Anticipation of COVID-19 Vaccines Reduces Social Distancing
Open accessAbstract
We show that the anticipation of COVID-19 vaccines reduces voluntary social distancing. In a large-scale preregistered survey experiment with a representative sample, we study whether providing information about the safety, effectiveness, and availability of COVID- 19 vaccines affects compliance with public health guidelines. We find that vaccine information reduces peoples’ voluntary social distancing, adherence to hygiene guidelines, and their willingness to stay at home. Vaccine information induces people to believe in a swifter return to normal life and puts their vigilance at ease. The results indicate an important behavioral drawback of the successful vaccine development: An increased focus on vaccines can lead to bad health behaviors and accelerate the spread of the virus. The results imply that, as vaccinations start and the end of the pandemic feels closer, existing policies aimed at increasing social distancing will be less effective and stricter policies might be required.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The bias may have arisen from vaccinated persons having a higher social contact rate or adhering less to safety measures than unvaccinated persons.
“This bias may have risen from vaccinated persons having a higher social contact rate or adhering less to safety measures than unvaccinated persons31–33.”
From Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar (2022) · cites this paper as [33]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Still being checked.
Research works printed but not linked: 29
- Ajzenman, N., Cavalcanti, T., & Da Mata, D. (2020). More than words: Leaders' speech and risky behavior during a pandemic. Available at SSRN 3582908.
- Andersson, O., Wengström, E., Carlsson, F., Campos-Mercade, P., & Schneider, F. (2020). The Individual Welfare Costs of Stay at Home Policies. Available at SSRN 3641781.
- Armona, L., Fuster, A., & Zafar, B. (2019). Home price expectations and behaviour: Evidence from a randomized information experiment. The Review of Economic Studies, 86(4), 1371-1410.
- Bavel, Jay J. Van, Katherine Baicker, Paulo S. Boggio, Valerio Capraro, Aleksandra Cichocka, Mina Cikara, Molly J. Crockett, Alia J. Crum, Karen M. Douglas, James N.Druckman, John Drury, Oeindrila Dube, Naomi Ellemers, Eli J. Finkel, James H. Fowler,Michele Gelfand, Shihui Han, S. Alexander Haslam, Jolanda Jetten, Shinobu Kitayama,Dean Mobbs, Lucy E. Napper, Dominic J. Packer, Gordon Pennycook, Ellen Peters,Richard E. Petty, David G. Rand, Stephen D. Reicher, Simone Schnall, Azim Shariff,Linda J. Skitka, Sandra Susan Smith, Cass R. Sunstein, Nassim Tabri, Joshua A. Tucker,Sander van der Linden, Paul van Lange, Kim A. Weeden, Michael J. A. Wohl, Jamil Zaki,Sean R. Zion, and Robb Willer. (2020). 'Using social and behavioural science to supportCOVID-19 pandemic response.' Nature Human Behaviour, 4(5): 460-471.
- Betsch, Cornelia, Frank Renkewitz, Tilmann Betsch, Corina Ulshöfer. 2010. The influence of vaccine-critical websites on perceiving vaccination risks. Journal of Health Psychology, 15(3): 44655.
- Betsch, Cornelia. (2020). How behavioural science data helps mitigate the COVID-19 crisis. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(5), 438-438.
- Betsch, Cornelia, Robert Böhm, Lars Korn, and Cindy Holtmann. (2017). On the benefits of explaining herd immunity in vaccine advocacy. Nature Human Behaviour, 1(3): 1-6
- Betsch, C., Korn, L., Sprengholz, P., Felgendreff, L., Eitze, S., Schmid, P., & Böhm, R. (2020). Social and behavioral consequences of mask policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 21851-21853.
- Brewer, Noel T., Gretchen B. Chapman, Alexander J. Rothman, Julie Leask, and Allison Kempe. 2017. Increasing vaccination: Putting psychological science into action. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 18(3): 149-207.
- Cohn, A., Engelmann, J., Fehr, E., & Maréchal, M. A. (2015). Evidence for countercyclical risk aversion: An experiment with financial professionals. American Economic Review, 105(2), 860-85.
- Conner, M., & Norman, P. (2005). Predicting health behaviour. McGraw-Hill Education (UK).
- Fetzer, T., Hensel, L., Hermle, J., & Roth, C. (2020). Coronavirus perceptions and economic anxiety. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1-36.
- Galasso, Vincenzo, Vincent Pons, Paola Profeta, Michael Becher, Sylvain Brouard, Martial Foucault. (2020). Gender differences in COVID-19 attitudes and behavior: Panel evidence from eight countries. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(44): 27285-27291.
- Haaland, I., & Roth, C. (2020). Labor market concerns and support for immigration. Journal of Public Economics, 191, 104256.
- Harris, K. M., Maurer, J., & Kellermann, A. L. (2010). Influenza Vaccine - Safe, Effective, and Mistrusted. New England Journal of Medicine, 363(23), 2183-2185.
- Haushofer, Johannes and Ernst Fehr. (2014). On the psychology of poverty. Science, 344(6186), 862-867.
- Helweg-Larsen, M., & Shepperd, J. A. (2001). Do moderators of the optimistic bias affect personal or target risk estimates? A review of the literature. Personality and social psychology review, 5(1), 74-95.
- Korn, L., Böhm, R., Meier, N. W., & Betsch, C. (2020). Vaccination as a social contract. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(26), 1489014899.
- Krammer, F. (2020). SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in development. Nature, 586(7830), 516-527.
- Lerner, J. S., Li, Y., Valdesolo, P., & Kassam, K. S. (2015). Emotion and decision making. Annual review of psychology, 66.
- Makris, M., & Toxvaerd, F. (2020). Great Expectations: Social Distancing in Anticipation of Pharmaceutical Innovations (No. 2097). Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Maurer, J. (2009). Who has a clue to preventing the flu? Unravelling supply and demand effects on the take-up of influenza vaccinations. Journal of Health Economics, 28(3), 704-717.
- Maurer, J., Harris, K. M., & Lurie, N. (2009). Reducing missed opportunities to vaccinate adults against influenza: What is realistic? In Archives of Internal Medicine 169(17), 1633-1634).
- Milkman, K. L., Beshears, J., Choi, J. J., Laibson, D., & Madrian, B. C. (2011). Using implementation intentions prompts to enhance influenza vaccination rates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(26), 10415-10420.
- Mischel, W., Shoda, Y., & Rodriguez, M. I. (1989). Delay of gratification in children. Science, 244(4907), 933-938.
- Müller, S., & Rau, H. A. (2020). Economic preferences and compliance in the social stress test of the COVID-19 crisis. Journal of Public Economics, 104322.
- Roth, C., & Wohlfart, J. (2020). How do expectations about the macroeconomy affect personal expectations and behavior? Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(4), 731-748.
- Schilbach, Frank. (2019). Alcohol and self-control: A field experiment in India. American Economic Review, 109(4): 1290-1322.
- Tonin, Mirco. 2017. A Survey Experiment on Information, Inattention and Online Privacy. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 140: 1-17.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar
Chemaitelly, H., Tang, P., Hasan, M. R., AlMukdad, S., Yassine, H. M., Benslimane, F. M., Al Khatib, H. A., Coyle, P., Ayoub, H. H., Al Kanaani, Z., et al. (2021) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2114114 · Cited by 831 · see citing works
BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Qatar
Tang, P., Hasan, M. R., Chemaitelly, H., Yassine, H. M., Benslimane, F. M., Al Khatib, H. A., AlMukdad, S., Coyle, P., Ayoub, H. H., Al Kanaani, Z., et al. (2021) · Nature Medicine · doi:10.1038/s41591-021-01583-4 · Cited by 450 · see citing works
Duration of mRNA vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants in Qatar
Chemaitelly, H., Ayoub, H. H., AlMukdad, S., Coyle, P., Tang, P., Yassine, H. M., Al-Khatib, H. A., Smatti, M. K., Hasan, M. R., Al-Kanaani, Z., et al. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30895-3 · Cited by 228 · see citing works
The importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout
Gozzi, N., Bajardi, P., & Perra, N. (2021) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009346 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Risk compensation during COVID-19: The impact of face mask usage on social distancing.
Luckman, A., Zeitoun, H., Isoni, A., Loomes, G., Vlaev, I., Powdthavee, N., & Read, D. (2021) · Journal of Experimental Psychology Applied · doi:10.1037/xap0000382 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Behavioral brittleness: the case for strategic behavioral public policy
Schmidt, R., & Stenger, K. (2021) · Behavioural Public Policy · doi:10.1017/bpp.2021.16 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Ochieng, C., Anand, S., Mutwiri, G., Szafron, M., & Alphonsus, K. B. (2021) · Vaccines · doi:10.3390/vaccines9121445 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Chemaitelly, H., Ayoub, H. H., AlMukdad, S., Tang, P., Hasan, M. R., Yassine, H. M., Khatib, H. A. A., Smatti, M. K., Coyle, P., Kanaani, Z. A., et al. (2022) · doi:10.1101/2022.02.07.22270568 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
A model for choice infrastructure: looking beyond choice architecture in Behavioral Public Policy
Schmidt, R. (2022) · Behavioural Public Policy · doi:10.1017/bpp.2021.44 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Wu, X., Lü, Y., & Jiang, B. (2023) · Landscape and Urban Planning · doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2023.104690 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Lesny, P., Anderson, M., Cloherty, G., Stec, M., Haase‐Fielitz, A., Haarhaus, M. L., Santos-Araújo, C., Lucas, C., Macario, F. J. G. R. M., & Haase, M. (2021) · Journal of Nephrology · doi:10.1007/s40620-021-01076-0 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Correcting Perceived Social Distancing Norms to Combat COVID-19
Allen, J. E., Mahumane, A., Riddell, J., Rosenblat, T., Yang, D., & Yu, H. (2021) · National Bureau of Economic Research · doi:10.3386/w28651 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Estimating Vaccine Efficacy Against Transmission via Effect on Viral Load
Kennedy‐Shaffer, L., Kahn, R. J., & Lipsitch, M. (2021) · Epidemiology · doi:10.1097/ede.0000000000001415 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Viskupič, F., Wiltse, D. L., & Meyer, B. A. (2022) · The Social Science Journal · doi:10.1080/03623319.2022.2049557 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Abao, R. P., Estuar, M. R. J. E., Cataluna, A. A. M., Aureus, J. P., & Mapua, D. C. (2021) · International Conference on Social Networks Analysis, Management and Security (SNAMS) · doi:10.1109/snams53716.2021.9732116 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Kim, N.-G., Jang, H., Noh, S., Hong, J.-H., Jung, J., Shin, J., Shin, Y., & Kim, J. (2022) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph19148535 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Does Expert Information Affect Citizens' Attitudes Toward Corona Policies? Evidence from Germany
Fuest, C., Immel, L., Neumeier, F., & Peichl, A. (2021) · European Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102350 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Correcting Misperceptions about Support for Social Distancing to Combat COVID-19
Allen, J. E., Mahumane, A., Riddell, J., Rosenblat, T., Yang, D., & Yu, H. (2023) · Economic Development and Cultural Change · doi:10.1086/727192 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: evidence across leading countries
Kim, D., & Lee, Y. J. (2021) · doi:10.47004/wp.cem.2021.3821 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Love Thy Neighbour? Perceived Community Abidance and Private Compliance to COVID-19 Norms in India
Das, U., Sarkhel, P., & Ashraf, S. (2021) · South Asia Economic Journal · doi:10.1177/13915614211053928 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Are Competitive Elections Good for Your Health? Evidence from the 1918 Flu and Covid-19Preprint
Walden, J., & Zhukov, Y. M. (2021) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3921182 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Mundodan, J., Sallam, M. A., Ravi, R., Abuqaoud, A. H. A., Sayed, M., Abualqasim, A., Ali, A., Elbourdiny, M., Khogali, H., Alshamali, M., et al. (2024) · Journal of Vaccines Immunology and Immunopathology · doi:10.29011/2575-789x.0001111
Predicting COVID-19 Vaccination Intentions Among UK Parents Using Protection Motivation Theory
Obohwemu, K. O. (2025) · JORMA International Journal of Health and Social Sciences · doi:10.64074/jorma003
- Authors
- Andersson, O., Campos-Mercade, P., Meier, A., & Wengström, E.
- Affiliations
- Uppsala University (SE)
- University of Basel (CH)
- Lund University (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Andersson, Ola
- Venue
- SSRN Electronic Journal
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021
- ISSN
- 1556-5068 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3145025551
- Cited by
- 23
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2025: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 14
- Type
- posted content
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Lund University Publications (Lund University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Econstor (Econstor) (submittedVersion)
- Lund University Publications (Lund University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › COVID-19 Prevention and Impact
- Social Sciences › Communication › Communication and COVID-19 Impact
- Keywords
- COVID-19 vaccines, social distancing, vaccine information, public health recommendations, return to normal life, pandemic policy, virus transmission
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review