BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Qatar
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Abstract
With the global expansion of the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant, we conducted a matched test-negative case-control study to assess the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 messenger RNA vaccines against infection with Delta in Qatar's population. BNT162b2 effectiveness against any, symptomatic or asymptomatic, Delta infection was 45.3% (95% CI, 22.0-61.6%) ≥14 d after the first vaccine dose, but only 51.9% (95% CI, 47.0-56.4%) ≥14 d after the second dose, with 50% of fully vaccinated individuals receiving their second dose before 11 May 2021. Corresponding mRNA-1273 effectiveness ≥14 d after the first or second dose was 73.7% (95% CI, 58.1-83.5%) and 73.1% (95% CI, 67.5-77.8%), respectively. Notably, effectiveness against Delta-induced severe, critical or fatal disease was 93.4% (95% CI, 85.4-97.0%) for BNT162b2 and 96.1% (95% CI, 71.6-99.5%) for mRNA-1273 ≥ 14 d after the second dose. Our findings show robust effectiveness for both BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 in preventing Delta hospitalization and death in Qatar's population, despite lower effectiveness in preventing infection, particularly for the BNT162b2 vaccine.
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Real-world studies performed a few months into COVID-19 vaccination campaigns showed high effectiveness of these vaccines.
“Real-world setting studies performed, few months into vaccination campaigns, showed high effectiveness of these vaccines [1-8].”
From Vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines against Delta and Omicron BA.1 symptomatic and severe COVID-19 outcomes in adults aged 50 years and over in France (2023) · cites this paper as [7]
The Discussion (page unavailable) reports robust effectiveness of both vaccines against Delta-related hospitalization and death. It also reports only 53.5% effectiveness for BNT162b2 against any Delta infection after two doses, so the unqualified claim of high effectiveness overstates this study's findings. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredReal-world data from Qatar indicated that the BNT162b2 vaccine had 51.9% effectiveness against the Delta variant, significantly lower than 75.0% against Beta and 89.5% against Alpha.
“Real-world data from Qatar indicated that the BNT162b2 vaccine had only 51.9% effectiveness against the Delta variant, which was significantly lower compared to 75.0% and 89.5% effectiveness conferred by the vaccine against Beta and Alpha variants, respectively.102”
From Advances in COVID-19 mRNA vaccine development (2022) · cites this paper as [102]
Real-world data showed mRNA-1273 effectiveness against Alpha was 100%, against Beta 96.4%, and against Delta 73.1%.
“Real-world data showed that effectiveness of mRNA-1273 against Alpha and Beta variants was 100% and 96.4%, respectively,417,418 whereas effectiveness against Delta was slightly lower (73.1%).102”
From Advances in COVID-19 mRNA vaccine development (2022) · cites this paper as [102]
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- Authors
- Tang, P., Hasan, M. R., Chemaitelly, H., Yassine, H. M., Benslimane, F. M., Al Khatib, H. A., AlMukdad, S., Coyle, P., Ayoub, H. H., Al Kanaani, Z., Al Kuwari, E., Jeremijenko, A., Kaleeckal, A. H., Latif, A. N., Shaik, R. M., Abdul Rahim, H. F., Nasrallah, G. K., Al Kuwari, M. G., Al Romaihi, H. E., Butt, A. A., Al-Thani, M. H., Al Khal, A., Bertollini, R., & Abu-Raddad, L. J.
- Affiliations
- Sidra Medical and Research Center (QA)
- Cornell University (US)
- Qatar University (QA)
- Queen's University Belfast (GB)
- Hamad Medical Corporation (QA)
- Ministry of Public Health (QA)
- Corresponding author
- Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Medicine
- Published
- 2021-11-02
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 2136-2143
- ISSN
- 1078-8956 (ISSN-L)
- 1546-170X
- OpenAlex
- W3210921815
- Cited by
- 450
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 23 · 2024: 42 · 2023: 78 · 2022: 251 · 2021: 44 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 32.86
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Medicine (publishedVersion)
- medRxiv (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Research Portal (Queen's University Belfast) (submittedVersion)
- Qatar University QSpace (Qatar University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar
- Hamad Medical Corporation
- Ministry of Public Health Qatar
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Infectious Diseases › SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
- Social Sciences › Health › Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Keywords
- BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, COVID-19 vaccines, Delta variant, vaccine effectiveness, real-world effectiveness, asymptomatic infection, symptomatic infection, hospitalization prevention, mortality prevention, test-negative case-control, Qatar
- MeSH terms
- COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines, Vaccine Efficacy, BNT162 Vaccine, 2019-nCoV Vaccine mRNA-1273, Breakthrough Infections, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Qatar, Severity of Illness Index, Case-Control Studies, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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