Analyzing cause and effect in environmental assessments: using weighted evidence from the literature
Abstract
Sound decision making in environmental research and management requires an understanding of causal relationships between stressors and ecological responses. However, demonstrating cause–effect relationships in natural systems is challenging because of difficulties with natural variability, performing experiments, lack of replication, and the presence of confounding influences. Thus, even the best-designed study may not establish causality. We describe a method that uses evidence available in the extensive published ecological literature to assess support for cause–effect hypotheses in environmental investigations. Our method, called Eco Evidence, is a form of causal criteria analysis—a technique developed by epidemiologists in the 1960s—who faced similar difficulties in attributing causation. The Eco Evidence method is an 8-step process in which the user conducts a systematic review of the evidence for one or more cause–effect hypotheses to assess the level of support for an overall question. In contrast to causal criteria analyses in epidemiology, users of Eco Evidence use a subset of criteria most relevant to environmental investigations and weight each piece of evidence according to its study design. Stronger studies contribute more to the assessment of causality, but weaker evidence is not discarded. This feature is important because environmental evidence is often scarce. The outputs of the analysis are a guide to the strength of evidence for or against the cause–effect…
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The evidence evaluation used rules adapted from Norris et al. (2012) and Greet et al. (2011) and a four-element conclusion framework from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
“To evaluate the results, we applied rules adapted from Norris et al. (2012) and Greet et al. (2011), and adapted the four-element conclusion framework developed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services as follows:”
From Evidence‐based evaluation of the cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration (2016) · cites this paper as Norris et al. (2012)
Studies associated with different disciplines had selected various subsets of Hill's criteria.
“Studies associated with different disciplines had selected various subsets of Hill's criteria, (e.g., Norris et al. 2012).”
From Evidence‐based evaluation of the cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration (2016) · cites this paper as Norris et al. 2012
Evidence-based assessment of literature allowed a much larger proportion of the body of evidence to be considered than would a quantitative meta-analysis.
“Like others have reported (Greet et al. 2011, Norris et al. 2012, Webb et al. 2012), evidence-based assessment of literature allowed a much larger proportion of the body of evidence to be considered than would a quantitative meta-analysis.”
From Evidence‐based evaluation of the cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration (2016) · cites this paper as Norris et al. 2012
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- Authors
- Norris, R. H., Webb, J. A., Nichols, S. J., Stewardson, M. J., & Harrison, E. T.
- Affiliations
- University of Canberra (AU)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Norris, R. H.
- Webb, J. A.
- Nichols, S. J.
- Stewardson, M. J.
- Harrison, E. T.
- Venue
- Freshwater Science
- Publisher
- University of Chicago Press
- Published
- 2012-03
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 5-21
- ISSN
- 2161-9549 (ISSN-L)
- 2161-9565
- OpenAlex
- W2127674064
- Cited by
- 113
- References
- 63
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 10 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 12.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Freshwater Science (publishedVersion)
- University of Canberra Research Portal (submittedVersion)
- BioOne Complete (BioOne) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Social Impact Assessments
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Evaluation and Performance Assessment
- Keywords
- causal inference, causal relationship, evidence synthesis, systematic reviews, quality of evidence, knowledge gaps, environmental management decision-making, evidence-based decision making
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