The Revealed Preferences for School Reopening: Evidence From Public-School Disenrollment
Abstract
Before the 2020–2021 school year, policymakers and parents confronted the uncertain trade-offs implied by the health, educational, and economic consequences of offering instruction remotely, in person, or through a hybrid of the two. Most public schools in the United States chose remote-only instruction, and enrollment fell dramatically (i.e., a loss 1.1 million K–12 students). We examine the impact of these choices on public-school enrollment using panel data that combine district-level information on enrollment and instructional mode. We find offering remote-only instead of in-person instruction reduced enrollment by 1.1 percentage points (i.e., 42% greater disenrollment). The disenrollment effects of remote instruction are concentrated in kindergarten and, more modestly, elementary schools. We do not find evidence that hybrid instruction had an impact.
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The movement away from in-person instruction during the 2020-2021 school year reduced student achievement, worsened children's mental health, and decreased school enrollment.
“There is a growing body of literature suggesting that the movement away from in-person instruction during the 2020-2021 school year reduced student achievement,8,10,11,12 worsened children’s mental health,13,14,15,16 and decreased school enrollment.17,18”
From Virtual Learning in Kindergarten Through Grade 12 During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Chronic Absenteeism (2024) · cites this paper as [17]
Between the 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 school years, US public schools experienced historically unprecedented enrollment declines of 2.3 percent.
“between the 2018 to 2019 and 2021 to 2022 school years, US public schools experienced historically unprecedented enrollment declines of 2.3 percent.”
From Higher chronic absenteeism threatens academic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (2024) · cites this paper as [12]
The enrollment declines between 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 reflected demographic change, responses to remote-only instruction, and shifts to private schools and homeschooling.
“These declines reflected demographic change, responses to remote-only instruction, and shifts to private schools and homeschooling (11, 12).”
From Higher chronic absenteeism threatens academic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (2024) · cites this paper as [12]
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- Authors
- Dee, T. S., Huffaker, E., Phillips, C., & Sagara, E.
- Affiliations
- Stanford University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Dee, Thomas S.
- Venue
- American Educational Research Journal
- Published
- 2022-12-22
- Volume
- 60
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 916-940
- ISSN
- 0002-8312 (ISSN-L)
- 1935-1011
- OpenAlex
- W3196199898
- Cited by
- 24
- References
- 30
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 8 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 9.16
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- American Educational Research Journal (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Brown Institute for Media Innovation
- Institute of Education Sciences (R305B090016)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Education › Education during COVID-19 pandemic
- Social Sciences › Education › School Choice and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
- Keywords
- school reopening, public school enrollment, remote instruction, face-to-face teaching, hybrid instruction, COVID-19 pandemic, K-12 education, kindergarten, elementary school, school district policy
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