normally distributed.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisereasoningThe other five most common evaluation measures (BLEU, ROUGE, METEOR, UAS, LAS) are unique measures developed for NLP applications.
“The other five measures: BLEU (Papineni et al., 2002), ROUGE (Lin, 2004), METEOR (Banerjee and Lavie, 2005), UAS and LAS (Kübler et al., 2009), are unique measures that were developed for NLP applications.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Papineni et al., 2002
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Lin, 2004
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Banerjee and Lavie, 2005
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe paired Student's t-test assesses whether the population means of two sets of measurements differ from each other, and is based on the assumption that both samples come from a normal distribution.
“This test assesses whether the population means of two sets of measurements differ from each other, and is based on the assumption that both samples come from a normal distribution (Fisher, 1937).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Fisher, 1937
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationBLEU and METEOR are standard evaluation measures for machine translation, ROUGE for extractive summarization, and UAS and LAS for dependency parsing.
“BLEU and METEOR are standard evaluation measures for machine translation, ROUGE for extractive summarization, and UAS and LAS for dependency parsing.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites Papineni et al., 2002
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Lin, 2004
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites Banerjee and Lavie, 2005
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisereasoningNon-parametric tests may be less powerful than parametric counterparts, but they do not make unjustified assumptions and are statistically sound even when the test statistic distribution is unknown.
“While non-parametric tests may be less powerful than their parametric counterparts, they do not make unjustified assumptions and are hence statistically sound even when the test statistic distribution is unknown.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisereasoningIf the distribution of the test statistic is unknown, non-parametric tests should be used.
“If the distribution is unknown then any assumption made by a test may lead to erroneous conclusions and hence we should rely on non-parametric tests that do not make any such assumption.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
PremisereasoningIf one algorithm is consistently better than another on test sets, it should also be better on future, currently unknown, datasets.
“reasoning that if one algorithm is consistently better than the other, hopefully with a sufficiently large margin, then it should also be better on future, currently unknown, datasets.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: The paper's model of an NLP paper is that it presents a new algorithm and hypothesizes that this algorithm is better than a previous strong algorithm serving as the baseline.
May combine two claims.
PremisereasoningParametric tests are more statistically powerful and less computationally intensive compared to non-parametric counterparts.
“These tests are more statistically powerful and less computationally intensive compared to their non-parametric counterparts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).
Premisenone givenThe probability of falsely concluding that one algorithm is better than another should be very small.
“we have to make sure that the probability of falsely concluding that one algorithm is better than the other is very small.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe WSJ Penn Treebank corpus consists of 2,499 articles from a three year Wall Street Journal collection of 98,732 stories.
“the popular WSJ Penn Treebank corpus (Marcus et al., 1993) consists of 2,499 articles from a three year Wall Street Journal (WSJ) collection of 98,732 stories.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Marcus et al., 1993
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
PremisereasoningSampling-based tests consider actual values of evaluation measures and are not restricted to higher order properties such as ranks, hence their statistical power is higher.
“These tests consider the actual values of the evaluation measures and are not restricted to higher order properties (e.g.ranks) of the observed values -their statistical power is hence higher.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningThe impact of dependence between test examples on results is hard to quantify.
“The impact of this phenomenon on our results is hard to quantify, partly because it is hard to quantify the nature of the dependence between test set examples in NLP datasets.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationApproximate randomization can be used for test sets of more than 20 points.
“To overcome this, approximate randomization can be used, as was done, e.g., by Yeh (2000) for test sets of more than 20 points.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites Yeh (2000) source
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisereasoningFor very large datasets, sampling-free tests are less powerful but computationally feasible.
“The other alternative for very large datasets are sampling-free tests that are less powerful but are computationally feasible.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Premisenone givenThe experimental differences between two algorithms might be coincidental.
“Yet, the experimental differences might be coincidental.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Premisenone givenThe distribution of NLP evaluation measures is of great importance to statistical significance testing.
“The distribution of these measures is of great importance to statistical significance testing.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Premisenone givenThe final reported result in cross-validation is typically the average of the test set results across the splits.
“The final reported result is typically the average of the test set results across the splits.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone givenThe nature of dependencies among NLP data points is hard to characterize, let alone quantify.
“Unfortunately, the nature of these dependencies is hard to characterize, let alone to quantify.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Premisenone givenStatistical significance testing of each individual comparison is the basic building block of replicability analysis, and its accurate performance is a pre-condition for any multiple dataset analysis.
“Statistical significance testing of each individual comparison is the basic building block of replicability analysis -its accurate performance is a pre-condition for any multiple dataset analysis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Premisenone givenSampling-free tests trade statistical power for efficiency.
“As noted above, sampling-free tests trade statistical power for efficiency.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningSome sentences in the WSJ Penn Treebank come from the same article, were written by the same author, or were reviewed before publication by the same editor.
“Obviously, some of the sentences included in the corpus come from the same article, were written by the same author or were reviewed before publication by the same editor.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Premisenone givenThe exact permutation test requires generation of all 2^n data permutations, where n is the number of points in the dataset.
“the exact permutation test, for example, requires the generation of all 2 n data permutations (where n is the number of points in the dataset).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Premisenone givenThe Student's t-test assumes the data is i.i.d. and the test statistics are normally distributed.
“the Student's t-test that assumes the data is i.i.d and that the test statistics are normally distributed.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
InterpretationreasoningThe higher computational demand of some non-parametric tests is the result of their sampling process.
“while the higher computational demand of some non-parametric tests is the result of their sampling process.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningThe stronger statistical power of parametric tests stems from the stronger parametric assumptions they make.
“The stronger statistical power of parametric tests stems from the stronger, parametric assumptions they make”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Premisenone givenSampling-based methods are computationally intensive and can be intractable for large datasets, even with modern computing power.
“Clearly, Sampling-based methods are computationally intensive and can be intractable for large datasets, even with modern computing power.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe test sets of different folds in cross-validation are not independent and their content is likely to overlap.
“Particularly, the test sets of the different folds are obviously not independent -their content is even likely to overlap.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The authors state this as an assumption.
The paper's model of an NLP paper is that it presents a new algorithm and hypothesizes that this algorithm is better than a previous strong algorithm serving as the baseline.
“our (somewhat simplified) model of an NLP paper is one that presents a new algorithm and makes the hypothesis that this algorithm is better than a previous strong algorithm, which serves as the baseline.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Higher values of the evaluation measure are better.
“Without loss of generality, we assume that higher values of the measure are better.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In practice, the t-test is often applied with evaluation measures such as accuracy, UAS and LAS, which compute the mean number of correct predictions per input example.
“In practice, t-test is often applied with evaluation measures such as accuracy, UAS and LAS, that compute the mean number of correct predictions per input example.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The sample of ACL 2017 and TACL 2017 papers is representative of recent top venue NLP papers.
“We analyzed the long papers from the proceedings of the 55th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL17, (Barzilay and Kan, 2017)), a total of 196 papers, and the papers from the Transactions of the Association of Computational Linguistics journal (TACL17), Volume 5, Issue 1, a total of 37 papers.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The TACL review process is more strict and of higher quality than the ACL review process.
“In TACL, where the review process is presumably more strict and of higher quality”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The standard statistical test for comparing classifiers on paired data is McNemar's test.
“The standard statistical test for comparing classifiers on paired data is McNemar's test (Dietterich, 1998; Dror et al., 2018), which uses the numbers of items where the models disagree”
From With Little Power Comes Great Responsibility (2020) · cites this paper as Dror et al., 2018
Section 3.2.2 says McNemar’s test is designed for paired nominal observations and is appropriate for binary classification. The claim omits that restriction: the same passage identifies Cochran’s Q as the generalization for multiclass classification. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredPointwise 95% percentile bootstrap intervals are used for each paired mean difference, resampling 944 questions on ASQA and 271 papers on QASPER with replacement.
“We use pointwise 95% percentile bootstrap intervals for each paired mean difference (Dror et al., 2018), resampling 944 questions on ASQA and 271 papers on QASPER with replacement.”
From The Attribution-Compression Frontier in Retrieval-Augmented Generation (2026) · cites this paper as Dror et al., 2018
Section 3.2.2 (page unavailable) describes paired bootstrap sampling with replacement to approximate a statistic’s sampling distribution. It discusses p-values, not pointwise 95% percentile intervals for paired mean differences. The ASQA and QASPER sample sizes describe the citing authors’ procedure, rather than a finding attributed to Dror et al. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe study evaluated statistical robustness by generating 10,000 bootstrap-resampled versions of the test set and computing standard deviations of all performance metrics.
“We evaluate the statistical robustness of our results by generating 10,000 bootstrap-resampled versions of the test set (Dror et al., 2018) and computing the standard deviation of all performance metrics.”
From Fact or Fiction: Verifying Scientific Claims (2020) · cites this paper as Dror et al., 2018
For Judge-EM, McNemar's test was used, appropriate for paired nominal data [8].
“For Judge-EM, we used McNemar's test , which is appropriate for paired nominal data [8].”
From Replace, Don't Expand: Mitigating Context Dilution in Multi-Hop RAG via Fixed-Budget Evidence Assembly (2025) · cites this paper as [8]
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Modeling Source Syntax for Neural Machine Translation
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Neural Structural Correspondence Learning for Domain Adaptation
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Self-citationSequence-to-Dependency Neural Machine Translation
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Fact or Fiction: Verifying Scientific Claims
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“We evaluate the statistical robustness of our results by generating 10,000 bootstrap-resampled versions of the test set (Dror et al., 2018) and computing the standard deviation of all performance metrics.”
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Measuring and improving consistency in pretrained language models
Elazar, Y., Kassner, N., Ravfogel, S., Ravichander, A., Hovy, E., Schütze, H., & Goldberg, Y. (2021) · Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics · doi:10.1162/tacl_a_00410 · Cited by 220 · see citing works
Best practices for the human evaluation of automatically generated text
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“This assumption is difficult to guarantee in NLP research (Dror et al., 2018), if only because different systems may rely on the same training data.”
BackgroundRe-evaluating Evaluation in Text Summarization
Bhandari, M., Gour, P. N., Ashfaq, A., Liu, P., & Neubig, G. (2020) · Proceedings of the 2020 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP) · doi:10.18653/v1/2020.emnlp-main.751 · Cited by 148 · see citing works
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We Need to Talk about Standard Splits
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With Little Power Comes Great Responsibility
Card, D., Henderson, P., Khandelwal, U., Jia, R., Mahowald, K., & Jurafsky, D. (2020) · Proceedings of the 2020 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (EMNLP) · doi:10.18653/v1/2020.emnlp-main.745 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Scientific Credibility of Machine Translation Research: A Meta-Evaluation of 769 Papers
Marie, B., Fujita, A., & Rubino, R. (2021) · Proceedings of the 59th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics and the 11th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing (Volume 1: Long Papers) · doi:10.18653/v1/2021.acl-long.566 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Equity Beyond Bias in Language Technologies for Education
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Evaluation Examples are not Equally Informative: How should that change NLP Leaderboards?
Rodriguez, P., Barrow, J., Hoyle, A. M., Lalor, J. P., Jia, R., & Boyd-Graber, J. (2021) · Proceedings of the 59th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics and the 11th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing (Volume 1: Long Papers) · doi:10.18653/v1/2021.acl-long.346 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Latent Relation Language Models
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How Large Language Models are Transforming Machine-Paraphrase Plagiarism
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SciFact-Open: Towards open-domain scientific claim verification
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The statistical advantage of automatic NLG metrics at the system level
Wei, J., & Jia, R. (2021) · Proceedings of the 59th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics and the 11th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing (Volume 1: Long Papers) · doi:10.18653/v1/2021.acl-long.533 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“Assuming the bootstrap (Efron and Tibshirani, 1993) which is a common procedure in NLP (Dror et al., 2018), we can estimate the expectation quantities in the decomposition.”
MethodGekhman, Z., Oved, N., Keller, O., Szpektor, I., & Reichart, R. (2023) · Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics · doi:10.1162/tacl_a_00549 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationEvaluating automated entity extraction with respect to drug and non-drug treatment strategies.
Guo, J., Blake, C., & Guan, Y. (2019) · Journal of Biomedical Informatics · doi:10.1016/j.jbi.2019.103177 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Dhrangadhariya, A., & Müller, H. (2022) · Proceedings of the 21st Workshop on Biomedical Language Processing · doi:10.18653/v1/2022.bionlp-1.34 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Lahmy, M., & Yozevitch, R. (2025) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.10787 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
“• Methodology: For binary answer correctness (Judge-EM), we used McNemar’s test , which is appropriate for paired nominal data [8].”
Stop Guessing When to Stop Testing: Efficient Model Evaluation with Just Enough Data
Arviv, O., Greenewald, K., Perlitz, Y., Mulian, H., Shmueli-Scheuer, M., & Choshen, L. (2026) · Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: ACL 2026 · doi:10.18653/v1/2026.findings-acl.43
“The standard statistical framework for this comes from the theory of hypothesis testing and confidence intervals (CIs) (Dror et al., 2018).”
Measuring all the noises of LLM Evals
Wang, S. I. (2025) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.21326
- Authors
- Dror, R., Baumer, G., Shlomov, S., & Reichart, R.
- Affiliations
- Technion – Israel Institute of Technology (IL)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the 56th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers)
- Published
- 2018
- Pages
- 1383-1392
- OpenAlex
- W2798935874
- Semantic Scholar
- d10df96b3fb0ab5c6b1d0cc22c7400d0acccc3cc
- Cited by
- 384
- References
- 43
- Citations by year
- 2026: 59 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 56 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 78 · 2020: 55 · 2019: 33 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 17.19
- Type
- conference paper
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Natural Language Processing Techniques
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Topic Modeling
- Social Sciences › General Social Sciences › Computational and Text Analysis Methods
- Keywords
- statistical significance testing, hypothesis testing, evaluation metrics, experimental design, misuse of statistics, reproducibility
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-22.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-22.
Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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