Cited by 329Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsExperimental Behavioral Economics StudiesMulti-Agent Systems and Negotiation

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 22 of the 22 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 19 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Large Language Models as Simulated Economic Agents: What Can We Learn from Homo Silicus?

Open access
Horton, John, Filippas, Apostolos, Manning, Benjamin·2023·National Bureau of Economic Research

Abstract

Newly-developed large language models (LLM)-because of how they are trained and designed -are implicit computational models of humans-a homo silicus.LLMs can be used like economists use homo economicus: they can be given endowments, information, preferences, and so on, and then their behavior can be explored in scenarios via simulation.Experiments using this approach, derived from Charness and Rabin (2002), Kahneman, Knetsch andThaler (1986), andSamuelson andZeckhauser (1988) show qualitatively similar results to the original, but it is also easy to try variations for fresh insights.LLMs could allow researchers to pilot studies via simulation first, searching for novel social science insights to test in the real world.

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.3386/w31122

Cites

22 of 22 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

0 of 19 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

Show all 50 claims

  • Probably not a substantial claim. 31
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 25
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 4
47 of 47
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The training corpus contains a large amount of written text in which people reason about and discuss economic matters.

    “because the LLMs are trained on a corpus that contains a great deal of written text where people reason about and discuss economic matters: What to buy, how to bargain, how to shop, how to negotiate a job offer, how to make a job offer, how many hours to work, what to do when prices increase, and so on.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Much of the training corpus consists of people reasoning about economic questions and revealing true intentions, rather than people lying about reservation values.

    “The training corpus is not millions of lines of people lying about their reservation values in a bargaining scenario.Much of it is text is about people reasoning how to approach various economic questions, including”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The model is good at generating candidate solutions to an optimization problem like a good Bayesian.

    “But simply prompting the model with”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Demand curves sloping downward result from rational goal-seeking that nearly all humans engage in.

    “We do not think of demand curves sloping downward as a”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    LLMs have read and memorized textbooks and papers and will parrot results back if asked concretely.

    “LLMs have read and memorized our textbooks and papers and will parrot results back to us if asked concretely.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    GPT-3 knows pi and will recite it if asked in textbook language, yet does not know pi or how to apply it in simple real settings.

    “For example, it is clear GPT3 knows π and will recite it if asked for the answer in textbook language, yet it also does not know π or how to apply it in even simple real settings.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The sample in Kahneman et al. (1986) is nationally representative.

    “assuming it is nationally representative”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The labor-labor substitution margin has been noted as a possibility in the literature but is difficult to detect empirically.

    “This labor-labor substitution margin has been noted as a possibility in the literature but is somewhat difficult to detect empirically.”
8 of 8

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • The $20 framing summary conflicts with moderate and libertarian ratings

    Minor

    The framing discussion says all other respondents rated the $20 increase "Unfair," but the results explicitly say moderate and libertarian AIs rated that increase "Acceptable."

  • Approval of large price increases reverses the reported result

    Minor

    "Approbation" means approval, but the results say no AI considered even the $40 price acceptable. The introductory statement reverses the reported direction of the reaction.

  • The listed car-safety allocation differs from the one analyzed

    Minor

    The offered options include 40% for cars and 60% for highways, but the figure and discussion instead analyze 60% for cars and 40% for highways. That changes one of the four allocations in the status quo experiment.

3 of 3

Citations

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Show all 21 references

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. [4]4. Bender, Emily M., Timnit Gebru, Angelina McMillan-Major, and Shmargaret Shmitchell, "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots: Can Language Models Be Too Big? (Parrot Emoji)," in "Proceedings of the 2021 ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency" FAccT '21 Association for Computing Machinery New York, NY, USA 2021, p. 610-623.
  2. [18]18. Simon, Herbert A., The Sciences of the Artificial, 3rd Edition, Vol. 1 of MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, September 1996.

Cited by

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Items 301–328 of 328

Metadata

Authors
Horton, J., Filippas, A., & Manning, B.
Affiliations
National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
Corresponding author
Horton, John
Venue
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published
2023-04
OpenAlex
W4363624465
Cited by
329
References
21
Citations by year
2026: 103 · 2025: 107 · 2024: 75 · 2023: 42
Type
report
Language
en
Open access
Locations
National Bureau of Economic Research (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Multi-Agent Systems and Negotiation
Keywords
large language models, homo economicus, behavioral economics, preference elicitation, endowment effect, pilot study

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