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Cited by 145Policing Practices and PerceptionsCrime Patterns and InterventionsCriminal Justice and Penology

The Effects of Local Police Surges on Crime and Arrests in New York City

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MacDonald, John, Fagan, Jeffrey, Geller, Amanda·2016·PLOS ONE
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0157223PMC PMC4911104
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Abstract

The New York Police Department (NYPD) under Operation Impact deployed extra police officers to high crime areas designated as impact zones. Officers were encouraged to conduct investigative stops in these areas. City officials credited the program as one of the leading causes of New York City's low crime rate. We tested the effects of Operation Impact on reported crimes and arrests from 2004 to 2012 using a difference-in-differences approach. We used Poisson regression models to compare differences in crime and arrest counts before and after census block groups were designated as impact zones compared to census block groups in the same NYPD precincts but outside impact zones. Impact zones were significantly associated with reductions in total reported crimes, assaults, burglaries, drug violations, misdemeanor crimes, felony property crimes, robberies, and felony violent crimes. Impact zones were significantly associated with increases in total reported arrests, arrests for burglary, arrests for weapons, arrests for misdemeanor crimes, and arrests for property felony crimes. Impact zones were also significantly associated with increases in investigative stops for suspected crimes, but only the increase in stops made based on probable cause indicators of criminal behaviors were associated with crime reductions. The largest increase in investigative stops in impact zones was based on indicators of suspicious behavior that had no measurable effect on crime. The findings suggest that saturating high crime blocks with police helped reduce crime in New York City, but that the bulk of the investigative stops did not play an important role in the crime reductions. The findings indicate that crime reduction can be achieved with more focused investigative stops.

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  1. [7]Kubrin CE, Messner SF, Deane G, McGeever K, Stucky TD. PROACTIVE POLICING AND ROBBERY RATES ACROSS US CITIES*. Criminology. 2010 2 1; 48(1): 57– 97.
  2. [22]Berk R, MacDonald J. Policing the homeless. Criminology & Public Policy. 2010 11 1; 9(4): 813– 40.

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Authors
MacDonald, J., Fagan, J., & Geller, A.
Affiliations
  • University of Pennsylvania (US)
  • Columbia University (US)
  • New York University (US)
Corresponding author
MacDonald, John
ORCID
Venue
PLOS ONE
Publisher
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published
2016-06-16
Volume
11
Issue
6
Pages
e0157223
ISSN
1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0157223
PMC
PMC4911104
OpenAlex
W2177794968
Cited by
145
References
33
Citations by year
2026: 10 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 16 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 10
FWCI
60.75
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • bepress Legal Repository (submittedVersion)
  • eYLS (Yale Law School) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
  • Columbia Academic Commons (Columbia University)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
  • Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
Keywords
impact zone, New York City Police Department, crime reduction, arrests, investigative stops, police presence, high-crime neighborhoods, violent crime, property crime, New York City
MeSH terms
Workforce, Firesetting Behavior, Homicide, Humans, New York City, Theft, Violence, Models, Statistical, Police, Law Enforcement, Drug Trafficking

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