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Cited by 2,380

The DOI matches its OpenAlex record; 21 of the 21 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends

Open access
John Campbell, Robert Shiller·1988·Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University)
DOI 10.2307/2328190
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Abstract

Long historical averages of real earnings help forecast present values of future real dividends. With aggregate U.S. stock market data (1871-1986), a vector-autoregressive forecast of the present value of future dividends is, for each year, roughly a weighted average of moving-average earnings and current real price, with between two thirds and three fourths of the weight on the earnings measure. We develop the implications of this for the present-value model of stock prices and for recent results that long-horizon stock returns are highly forecastable.

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OpenAlex · 10.2307/2328190

Cites

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Metadata

Authors
Campbell, J., & Shiller, R.
Venue
Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University)
Publisher
Harvard University
Published
1988-01-01
DOI
10.2307/2328190
OpenAlex
W3122712023
Cited by
2,380
References
21
FWCI
27.35
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
green

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This page
CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.2307/2328190
The paper
Campbell, J., & Shiller, R. (1988). Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends. Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University). https://doi.org/10.2307/2328190

Data sources

Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.