Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs
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Orley Ashenfelter, David Card, Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 67, No. 4 (Nov., 1985), pp. 648-660
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Omitting the 12 months on either side of treatment to avoid the Ashenfelter dip would assume the pre-treatment changes are caused by transitory shocks rather than a trend break.
“While one could omit the 12 months on either side of treatment in an attempt to avoid the Ashenfelter dip, this would assume the pre-treatment changes are caused by transitory shocks rather than a trend break (see the discussion in Ashenfelter and Card, 1985).”
From Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment (2020) · cites this paper as Ashenfelter and Card, 1985
The paper’s Section C models pre-training earnings differences as both transitory and trend-related, and its discussion of symmetric difference-in-differences estimators says their choice requires maintained assumptions. It does not discuss omitting exactly 12 months on either side of treatment; it also finds that transitory earnings shocks can persist for years. The citation supports the concern about assuming a transitory dip rather than a trend change, but not the specific 12-month rule. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe first papers that mention difference-in-differences estimators in the data are Ashenfelter and Card (1985) and Card and Sullivan (1988), which appeared as NBER working papers in 1984 and 1987, respectively.
“The first papers that mention difference-in-differences estimators in our data are Ashenfelter and Card (1985) and Card and Sullivan (1988), which appeared as NBER working papers in 1984 and 1987, respectively.”
From Technology and Big Data Are Changing Economics: Mining Text to Track Methods (2020) · cites this paper as Ashenfelter and Card (1985)
The paper discusses and estimates difference-in-differences effects (passages labeled Abstract; page unavailable), supporting its identification as a paper that mentions the estimator. Our copy does not establish that these were the first papers in the citing authors’ data, identify Card and Sullivan (1988), or verify the stated NBER working-paper dates. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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Research works printed but not linked: 6
- Ashenfelter, Orley. "The Effect of Manpower Training on Earnings: Preliminary Results," in Proceedings of the Twenty-Seventh Annual Winter Meeting of the Industrial Relations Research Association, 1975, pp. 252-260.
- Ashenfelter, Orley. "Estimating the Effects of Training Programs on Earnings," Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1978, pp. 47-57.
- Bassi, Laurie J. "The Effect of CETA on the Postprogram Earnings of Participants," Journal of Human Resources, Fall 1983, pp. 539-556.
- Bassi, Laurie J. "Estimating the Effect of Training Programs with Non-Random Selection," Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1984, pp. 36-43.
- Heckman, James J. "The Longitudinal Analysis of Earnings." Unpublished manuscript presented at SSRC Conference on Longitudinal Studies of the Labor Market, October 1978.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. 'The Economic Benefits from Four Government Training Programs," in Farrell E, Bloch (ed.), atm Manpower friin Greenwich,Connecticut: JAI Press, 1979, pp. 159-187.
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- Authors
- Ashenfelter, O., & Card, D.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- ORCID
- Card, David
- Venue
- The Review of Economics and Statistics
- Publisher
- JSTOR
- Published
- 1985-11
- Volume
- 67
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 648
- ISSN
- 0034-6535 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2171040166
- Cited by
- 1,023
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 29 · 2025: 51 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 49 · 2022: 56 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 90 · 2019: 60 · 2018: 66 · 2017: 54 · 2016: 45 · 2015: 42 · 2014: 33 · 2013: 45 · 2012: 28
- FWCI
- 14.35
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.nber.org
- Locations
- The Review of Economics and Statistics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Human Resource Development and Performance Evaluation
- Keywords
- training program, earnings, returns to training, program evaluation
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