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Of Conspiracy Theories
Abstract
As the end of the Millennium approaches, conspiracy theories are increasing in number and popularity. In this short essay, I offer an analysis of conspiracy theories inspired by Hume's discussion of miracles. My first conclusion is that whereas Hume can argue that miracles are, by definition, explanations we are not warranted in believing, there is nothing analytic that will allow us to distinguish good from bad conspiracy theories. There is no a priori method for distinguishing warranted conspiracy theories (say, those explaining Watergate) from those which are unwarranted (say, theories about extraterrestrials abducting humans). Nonetheless, there is a cluster of characteristics often shared by unwarranted conspiracy theories. An analysis of the alleged explanatory virtues of unwarranted conspiracies suggests some reasons for their current popularity, while at the same time providing grounds for their rejection. Finally, I discuss how conspiracy theories embody an anachronistic world-view that places the contemporary zeitgeist in a clearer light.
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“conspiracy theories rely on isolated morsels of evidence inconsistent with an official account [31] (e.g., that Timothy McVeigh fled the Oklahoma City bombing in a car without licence plates) while ignoring overwhelming evidence to the contrary”
From The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science (2013) · cites this paper as [31]
In the citing paper
“evidence against conspiracy theories is often construed as evidence for them, because the evidence is interpreted as arising from the conspiracy in question”
From The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science (2013) · cites this paper as [31]
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Items 301–400 of 585
Psychological entitlement and conspiracy beliefs: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic
Neville, L., Fisk, G. M., & Ens, K. (2024) · Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1080/00224545.2023.2292626 · Cited by 4
“Conspiracy theories are unfalsifiable in that the total absence of evidence, or even contradictory evidence, is taken as confirmation of their truth (Keeley, 1999).”
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Mittendorf, W. (2024) · Inquiry · doi:10.1080/0020174x.2024.2375776 · Cited by 4
“1 The first two major philosophical examinations of the epistemic dimension of conspiracy theories come from Keeley (1999) and Pigden (1995), who argue, respectively, that conspiracy theories are not a priori unwarranted to believe (because some are true and there is no ‘mark of the incredible’…”
Should we worry about conspiracy theorists rejecting experts?
Tsapos, M. (2024) · Inquiry · doi:10.1080/0020174x.2024.2375774 · Cited by 5
“Another type of definition narrows the scope by adding relativizing terminology , for example by defining conspiracy theories as claims that are ‘contrary to the claims of authorities’ (Coady 2006, 2007; Harris 2018; 2023; Keeley 1999; Räikkä 2009).”
Reuter, K. (2024) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-024-04669-x · Cited by 4
“…supported by a range of scholars, including Basham and Dentith (2016), Cassam (2019), Coady (2003), Cohnitz (2018), Feldman (2011), Harris (2018), Keeley (1999), Pigden (2007), and Räikkä (2018), although it is important to note that these scholars don’t necessarily agree on a singular definition…”
BackgroundBuehling, K., Zhang, X., & Heft, A. (2025) · New Media & Society · doi:10.1177/14614448251315756 · Cited by 9
“…some historical event (or events) in terms of the significant causal agency of a relatively small group of persons – the conspirators – acting in secret” (Keeley, 1999: 116), the distribution of and interaction with this type of content invites a full range of public communication on and about…”
Introduction: Conspiracy Theories
Coady, D. P. (2007) · Episteme · doi:10.3366/epi.2007.4.2.131 · Cited by 4
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“Those explanations differ from the official version of the same events (Keeley, 1999).”
BackgroundKim, J., Baek, J., Lee, J., & Kim, J. (2022) · American Behavioral Scientist · doi:10.1177/00027642221118283 · Cited by 3
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The “Global” Deception: Flat-Earth Conspiracy Theory between Science and Religion
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“…advance a heterodox astronomical hypothesis concerning the flat shape of our planet, but set out, as is typically the case in conspiracy imaginary (Keeley 1999), to expose the deception perpetrated by a power elite that covertly directs historical events for evil ends, claiming that political…”
BackgroundOn the Epistemic Acceptability of Conspiracy Theories
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Wilson, A. (2008) · ProQuest Demo Repository · Cited by 4
Hyde, B. V. E. (2025) · AI & Society · doi:10.1007/s00146-025-02637-8 · Cited by 4
“The use of labels like ‘conspiracy’ and ‘misinformation’ has been investigated by philosophers like Brian Keeley (1999) and M.R.X. Den-tith (2014) who observe that not all information that receives these monikers is false or irrational.”
Wunderlich, P. (2025) · Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour · doi:10.1111/jtsb.70001 · Cited by 4
Navarro, I. L., & Requejo, L. S. (2025) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0338384 · Cited by 2
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Literacy in a post-truth world
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When to dismiss conspiracy theories out of hand
Ross, R. (2023) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-023-04257-5 · Cited by 3
“For example, the mainstream explanation of the Oklahoma City bombing doesn’t cohere well with the fact that no ATF agents (McVeigh’s primary target) were killed or the fact that McVeigh’s attempt to flee the bombing was so seemingly inept (Keeley, 1999, p. 115).”
BackgroundMuirhead, R., & Rosenblum, N. L. (2023) · Political Studies Review · doi:10.1177/14789299231212165 · Cited by 3
“Conspiracy theories may seem immune from non-corroborating evidence, but in practice, they often have to be (Keeley, 1999).”
BackgroundNews media’s epistemological framings of the Covid-19 ‘lab leak’ hypothesis
Deschrijver, C. (2024) · Pragmatics & beyond. New series · doi:10.1075/pbns.339.07des · Cited by 3
Conspiracy theories and geography: Who gets to say where is power?
Ridgway, V. (2025) · Dialogues in Human Geography · doi:10.1177/20438206251316008 · Cited by 3
“Following the path set forth by Hofstadter ’ s (1996) oft-cited essay ‘ The Paranoid Style in North American Politics ’ , some work in political theory and philosophy takes on the diagnosis of individual psychological biases as the root issue of conspiratorial beliefs (Barkun, 2003; Clarke, 2002; Keeley, 1999).”
InfluentialPartisan and non-partisan conspiracy theories’ diverging effects on political participation
Bayar, M. C. (2025) · Electoral Studies · doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102920 · Cited by 3
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Prims, J. (2024) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0301601 · Cited by 5
How conspiratorial beliefs spread, and how real conspiracies are covered up
Novaes, C. D. (2024) · Inquiry · doi:10.1080/0020174x.2024.2375770 · Cited by 3
“If people come to believe that presumed conspirators really are malevolent, no contrary evidence presented by them will ever be compelling, as it is part of the conspiracy itself to involve deception (Hawley 2019a; Keeley 1999).”
InfluentialPopular conspiracy theories in Slovakia and the Czech Republic
Panczová, Z., & Janeček, P. (2015) · Diogenes · doi:10.1177/0392192120945614 · Cited by 3
Lafferty, D. (2014) · University of Toronto Quarterly · doi:10.3138/utq.83.4.803 · Cited by 3
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Mazumdar, R. (2022) · Intellect Books · doi:10.1386/9781789383973_14 · Cited by 3
Trust Nobody: How Voters React To Conspiracy TheoriesPreprint
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Conspiracy theories, epistemic self-identity, and epistemic territory
Munro, D. (2024) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-024-04541-y · Cited by 2
“Some philosophers have argued that (at least some) conspiracy theorists fail to place appropriate degrees of trust in reliable epistemic authorities (for various versions of this view, see Keeley, 1999; Levy, 2007; Cassam, 2016; Nguyen, 2020).”
Conspiracy Theorists’ World and Genealogy
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Čejková, L., & Macková, A. (2025) · Journal of Information Technology & Politics · doi:10.1080/19331681.2025.2465317 · Cited by 3
Kiszkiel, Ł., Sowa, P., Laskowski, P. P., Alimowski, M., Moniuszko-Malinowska, A., Szczerbiński, Ł., Sołomacha, S., Skonieczna‐Żydecka, K., Samochowiec, J., Solmi, M., et al. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-99991-w · Cited by 3
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Radford, R. (2020) · Fieldwork in Religion · doi:10.1558/firn.40567 · Cited by 2
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Galbraith, D. (2022) · Philosophy of the Social Sciences · doi:10.1177/00483931221081001 · Cited by 2
Zwar, L., König, H., & Hajek, A. (2022) · Aging & Mental Health · doi:10.1080/13607863.2022.2102141 · Cited by 2
“Previous research has shown that some individuals are more inclined to believe in conspiracy theories and even believe in multiple contradictory theories (Douglas & Sutton, 2008; Keeley, 1999; Swami et al., 2010).”
BackgroundInfluentialWhat To Do About Conspiracy Theories?
Drążkiewicz, E., & Harambam, J. (2024) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781032647463 · Cited by 3
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Exploring the impacts of conspiracy theories on election dynamics in Spain and Turkey
Nefes, T. S., & Reche, A. R. (2024) · Mediterranean Politics · doi:10.1080/13629395.2024.2355032 · Cited by 2
“Conspiracy theories are explanations of ‘events in terms of the significant causal agency of a relatively small group of persons -the conspirators-acting in secret’ (Keeley, 1999, p. 116).”
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Harris, K. R. (2024) · Journal of the American Philosophical Association · doi:10.1017/apa.2024.3 · Cited by 3
Conspiracy theorists are not the problem; Conspiracy liars are
Keeley, B. L. (2024) · Inquiry · doi:10.1080/0020174x.2024.2375771 · Cited by 3
“In previous work (Keeley 1999, 117 ff ), I labeled these anomalies ‘errant data’ and described them as coming in two classes: (a) unaccounted-for data and (b) contradictory data.”
Self-citationOlmeda, T. M. (2024) · Enrahonar An international journal of theoretical and practical reason · doi:10.5565/rev/enrahonar.1579 · Cited by 2
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Matthews, F. (2025) · Social Epistemology · doi:10.1080/02691728.2025.2449612 · Cited by 2
Raposo, B. B., Pantazi, M., & Klein, O. (2015) · Les cahiers internationaux de psychologie sociale · doi:10.3917/cips.106.0149 · Cited by 2
“Les théories du complot sont des "explications d’un événement historique (ou d’une série d’événements historiques) fondées sur le rôle causal d’un petit groupe d’individus agissant en secret" (Keeley, 1999, p. 116, traduction par Klein & Van Der Linden, 2010).”
BackgroundConspiracy, Security and Human Care in Donnersmarck's "Leben der Anderen"
Hamilton, J. T. (2013) · Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) · doi:10.12759/hsr.38.2013.1.129-141 · Cited by 2
Horn, V., & Kay, C. (2010) · Cited by 2
Les Théories du complotMoyen d’explication légitime, pensée irrationnelle, étiquette commode ?
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Bailin, S., & Battersby, M. (2022) · Argumentation library · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-91017-4_14 · Cited by 2
Puumeister, O. (2020) · Sign Systems Studies · doi:10.12697/sss.2020.48.2-4.15 · Cited by 2
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Heering, D. C. (2023) · Zeitschrift für Praktische Philosophie · doi:10.22613/zfpp/9.2.6 · Cited by 2
With God We Distrust! The Impact of Values in Conspiracy Theory Beliefs About Migration in Serbia
Nefes, T. S., Đorđević, J. M., & Vdović, M. (2024) · Sociological Research Online · doi:10.1177/13607804231212310 · Cited by 2
“Conspiracy theories are explanations of ‘events in terms of the significant causal agency of a relatively small group of persons-the conspirators-acting in secret’ (Keeley, 1999: 116).”
Have you heard? The rumour as reliable
Dentith, M. R. X. (2013) · PhilPapers (PhilPapers Foundation) · Cited by 2
On Becoming a Conspiracy Thinker: A Second-Order Adaptive Network Model
Beemster, T., Bijleveld, N., & Jan Treur, A. (2021) · Procedia Computer Science · doi:10.1016/j.procs.2021.06.007 · Cited by 2
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BackgroundAragão, R. B. D. A., Lima, M. B., Burns, G., Ross, H., & Biggs, D. (2024) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4677207 · Cited by 15
Nera, K., Bertin, P., Biddlestone, M., et al. (2024) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/ugrdb · Cited by 2
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Räikkä, J. (2023) · Handbooks in philosophy · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-07002-0_141 · Cited by 2
How Mumbo-Jumbo conquered the world: empirical analysis of conspiracy theories
Cevik, S. (2024) · Economic Change and Restructuring · doi:10.1007/s10644-024-09717-7 · Cited by 1
“…phenomenon shaped by psychological traits, cognitive biases, political leanings, and socioeconomic dynamics (Goertzel 1994; Pigden 1995; Keeley 1999; Barkun 2003; Swami 2012; Brother-ton and French 2014; Van Prooijen et al. 2015; DiGrazia 2017; Mancosu et al. 2017; Drochon 2018; Butter…”
Verschwörungstheorien und skeptische Hypothesen: immun gegen Gegenbelege?
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Sağlam, E. (2025) · Current Anthropology · doi:10.1086/733925 · Cited by 2
Turner, H. (2025) · Communication Theory · doi:10.1093/ct/qtaf002 · Cited by 1
They are Hiding the Truth and Plotting: Conspiracy Beliefs Among Latinos
Wright, K., Tezcür, G. M., Mainx, M., & Tafoya, J. (2025) · The Journal of Race Ethnicity and Politics · doi:10.1017/rep.2025.17 · Cited by 1
Barzen, A. (2025) · Frontiers in Sociology · doi:10.3389/fsoc.2025.1583960 · Cited by 1
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Joseph, D. Z. (2025) · Social Epistemology · doi:10.1080/02691728.2025.2522414 · Cited by 1
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Munro, D., & Rini, R. A. (2024) · Canadian Journal of Philosophy · doi:10.1017/can.2025.10022 · Cited by 1
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Stone rain: the strange case of nuclear folklore in Iran’s post-1979 revolution major earthquakes
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“Conspiracy theories contest scientific knowledge, cultivating misguided beliefs over the truth and attributing causal agency over historical events to small groups (Keeley, 1999).”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Keeley, B. L.
- Affiliations
- Washington University in St. Louis (US)
- Corresponding author
- Keeley, Brian L.
- ORCID
- Keeley, Brian L.
- Venue
- The Journal of Philosophy
- Publisher
- Philosophy Documentation Center
- Published
- 1999-03
- Volume
- 96
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 109
- ISSN
- 0022-362X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1505155904
- Cited by
- 581
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 70 · 2023: 72 · 2022: 80 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 53 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 24 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 22 · 2012: 8
- FWCI
- 11.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Journal of Philosophy (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Paranormal Experiences and Beliefs
- Keywords
- conspiracy theories, David Hume, miracles, epistemic warrant, explanation, Watergate, anachronism
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Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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