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Cited by 223Economic Growth and ProductivityRetirement, Disability, and EmploymentMonetary Policy and Economic Impact

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The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity

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Maestas, Nicole, Mullen, Kathleen, Powell, David·2016·National Bureau of Economic Research
DOI 10.3386/w22452
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Abstract

Population aging is expected to slow U.S. economic growth.We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of population aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010.We find that each 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ decreased per-capita GDP by 5.5%.One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds was due to slower labor productivity growth.Labor compensation and wages also declined in response.Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980-2010.

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Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. Barro, Robert J and Xavier Sala-i-Martin (1992). "Convergence." Journal of Political Economy, 100(2), 223-251.
  2. Garofalo, G. A., & Yamarik, S. (2002). Regional convergence: Evidence from a new state-by- state capital stock series. Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2), 316-323.
  3. Santos Silva, JMC, and Silvana Tenreyro (2006). "The log of gravity." The Review of Economics and Statistics 88, no. 4: 641-658.

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Metadata

Authors
Maestas, N., Mullen, K., & Powell, D.
Affiliations
  • University of Southern California (US)
  • RAND Corporation (US)
ORCID
Venue
National Bureau of Economic Research
Publisher
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published
2016-07
DOI
10.3386/w22452
OpenAlex
W2501745975
Cited by
220
References
63
Citations by year
2026: 13 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 1
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Retirement, Disability, and Employment
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Keywords
population aging, economic growth, GDP per capita, labor productivity, labor force growth, job creation, labor compensation, wages, older workers, state-level variation

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