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Cited by 6Diverse Aspects of Tourism ResearchEvacuation and Crowd DynamicsUrbanism, Landscape, and Tourism Studies

Agent-Based Model Applied for the Study of Overtourism in an Urban Context

Open access
Moreno, Janwar, Parada, Jairo, Peña-Miranda, David Daniel·2025·Sustainability
DOI 10.3390/su17073248
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Abstract

This research aims to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of residents and tourists in an urban context, assessing the risk of overtourism. To achieve this, a tourist city is conceptualized as a complex system and examined through an agent-based model (ABM), which simulates the interactions between heterogeneous agents and their environment. This computational approach enables the exploration of emergent spatial-temporal patterns and facilitates the interpretation of overtourism as a real-world experiment. The case study focuses on Santa Marta (Colombia), a well-established coastal destination currently facing potential entry into a phase of tourism decline if management remains reactive. Simulation results reveal a high risk of overtourism and illustrate the differentiated effects of two plausible management strategies at distinct spatial scales. Additionally, this study proposes a tourism intensity indicator, addressing the problem of overestimating tourism pressure in existing metrics. The proposed model offers a valuable decision-support tool for assessing impacts and designing proactive management measures in destinations experiencing rapid tourist growth across multiple spatial and temporal dimensions.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This paper develops an agent-based model of Santa Marta, Colombia, to simulate resident–tourist spatial-temporal dynamics and assess overtourism risk under two management strategies. It finds high baseline overtourism risk and proposes a person-years-lived tourism intensity indicator (\(I_{sm}\)) that gives lower intensity estimates than conventional metrics.

Key findings

  • Under baseline scenario \(E_0\), all simulations showed high overtourism risk: \(I_{pt}\), \(D_{wt}\), \(D_{pt}\), and \(C_{wt}\) were in quintile \(Q_5\), while \(I_{wt}\) was in \(Q_3\); \(I_{wt}\) exceeded 2.5 in all experiments. Across all simulations, annual tourists ranged from 1,159,402 to 1,194,110.
  • The proposed \(I_{sm}\) estimated that tourists added 15,635–15,838 person-years lived in \(E_0\) (15,549–16,025 across all experiments), giving \(I_{sm}\) = 0.034–0.035, i.e., about 3.5% annual population growth from floating tourists, compared with DANE’s 1.74% annual growth for the municipal seat (2005–2020). The paper estimates Santa Marta’s tourist carrying capacity as 2,404,076 visits/year for \(E_0\) if all diagnostic indicators reach \(Q_5\).
  • Management measure \(M_1\) (increasing tourist-use SIT MZs) reduced concentration from \(Q_5\) to \(Q_4\) in some experiments. \(M_2\) (real-time crowding communication) and the combined scenario \(E_3\) showed no clear concentration pattern; \(E_2\) decreased average tourist density in Minca and Centro Histórico but increased it elsewhere, while \(E_3\) decreased it in Minca and Rodadero but increased it elsewhere.
  • Tourist density was higher in Rodadero, Minca, Bello Horizonte, Taganga, and Centro Histórico, with increases also identified in Pozos Colorados and Mamatoco. Temporally, population density peaked at tourist sites between 10:00 and 16:00, then shifted toward lodging and residence areas at night.

Methods

  • The study uses an agent-based model (ABM) following the ODD+2D protocol, implemented in GAMA with GIS data. The artificial world covers 358 km², including Santa Marta’s urban area and Minca; spatial units are blocks (MZs) grouped into Zones of Tourist Interest (ZITs). Agents are residents (453,527 people from Colombia’s 2018 census) and tourists entering daily, simulated in one-hour steps over 2018.
  • Input data include 2018 monthly plane arrivals to Santa Marta, FONTUR data on average stay and travel-group size, and GIS layers from DANE, OpenStreetMap, and the Santa Marta Land Management Plan. The model runs 40 simulations, with 10 experiments each for \(E_0\) (no measure), \(E_1\) (\(M_1\)), \(E_2\) (\(M_2\)), and \(E_3\) (combined \(M_1\)+\(M_2\)).
  • Analysis uses diagnostic indicators of tourism intensity, density, and concentration based on Peeters et al. and WTTC/McKinsey&Company, plus the proposed \(I_{sm}\) indicator using person-years lived (PYL). Risk is classified by quintiles, and spatial-temporal density changes are examined at MZ and ZIT scales.

Limitations

  • Stated: the model does not capture qualitative or perceptual dimensions such as resident satisfaction, environmental degradation, or economic displacement; it does not differentiate tourist segments such as day-trippers, cruise tourists, or long-stay visitors; lack of robust statistical data limits comparison with empirical patterns; no direct stakeholder consultation was included; real-time crowd monitoring may be constrained by limited technological infrastructure, uneven internet connectivity, and institutional capacity; and the strategies may have unintended consequences or inequitable effects.
  • Evident from the text: the model relies on 2018 data and a qualitative approximation of SIT visit probabilities from local media; the resident recreation parameter was set to 1%; validation is limited to alignment with qualitative observations by Pupo and Londoño; and the study is described as exploratory.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.3390/su17073248

Cites

37 of 37 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

11 of 76 cited sources checked · 5 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Findingown data

    Simulation results reveal a high risk of overtourism in Santa Marta.

    “Simulation results reveal a high risk of overtourism and illustrate the differentiated effects of two plausible management strategies at distinct spatial scales.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Simulation results illustrate differentiated effects of two plausible management strategies at distinct spatial scales.

    “Simulation results reveal a high risk of overtourism and illustrate the differentiated effects of two plausible management strategies at distinct spatial scales.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    In this research, the Iwt value was above 2.5 in all experiments.

    “For this research, a value above 2.5 was estimated in all the experiments.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    From the first three months, there are already signs of a considerable increase in density.

    “from the first three months, there are already signs of a considerable increase in density.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    In some experiments, the concentration goes from Q5 in E0 to Q4 in the respective Ei.

    “in some experiments, the concentration goes from Q 5 in E 0 to Q 4 in the respective E i (see Table 11).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 31
  • May combine two claims. 20

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Urban overtourism is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon.

    “taking this into account, it is known that urban overtourism is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon [10].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Premisecitation

    Overtourism is a complex and multifaceted issue.

    “Overtourism itself is a complex and multifaceted issue [10].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The tourist area life cycle is a model of tourist destinations that analyzes the number of visits through sequential stages and possible future trends, explained by a variety of factors.

    “TALC is a model of tourist destinations, which analyzes the number of visits through sequential stages and possible future trends, explained by a variety of factors [26].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [26] source

      Section 2.2 describes TALC as a sequence of development phases, including possible decline or revitalization, based primarily on the annual number of visitors. It does not explain those trajectories through a variety of factors as the citing sentence suggests. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Overtourism has generally been accepted as a negative outcome of unsustainable tourism practices, particularly in urban environments, where it has been most intensely debated.

    “Overtourism has generally been accepted as a negative outcome of unsustainable tourism practices, particularly in urban environments, where it has been most intensely debated [31];”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] source

      Section 2.1 (page unavailable) describes overtourism as the detrimental impacts of mass tourism and says it negatively affects residents’ quality of life or visitors’ experiences. The paper does not establish that overtourism has been debated most intensely in urban environments, so that part of the claim is unsupported. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Tourist carrying capacity establishes a theoretical threshold beyond which tourism pressures become unsustainable.

    “TCC establishes a theoretical threshold beyond which tourism pressures become unsustainable; we can see this approach in Koens et al. [4], UNWTO [10], WTTC and McKin-sey&Company [15]”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim3 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [4] source
    • cites [10] source
    • cites [15] source

      The Introduction discusses excessive tourism growth and its effects, and the Conclusions refer to limits of acceptable tourism growth. Neither section states that tourist carrying capacity establishes a theoretical threshold beyond which tourism becomes unsustainable; the paper mentions carrying capacity only in reference titles. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The MZs are grouped by geographical zones of tourist interest (ZITs), a characterization developed in the POT (Zoning Land Plan) of Santa Marta of 2020.

    “The MZ are grouped by geographical zones of tourist interest (ZITs), a characterization developed in the POT (Zoning Land Plan) of Santa Marta of 2020 [40]”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [40] source

      The Overview and Data structure sections describe six districts in Marrakesh for a residential-mobility model. Searches for Santa Marta, ZITs, tourist-interest zones, and the 2020 POT found no passage addressing the claimed grouping of MZs. (LLM, conf=0.75)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The Limits of Acceptable Change focuses on the maximum level of alteration that residents of a destination are willing to tolerate.

    “In light of these limitations, the concept of the Limits of Acceptable Change (LAC) has been proposed, which focuses on the maximum level of alteration that residents of a destination are willing to tolerate [4].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Without a destination management policy, the next stage after stagnation and consolidation is decline.

    “TALC is used in overtourism in connection with the destination stages of stagnation and consolidation, which also shows that without a destination management policy, the next stage is decline; this model is used in Dodds and Butler [6], Widz and Brzezi ńska-Wójcik [19], Abbasian et al. [20], Zmyślony et al. [21], Kim et al. [22].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [6] source
    • cites [19] source
    • cites [20] source

      The Discussion (section 4; page unavailable) says consolidation and stagnation precede decline, and the Methods (section 2; page unavailable) identifies decline or rejuvenation as later TALC phases. The Conclusions (section 5; page unavailable) recommends management measures to prevent overtourism, but the paper does not say that lacking a destination management policy makes decline the next stage. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The methodology proposed by WTTC and McKinsey&Company uses information from Tripadvisor and classifies the 5 most visited MZs for the concentration indicator and the 20 most visited MZs for density.

    “For the diagnostic indicators, the methodology proposed by WTTC and McKin-sey&Company [15] was used, which uses information from Tripadvisor.This methodology classifies the 5 most visited MZs for the concentration indicator and the 20 most visited MZs for density.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [15] source

      The Methodology section describes interviews, participant observation and field diaries, not a WTTC–McKinsey diagnostic method. Searches of our copy for Tripadvisor, concentration and density indicators, and the five- and twenty-zone classifications found no passage addressing the claim. The retrieved sections have no page numbers. (LLM, conf=0.76)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    There is a general pattern where densities increase in tourist sites during daylight hours, but once tourists and residents return to places of lodging and residence, the other MZs increase the population density values.

    “there is a general pattern where densities increase in tourist sites during daylight hours, but once tourists and residents return to places of lodging and residence, the other MZs increase the population density values.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Under the conditions established in the model, there was a high risk of overtourism in all simulations: the indicators Ipt, Dwt, Dpt, and Cwt are in Q5, while Iwt was located in Q3.

    “The diagnostic indicators show that under the conditions established in the model, there was a high risk of overtourism in all the simulations: the indicators I pt , D wt , D pt , and C wt are in the Q 5 , while I wt was located in Q 3 (see Table 11).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Pozos Colorados has a low population density with a low density of tourism, indicating that it is an area of low intensity of use by residents and tourists.

    “Pozos Colorados, which has a low population density with a low density of tourism, indicating that it is an area of low intensity of use by residents and tourists (see Table 12).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Tourists add a total person-year lived (PYL) corresponding to the tourist carrying (Xt) received by the system, with a range between 15,635 and 15,838, which corresponds to an Ism = 0.035.

    “it was estimated that tourists add a total person-year lived (PYL), which corresponds to the tourist carrying (X t ) received by the system, with a range between 15,635 and 15,838, which corresponds to a I sm = 0.035.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Residents use the territory all year round, while tourists use it for much shorter intervals.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    The findings offer broader applicability to other urban destinations, serving as a transferable analytical tool and supporting evidence-based, proactive governance.

    “Moreover, the findings offer broader applicability to other urban destinations, serving as a transferable analytical tool and supporting evidence-based, proactive governance.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    An agent-based model is a type of computational modeling where a phenomenon is analyzed or modeled in terms of agents and their interactions.

    “in the complex systems paradigm, we have the agent-based model, which is a type of computation modeling where a phenomenon is analyzed by agents and their interactions [28].”
    • Also stated in: § 2. Materials and Methods · plain
      “this research generated computational simulations under the paradigm of an agent-based model (ABM), which is a form of computational modeling, where a phenomenon is modeled in terms of agents and their interaction [28].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [28] source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Tourist carrying capacity is neither fixed nor static, and cannot be reduced to a simple numerical relationship, as it is influenced by various dynamic factors.

    “The tourist carrying capacity (TCC) is neither fixed nor static, and it cannot be reduced to a simple numerical relationship, as it is influenced by various dynamic factors, such as technological advancement, social preferences, production and consumption patterns, and the complex interaction between the physical and biotic environments [27].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [27] source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Overtourism is a massive phenomenon where the balance between optimality and excessive development is broken.

    “In conclusion, overtourism is a massive phenomenon where the balance between optimality and excessive development is broken [11];”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [11]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Studying a context such as Santa Marta contributes to broadening the understanding of overtourism beyond the traditional Global North hotspots.

    “Studying such a context contributes to broadening the understanding of overtourism beyond the traditional Global North hotspots.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Santa Marta is a medium-sized coastal city in a developing country context where tourism has grown rapidly in recent years.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Premisecitation

    A tourist city should be understood as a complex system, composed of multiple individual elements whose interactions give rise to emergent phenomena that cannot be predicted by analyzing each agent in isolation.

    “Consequently, a tourist city should be understood as a complex system, one composed of multiple individual elements whose interactions give rise to emergent phenomena that cannot be predicted by analyzing each agent in isolation; in the complex systems paradigm, we have the agent-based model, which is a type of computation modeling where a phenomenon is analyzed by agents and their interactions [2”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Santa Marta is an ideal case for testing the applicability of overtourism models in destinations characterized by limited institutional capacity, high scenic attractiveness, and the absence of proactive tourism management strategies.

    “This makes Santa Marta an ideal case for testing the applicability of overtourism models in destinations characterized by limited institutional capacity, high scenic attractiveness, and the absence of proactive tourism management strategies.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Santa Marta is a medium-sized coastal city in a developing country context where tourism has grown rapidly in recent years.
    • Rests on an assumption: Despite increasing pressures, the overtourism phenomenon has not yet been formally recognized in local planning frameworks in Santa Marta.
    • Rests on an assumption: Santa Marta is currently facing potential entry into a phase of tourism decline if management remains reactive.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Agent-based modeling can generate possible scenarios and study the effects of economic policies.

    “It can generate possible scenarios and study the effects of economic policies [35]”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [35] source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The study proposes a tourism intensity indicator that addresses the problem of overestimating tourism pressure in existing metrics.

    “Additionally, this study proposes a tourism intensity indicator, addressing the problem of overestimating tourism pressure in existing metrics.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Overtourism is not only a question of numbers; it also involves multiple elements, including tourist behavior.

    “it is not only a question of numbers, which already negatively impact the quality of life of residents [12], it also involves multiple elements, including tourist behavior [13].”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [12] source
    • cites [13] source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Peeters et al. [8] defined tourism intensity (Intensity_pt) as the ratio between the number of lodging nights and the number of residents.

    “Peeters et al. [8] elaborated two indicators: tourism intensity (Intensity_pt), which is the ratio between the number of lodging nights and the number of residents”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Peeters et al. [8]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The number of residents in the global environment is 453,527 people, distributed according to the 2018 Population and Housing Census of Colombia across the different MZs.

    “Taking into account the results of the Population and Housing Census of Colombia 2018, the number of residents in the global environment is 453,527 people, distributed according to the results of the Census in the different MZs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Population and Housing Census of Colombia 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    WTTC and McKinsey&Company [15] defined tourism concentration (Concentration_wt) as the ratio between the number of tourists to attractions in the top 5 of the destination and the number of tourists in the destination.

    “tourism concentration (Concentration_wt), which is the ratio between the number of tourists to attractions in the top 5 of the destination (see Table 6) and the number of tourists in the destination.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites WTTC and McKinsey&Company [15]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Peeters et al. [8] defined tourism density (Density_pt) as the ratio between the number of lodging nights and the destination area.

    “tourism density (Density_pt), which is the ratio between the number of lodging nights and the destination area.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Peeters et al. [8]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The concept of person-years lived (PYL) is used for the construction of mortality tables and the calculation of life expectancy in demography.

    “This concept of PYL is used for the construction of mortality tables and the calculation of life expectancy in demography [55].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [55]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Geographic data for MZ lodging, SIT MZs, and the road network were obtained from Fundación OpenStreetMap, with SIT MZs enriched by the Magdalena Tourist Guide prepared by MinCIT.

    “Geographic data were obtained from Fundación OpenStreetMap [45], and the variables obtained were: (1) MZ lodging (MZs with places of lodging), enriched with information from MZs that have temporary housing from DANE [44] and are located within a ZIT; (2) MZs with sites of tourist interest (SIT MZs) and associated attributes, enriched with the Magdalena Tourist Guide, prepared by MinCIT [46]; and (”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [45]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [46]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The model can show population and tourist distribution, changes in population density, and changes in tourist density.

    “it is possible to know the population and tourist distribution into the destination, changes in the population density and the tourist density”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: There are three entry MZs for Santa Marta: the highway entrance from the south, on the road that connects with the municipality of Ciénaga; the entrance from Simón Bolívar international airport; and the road entrance from the northeast, by the road that connects with Tayrona Park.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    WTTC and McKinsey&Company [15] defined tourism density (Density_wt) as the ratio between the number of tourists and the area of the 20 attractions with the most visits.

    “tourism density (Density_wt), which is the ratio between the number of tourists and the area of the 20 attractions with the most visit”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites WTTC and McKinsey&Company [15]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    WTTC and McKinsey&Company [15] defined tourism intensity (Intensity_wt) as the ratio between the number of tourists and the number of residents.

    “WTTC and McKinsey&Company [15] elaborated three indicators: tourism intensity (Intensity_wt), which is the ratio between the number of tourists and the number of residents”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites WTTC and McKinsey&Company [15]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The average length of stay (in nights, excluding people who do not stay overnight) and the average size of the travel group for the Department of Magdalena are based on empirical observations from FONTUR.

    “Data from empirical observations for the Department of Magdalena of FONTUR [43] were used: (1) average length of stay, which is measured in nights and does not include people who do not stay overnight and (2) the average size of the travel group.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [43]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The average speed of agents is 30 km/h, according to empirical evidence estimated by Roda.

    “the average speed is 30 km/h, according to empirical evidence estimated by Roda [42]”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [42] source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The Colombian Geostatistical Framework for the 2018 census of DANE provides census information on the number of residents for each MZ and identifies MZs with temporary housing.

    “The base layer is the Colombian Geostatistical Framework for the 2018 census of DANE [44]; this base provided census information on the number of residents for each MZ, and the MZ that has temporary housing.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [44]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The quintile scales generated by WTTC and McKinsey&Company [15] and Peeters et al. [8] identify destinations with a high risk of overtourism as those in the first quintile (Q1), while location in higher quintiles indicates a lower risk.

    “the scales by quintiles generated by WTTC and McKinsey&Company [15] and Peeters et al. [8] were used, which identify destinations with a high risk of overtourism as those who are in first quintile (Q 1 ), while the location in higher quintiles indicates a lower risk of the presence of the phenomenon.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites WTTC and McKinsey&Company [15]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Peeters et al. [8]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    GAMA facilitates the use of geographic information and can handle numerous agents.

    “The software used in the simulation was GAMA, which facilitates the use of geographic information and can handle numerous agents [41].”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [41]

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationnone given

    The model provides a novel proposed indicator of tourism intensity (I_sm).

    “a novel proposed indicator of the tourism intensity (I sm )”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: There are three entry MZs for Santa Marta: the highway entrance from the south, on the road that connects with the municipality of Ciénaga; the entrance from Simón Bolívar international airport; and the road entrance from the northeast, by the road that connects with Tayrona Park.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The Santa Marta Land Management Plan (2020-2032) generated a spatial category called zones of tourist interest (ZITs), which are spaces of importance for the city's tourist activity.

    “The Santa Marta Land Management Plan (2020-2032) generated a spatial category called zones of tourist interest (ZITs), which are spaces of importance for the city's tourist activity.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Santa Marta Land Management Plan (2020-2032)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Centro Histórico maintains high population densities as a result of the population residing in the area, and it is less influenced by tourism.

    “The Centro Histórico maintains high population densities as a result of the population residing in the area, and it is less influenced by tourism.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The two management measures evaluated do not change the number of tourists entering the urban system; they only affect the spatial and temporal distribution of visitors within the destination.

    “None of the measures make changes in the number of tourists that enter the urban system, since it is an undesirable measure for the actors of the tourism sector and difficult to apply; in this sense, the measures only have an effect on the spatial and temporal distribution of visitors within the destination.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The agent-based modeling approach provides a foundation for objective experimentation, adaptive planning, and future integration of qualitative and participatory elements in overtourism research.

    “This approach provides a foundation for objective experimentation, adaptive planning, and future integration of qualitative and participatory elements in overtourism research.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    By construction, the diagnostic indicators have a direct relationship with the number of visits.

    “by construction, the indicators have a direct relationship with the number of visits (see Table 11).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
43 of 43

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Santa Marta is a medium-sized coastal city in a developing country context where tourism has grown rapidly in recent years.

    “Santa Marta represents a medium-sized coastal city in a developing country context, where tourism has grown rapidly in recent years.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Despite increasing pressures, the overtourism phenomenon has not yet been formally recognized in local planning frameworks in Santa Marta.

    “Despite increasing pressures, the overtourism phenomenon has not yet been formally recognized in local planning frameworks.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Santa Marta is currently facing potential entry into a phase of tourism decline if management remains reactive.

    “The case study focuses on Santa Marta (Colombia), a well-established coastal destination currently facing potential entry into a phase of tourism decline if management remains reactive.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There are limited conceptual, theoretical, and practical approaches to analyze the complex interaction of agents in cities with overtourism.

    “In the search for strategies for the development of responsible and sustainable tourism in cities, there are limited conceptual, theoretical, and practical approaches to analyze the complex interaction of agents in the cities with the presence of overtourism.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Current approaches tend to overlook the emergent dynamics that arise from interactions among agents in cities with overtourism.

    “Current approaches tend to overlook the emergent dynamics that arise from these interactionsdynamics that are critical to both theory building and informed decision making.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The tourist area life cycle model is constrained by its assumption of a single, linear pattern of destination development and its reliance on a homogeneous market structure.

    “On the other hand, the tourist area life cycle (TALC) model is constrained by its assumption of a single, linear pattern of destination development and its reliance on a homogeneous market structure.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There are three entry MZs for Santa Marta: the highway entrance from the south, on the road that connects with the municipality of Ciénaga; the entrance from Simón Bolívar international airport; and the road entrance from the northeast, by the road that connects with Tayrona Park.

    “There are three MZs: the highway entrance from the south, on the road that connects with the municipality of Ciénaga; the entrance from Simón Bolívar international airport; and the road entrance from the northeast, by the road that connects with Tayrona Park (see Figure 3).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There is no robust information system in Santa Marta for the collection, communication, and validation of information from the tourism sector.

    “there is no robust information system in the city for the collection, communication, and validation of information from the sector.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The two management measures are plausible in the short term (one year) and observable with the parameters and variables of the model.

    “The measures were selected because they are plausible measures in the short term (one year) and observable with the parameters and variables of this model.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Residents use the territory all year round, while tourists use it for much shorter intervals.

    “while residents use the territory all year round, tourists do so at much shorter intervals.”
10 of 10

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • The cited source for the attraction list does not match reference 48

    Minor

    Table 6 attributes its attraction list to Tripadvisor [48], but reference 48 is a news item by Redacción CV Noticias, not Tripadvisor.

  • An effect is attributed to an undefined third measure

    Minor

    The results refer to measures M 2 and M 3, but the scenario definitions introduce only M 1 and M 2; E 3 is their combination, not a third measure.

  • The stated simulation-step range does not cover the stated year

    Minor

    Table 1 limits the step variable to 1-760, whereas the methods later specify 8,760 hourly steps for the year.

  • The Q2 concentration rule overlaps Q1

    Minor

    As printed, Q2 requires concentration below 22, while Q1 already includes every value at or below 22. This also leaves values between 22 and 29 without a concentration quintile.

  • The lower end of the reported intensity range is misstated

    Minor

    The results describe the entire 15,635-15,838 range as corresponding to I sm = 0.035, but Table 11 reports 0.034 for the experiment with 15,635.

5 of 5

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

5 of the 42 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 4

  1. The MIT Press (2015). Why agent-based modelling?. An Introduction to Agent-Based Modelling, MIT. Chapter 1.
  2. Aguilera, O.A., and Posada, C.M. (2018). ¿Qué son los sistemas basados en agentes?. Introducción al Modelado Basado en Agentes. Una Aproximación Desde NetLogo, El Colegio de San Luis. Chapter 2.
  3. Pressat, R. (2000). Fenómenos demográficos en una generación. El análisis Demográfico. Métodos, Resultados, Aplicaciones, Tercera ed., Fondo de Cultura Económica. Chapter I.
  4. Fabian, A.C. (1998). La evolución de Londres. Evolución. Sociedad, Ciencia y Universo, METATEMAS. Chapter 5.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Moreno, J., Parada, J., & Peña-Miranda, D. D.
Affiliations
  • University of Pamplona (CO)
  • Department of Economics, Universidad del Norte, Puerto Colombia 081007, Colombia
  • Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Universidad del Magdalena, Santa Marta 470004, Colombia
ORCID
Venue
Sustainability
Publisher
MDPI AG
Published
2025-04-05
Volume
17
Issue
7
Pages
3248
ISSN
2071-1050 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.3390/su17073248
OpenAlex
W4409335038
Semantic Scholar
9c2f80458b0a493d1785babbddc8c9c831c8b22c
Cited by
6
References
42
Citations by year
2026: 4 · 2025: 2
FWCI
10.98
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Sustainability (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
University of Magdalena (Santa Marta, Colombia)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Ocean Engineering › Evacuation and Crowd Dynamics
  • Social Sciences › Cultural Studies › Urbanism, Landscape, and Tourism Studies
Keywords
overtourism, urban tourism, agent-based modeling, tourism development strategy, Santa Marta, coastal tourism destinations, tourism pressure

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-13.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-13.

Cited sources are checked by gpt-6-sol.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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