El Niño induced changes to the Bolivar Channel ecosystem (Galapagos): Comparing model simulations with historical biomass time series
Open accessAbstract
During a strong El Niño event, nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations around the Galapagos archipelago greatly decrease, while sea surface temperature increases (> 7°C).Several species suffer under these conditions, while some benefit and new species appear.To understand the mechanisms behind observed changes, a trophic reference model of the Bolivar Channel ecosystem was forced by a 16 yr (1994 to 2009) satellite-derived time series of phytoplankton biomass including the El Niño period 1997/98.Emergent changes in model compartment biomasses, as derived from dynamic simulations, were compared to in situ observations of the subtidal communities and marine vertebrates over the study period.Observed population reductions of seabirds (penguins and flightless cormorants) and of several fish groups were well predicted by the simulations, suggesting that bottom-up effects largely control the system during an El Niño event.Observational data also enabled modifying the reference model to an El Niño state model.In this El Niño model, ecosystem size (total energy throughput) was reduced by 70.1%.Overall system characteristics show great similarities with other coastal upwelling systems of the Peruvian coast in that strong El Niño events cause disruptions to trophic flows and keep them at a low (but highly productive) development state.
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The Galápagos penguin faces challenges from intense El Niño events and ocean warming.
“This species faces several challenges from intense El Niño events and ocean warming [48, 49] to ocean plastics [44].”
From Modelling microplastic bioaccumulation and biomagnification potential in the Galápagos penguin ecosystem using Ecopath and Ecosim (EwE) with Ecotracer (2024) · cites this paper as [49]
The Introduction reports that Galápagos penguin populations suffered greatly during severe, warm El Niño events, and the Time series/simulations section reports large population declines. The paper supports warming associated with those events, but does not establish ongoing ocean warming as a separate challenge to the species. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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- Authors
- Wolff, M., Ruiz, D., & Taylor, M.
- Affiliations
- Charles Darwin Foundation (EC)
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Wolff, M
- Venue
- Marine Ecology Progress Series
- Publisher
- Inter-Research Science Center
- Published
- 2012-02-23
- Volume
- 448
- Pages
- 7-22
- ISSN
- 0171-8630 (ISSN-L)
- 1616-1599
- OpenAlex
- W2167702043
- Cited by
- 61
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 25 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 2 · 2013: 4
- FWCI
- 1.09
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Marine Ecology Progress Series (publishedVersion)
- Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (Alfred-Wegener-Institut) (acceptedVersion)
- OpenAgrar (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Fundación Charles Darwin
- Galapagos Conservation Trust
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Keywords
- El Niño, Galápagos Islands, ecosystem modeling, phytoplankton biomass, seabird population decline, penguins, fish stock depletion, bottom-up control, energy throughput, coastal upwelling systems, 1997-1998 El Niño, sea surface temperature
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