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The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity
Open accessAbstract
Population aging is expected to slow U.S. economic growth.We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of population aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010.We find that each 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ decreased per-capita GDP by 5.5%.One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds was due to slower labor productivity growth.Labor compensation and wages also declined in response.Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980-2010.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Maestas, N., Mullen, K., & Powell, D.
- Affiliations
- University of Southern California (US)
- RAND Corporation (US)
- Venue
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Publisher
- National Bureau of Economic Research
- Published
- 2016-07
- OpenAlex
- W2501745975
- Cited by
- 220
- References
- 63
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 33 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 1
- Type
- report
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Demography › Retirement, Disability, and Employment
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
- Keywords
- population aging, economic growth, GDP per capita, labor productivity, labor force growth, job creation, labor compensation, wages, older workers, state-level variation
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