Life-Cycle Variation in the Association between Current and Lifetime Earnings
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Researchers in a variety of important economic literatures have assumed that current income variables as proxies for lifetime income variables follow the textbook errors-in-variables model.In an analysis of Social Security records containing nearly career-long earnings histories for the Health and Retirement Study sample, we find that the relationship between current and lifetime earnings departs substantially from the textbook model in ways that vary systematically over the life cycle.Our results can enable more appropriate analysis of and correction for errors-in-variables bias in a wide range of research that uses current earnings to proxy for lifetime earnings.
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Measuring children's incomes too young can yield misleading estimates of lifetime income because children with high lifetime incomes have steeper earnings profiles.
“Measuring children's incomes when they are too young can potentially yield misleading estimates of lifetime income because children with high lifetime incomes have steeper earnings profiles (e.g., Haider and Solon 2006; Solon 1999).”
From Mobility Report Cards: The Role of Colleges in Intergenerational Mobility (2017) · cites this paper as Haider and Solon 2006
If α is assumed to vary over the life cycle of the mother, the regression estimates a weighted average with weights corresponding to the distribution of the age of mothers of 10-11 year olds in the CNLSY.
“if α is assumed to vary over the life cycle of the mother(Haider and Solon, 2006), the regression estimates a weighted average with weights corresponding to the distribution of the age of mothers of 10-11 year olds in the CNLSY.”
From Permanent Income and the Black-White Test Score Gap (2013) · cites this paper as Haider and Solon, 2006
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Raitano, M. (2015) · European Journal of Social Security · doi:10.1177/138826271501700208 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
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Lundberg, I. (2020) · Demography · doi:10.1007/s13524-020-00880-w · Cited by 17 · see citing works
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Schnitzlein, D. D. (2014) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.2501950 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
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Naveed, T. A., Gordon, D., Ullah, S., & Zhang, M. F. (2021) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-020-02594-3 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
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Later and less? New evidence on occupational maturity for Swedish women and men
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Schulz, A., Scholz, R. D., Sewöster, D., & Himmelreicher, R. K. (2008) · WSI-Mitteilungen · doi:10.5771/0342-300x-2008-5-274 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
- Authors
- Haider, S., & Solon, G.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2006-01
- OpenAlex
- W1973477639
- Cited by
- 209
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 11 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 9
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Accounting › Financial Literacy, Pension, Retirement Analysis
- Social Sciences › Demography › Retirement, Disability, and Employment
- Keywords
- errors-in-variables bias, current earnings, lifetime earnings, life cycle, earnings history, social security records, Health and Retirement Study, earnings measurement
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