MRI Characterizes the Progressive Course of AD and Predicts Conversion to Alzheimer’s Dementia 24 Months Before Probable Diagnosis
Open accessAbstract
There is no disease-modifying treatment currently available for AD, one of the more impacting neurodegenerative diseases affecting more than 47.5 million people worldwide. The definition of new approaches for the design of proper clinical trials is highly demanded in order to achieve non-confounding results and assess more effective treatment. In this study, a cohort of 200 subjects was obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Subjects were followed-up for 24 months, and classified as AD (50), progressive-MCI to AD (50), stable-MCI (50), and cognitively normal (50). Structural T1-weighted MRI brain studies and neuropsychological measures of these subjects were used to train and optimize an artificial-intelligence classifier to distinguish mild-AD patients who need treatment (AD + pMCI) from subjects who do not need treatment (sMCI + CN). The classifier was able to distinguish between the two groups 24 months before AD definite diagnosis using a combination of MRI brain studies and specific neuropsychological measures, with 85% accuracy, 83% sensitivity, and 87% specificity. The combined-approach model outperformed the classification using MRI data alone (72% classification accuracy, 69% sensitivity, and 75% specificity). The patterns of morphological abnormalities localized in the temporal pole and medial-temporal cortex might be considered as biomarkers of clinical progression and evolution. These regions can be already observed 24 months before AD definite diagnosis. The best neuropsychological predictors mainly included measures of functional abilities, memory and learning, working memory, language, visuoconstructional reasoning, and complex attention, with a particular focus on some of the sub-scores of the FAQ and AVLT tests.
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Using machine learning to quantify neurodegeneration patterns in structural MRI, studies have predicted MCI conversion to AD with modest accuracy ranging from 63 to 85% depending on the cohort, imaging modality and models used.
“Using machine learning to quantify neurodegeneration patterns in structural MRI, studies have managed to predict MCI conversion to AD with modest accuracy ranging from 63 to 85% depending on the cohort, imaging modality and models used [25–27].”
From The use of neuroimaging techniques in the early and differential diagnosis of dementia (2023) · cites this paper as [27]
The Discussion reports that machine-learning studies using structural MRI to distinguish progressive from stable MCI had varying accuracies, supporting the general point. But its reported MRI-only range is 51–75%, not 63–85%. The paper’s 85% result (Abstract; Discussion) used MRI plus neuropsychological measures and classified a broader group than MCI conversion alone. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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Cites
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Neuropathological stageing of Alzheimer-related changes.
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The Alzheimer’s disease neuroimaging initiative (ADNI): MRI methods
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Bias in error estimation when using cross-validation for model selection
Varma, S., & Simon, R. (2006) · BMC Bioinformatics · doi:10.1186/1471-2105-7-91 · Cited by 2,485 · cited 1× · see citing works
“Wrapper feature selection and optimization were performed using a fivefold Nested-Cross-Validation (Nested CV) approach (Varma and Simon, 2006).”
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“However, they are insufficient for detecting early AD subjects, considering also that only 33% of subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progress to AD (Mitchell and Shiri-Feshki, 2009).”
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Lombardi, G., Crescioli, G., Cavedo, E., Lucenteforte, E., Casazza, G., Bellatorre, A.-G., Lista, C., Costantino, G., Frisoni, G., Virgili, G., et al. (2020) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd009628.pub2 · Cited by 214 · see citing works
The use of neuroimaging techniques in the early and differential diagnosis of dementia
Chouliaras, L., & O’Brien, J. T. (2023) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41380-023-02215-8 · Cited by 186 · see citing works
“Using machine learning to quantify neurodegeneration patterns in structural MRI, studies have managed to predict MCI conversion to AD with modest accuracy ranging from 63 to 85% depending on the cohort, imaging modality and models used [25 – 27].”
MethodZhang, H., Ni, M., Yang, Y., Xie, F., Wang, W., He, Y., Chen, W., & Chen, Z. (2025) · Biomedical Signal Processing and Control · doi:10.1016/j.bspc.2024.107085 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Liu, N., Liang, X., Yang, C., Hu, S., Luo, Q., & Luo, H. (2022) · Theranostics · doi:10.7150/thno.76574 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
- Authors
- Salvatore, C., Cerasa, A., & Castiglioni, I.
- Affiliations
- Institute of Molecular Bioimaging and Physiology (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Castiglioni, Isabella
- Venue
- Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience
- Publisher
- Frontiers Media SA
- Published
- 2018-05-24
- Volume
- 10
- Pages
- 135-135
- ISSN
- 1663-4365 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5977985
- OpenAlex
- W2802777797
- Cited by
- 78
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 15 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 6.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- BOA (University of Milano-Bicocca) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Defense (U01 AG024904, W81XWH, W81XWH-12-2-, W81XWH1220012, AG024904)
- Alzheimer's Association (U01 AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-0012)
- Bristol-Myers Squibb (U01 AG024904, AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-0012)
- Eli Lilly and Company (U01 AG024904, AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-0012)
- Pfizer (AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-0012, U01 AG024904)
- Biogen (W81XWH-12-2-0012, U01 AG024904, AG024904)
- F. Hoffmann-La Roche (W81XWH-12-2-0012, AG024904, U01 AG024904)
- Meso Scale Diagnostics (U01 AG024904, AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-0012)
- Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (W81XWH-12-2–0012, U01AG024904, AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-)
- BioClinica (U01 AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-0012, AG024904)
- Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation (W81XWH-12-2-0012, U01 AG024904, AG024904)
- Eisai (W81XWH-12-2-0012, U01 AG024904, AG024904)
- Servier (AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-0012, U01 AG024904)
- H. Lundbeck A/S (U01 AG024904, AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-0012)
- IXICO (AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-0012, U01 AG024904)
- National Institutes of Health (3u01ag024904-10s2, W81XWH, W81XWH-12-2-0012, U01-AG024904, AG024904)
- Genentech (W81XWH-12-2-0012, AG024904, U01 AG024904)
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research (U01 AG024904, W81XWH-12-2-0012)
- National Institute on Aging (U01-AG-024904)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Cancer-related cognitive impairment studies
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease, mild cognitive impairment, conversion to dementia, structural MRI, T1-weighted imaging, artificial intelligence classifiers, neuropsychological measures, temporal pole, medial temporal cortex, Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, functional capacity, disease progression biomarkers
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