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Of Conspiracy Theories
Abstract
As the end of the Millennium approaches, conspiracy theories are increasing in number and popularity. In this short essay, I offer an analysis of conspiracy theories inspired by Hume's discussion of miracles. My first conclusion is that whereas Hume can argue that miracles are, by definition, explanations we are not warranted in believing, there is nothing analytic that will allow us to distinguish good from bad conspiracy theories. There is no a priori method for distinguishing warranted conspiracy theories (say, those explaining Watergate) from those which are unwarranted (say, theories about extraterrestrials abducting humans). Nonetheless, there is a cluster of characteristics often shared by unwarranted conspiracy theories. An analysis of the alleged explanatory virtues of unwarranted conspiracies suggests some reasons for their current popularity, while at the same time providing grounds for their rejection. Finally, I discuss how conspiracy theories embody an anachronistic world-view that places the contemporary zeitgeist in a clearer light.
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“conspiracy theories rely on isolated morsels of evidence inconsistent with an official account [31] (e.g., that Timothy McVeigh fled the Oklahoma City bombing in a car without licence plates) while ignoring overwhelming evidence to the contrary”
From The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science (2013) · cites this paper as [31]
In the citing paper
“evidence against conspiracy theories is often construed as evidence for them, because the evidence is interpreted as arising from the conspiracy in question”
From The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science (2013) · cites this paper as [31]
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“…conspiracy theories produced a sparse but dense output of work by such philosophers as Lee Basham (2011), Steve Clarke (2007), David Coady (2012), Brian L. Keeley (1999), Charles Pigden (1995) and the like, we are now seeing a steady increase in interest by a growing group of philosophers, many…”
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“While conspiracy theories are often associated with negative undertones (Aaronovitch, 2010; Byford, 2011; Coady, 2006; Dentith & Orr, 2017; Keeley, 1999Napolitano & Reuter, 2021), extensive research into the types of narratives that provoke conspiratorial thinking and the evolving channels in which…”
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“While some scholars [10] recognize the validity of certain conspiracy theories throughout history, most agree that the label conspiracy theory is derogatory, used in academic and popular discourse to stigmatize or dismiss proponents of non-mainstream claims [7, 17, 22].”
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Colyvan, M., Smartt, T., & Tierney, H. (2025) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-025-05257-3
“Since our arguments target this literature—especially the inter - vention strategies that they propose—we will proceed with this broad definition, although, for the most part, we are interested in what Keeley ( 1999 ) called “unwarranted conspiracy theories”.”
Kallestrup, J., & Michelini, M. (2025) · Episteme · doi:10.1017/epi.2025.10081
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Reuter, K., & Baumgartner, L. (2025) · Synthese Library/Synthese library · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-98535-5_7
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Papaioannou, K., & Pantazi, M. (2025) · British Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1111/bjso.70019
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Metadata
- Authors
- Keeley, B. L.
- Affiliations
- Washington University in St. Louis (US)
- Corresponding author
- Keeley, Brian L.
- ORCID
- Keeley, Brian L.
- Venue
- The Journal of Philosophy
- Publisher
- Philosophy Documentation Center
- Published
- 1999-03
- Volume
- 96
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 109
- ISSN
- 0022-362X (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1505155904
- Cited by
- 581
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 30 · 2025: 50 · 2024: 70 · 2023: 72 · 2022: 80 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 53 · 2019: 25 · 2018: 18 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 24 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 22 · 2012: 8
- FWCI
- 11.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- The Journal of Philosophy (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Misinformation and Its Impacts
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Paranormal Experiences and Beliefs
- Keywords
- conspiracy theories, David Hume, miracles, epistemic warrant, explanation, Watergate, anachronism
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