Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium
Open accessAbstract
The relationship between climate and population has long been discussed, but rarely has it been quantitatively measured. Hence, the relationship remains ambiguous. In the present study, we employ fine-grained temperature, aridity threshold, and population data, together with logistic models and spatial statistics, to quantitatively explore how far climate change affected population growth dynamics in China from 1000 to 1979. Statistical results confirm that cold climate was associated with below average population growth, mediated by regional geographic contexts. In addition, cold climate triggered a southward shift of populations. In short, the climate-population relationship was evident in historical China, and temperature was more influential than the aridity threshold in explaining the fluctuation of population size and shifts in population distribution. The strong influence of temperature change on northward and southward population shifts and the weak influence of the change in the aridity threshold on population growth dynamics are further discussed. The observed temperature-population relationship may give some indication of future demographic effects from climate warming. © Inter-Research 2009.
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Li Bozhong compared two data sets on climate change and population over the past 2000 years, concluding that climate change decisively affected population variation.
“Li Bozhong compared two data sets on climate change and population over the past 2000 years, concluding that climate change decisively affected population variation.”
From Climate change and Chinese history: a review of trends, topics, and methods (2015) · cites this paper as [91]
Section 5.2.2 says the authors found a climate–population relationship in historical China. But the paper describes its own analysis of China from 1000 to 1979; the passages do not support the attribution to Li Bozhong, a comparison of two datasets over 2,000 years, or an unqualified conclusion that climate change decisively affected population variation. No page number is available for the cited passage. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredLi Bozhong's analysis took into account other direct and indirect factors, including crop failure and social crisis.
“This analysis took into account other direct and indirect factors, including crop failure and social crisis, respectively.91”
From Climate change and Chinese history: a review of trends, topics, and methods (2015) · cites this paper as [91]
The Working Hypotheses section discusses harvest failures and subsequent war, famine, and epidemics, but it does not describe Li Bozhong’s analysis or say which factors that analysis took into account. Searches for “Li Bozhong,” “Bozhong,” and “direct and indirect factors” found no passage addressing that attribution; the cited passages provide no page number. (LLM, conf=0.72)
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- Authors
- Lee, H., Zhang, D., & Fok, L.
- Affiliations
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
- ORCID
- Fok, L
- Venue
- Climate Research
- Publisher
- Inter-Research Science Center
- Published
- 2009-07-28
- Volume
- 39
- Pages
- 131-147
- ISSN
- 0936-577X (ISSN-L)
- 1616-1572
- OpenAlex
- W2088813713
- Cited by
- 41
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2023: 1 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 1 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 7 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 1.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Climate Research (publishedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- temperature, aridity threshold, population growth, historical demography, China, last millennium, cold climate, logistic growth model
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