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Odds Adjustments by American Horse-Race Bettors
Abstract
In horse-race betting, the odds on the various horses in any race are a functioning of the proportion of the total money that is bet on each and hence are socially determined. On the other hand, the objective probability for winners from any group of horses is given a posteriori by the percentage of winners. Thus the odds express (reciprocally) a psychological probability while the percentage of winners at any odds group measures the true probability; any consistent discrepancy between the two may cast light not only on the specific topics of horse-race betting and gambling but on the more general field of the psychology of probabilities…
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Citations
Cited by
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/0033-295x.90.4.293 · Cited by 3,991
Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.
Kahneman, D., & Frederick, S. (2002) · Heuristics and Biases · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.004 · Cited by 3,476
Slovic, P., Finucane, M., Peters, E., & MacGregor, D. G. (2002) · Heuristics and Biases · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511808098.025 · Cited by 2,349
“Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment.”
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.2648573 · Cited by 2,298
The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences
Gilovich, T., Vallone, R., & Tversky, A. (1985) · Cognitive Psychology · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6 · Cited by 1,649
Metadata
- Authors
- Griffith, R. M.
- Venue
- The American Journal of Psychology
- Publisher
- University of Illinois Press
- Published
- 1949-04
- Volume
- 62
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 290
- ISSN
- 0002-9556 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2331092289
- Cited by
- 305
- References
- 0
- FWCI
- 0.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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