A time series analysis of weather variables and all-cause mortality in the Kasena-Nankana Districts of Northern Ghana, 1995–2010
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INTRODUCTION: Climate and weather variability can have significant health consequences of increased morbidity and mortality. However, today the impact of climate and weather variability, and consequentially, of climate change on population health in sub-Saharan Africa is not well understood. In this study, we assessed the association of daily temperature and precipitation with daily mortality by age and sex groups in Northern Ghana. METHODS: We analysed daily mortality and weather data from 1995 to 2010. We adopted a time-series Poisson regression approach to examine the short-term association of daily mean temperature and daily mean precipitation with daily mortality. We included time factors and daily lagged weather predictors and considered autocorrelation. RESULTS: For all populations, a statistically significant association of mean daily temperature with mortality at lag days 0-1 was observed below and above the 25th (27.48°C) and 75th (30.68°C) percentiles (0.19%; 95% confidence interval CI: 0.05%, 0.21%) and (1.14%; 95% CI: 0.12%, 1.54%), respectively. We also observed a statistically significant association of mean daily temperature above 75th percentile at lag days 2-6 and lag days 7-13 (0.32%; 95% CI: 0.16%, 0.25%) and 0.31% [95% CI: 0.14%, 0.26%]), respectively. A 10 mm increase in precipitation was associated with a 1.71% (95% CI: 0.10%, 3.34.9%) increase in mortality for all ages and sex groups at lag days 2-6. Similar results were also observed at lag days 2-6 and 14-27 for males, 2.92% (95% CI: 0.80%, 5.09%) and 2.35% (95% CI: 0.28%, 4.45%). CONCLUSION: Short-term weather variability is strongly associated with mortality in Northern Ghana. The associations appear to differ among different age and sex groups. The elderly and young children were found to be more susceptible to short-term temperature-related mortality. The association of precipitation with mortality is more pronounced at the short-term for all age and sex groups and in the medium short-term among males. Reducing exposure to extreme temperature, particularly among the elderly and young children, should reduce the number of daily deaths attributable to weather-related mortality.
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Multiple studies in low-income and middle-income settings quantified the detrimental effect of heatwaves on child mortality rates, with some exceptions.
“and multiple studies in low-income and middle-income settings [26][27][28] quantified the detrimental effect of heatwaves on child mortality rates, with some exceptions to this observed association.29”
From Climate change and child health: A scoping review and an expanded conceptual framework (2021) · cites this paper as [26]
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Kovács, B., Dottolo, E., Brugger, K., Handra, N., Chalupka, A., Miklos, J., Richter, L., & Wipplinger, J. (2026) · JBI Evidence Synthesis · doi:10.11124/jbies-25-00259
Traoré, N., Zabré, P., Millogo, O., Sié, A., & Vounatsou, P. (2026) · Journal of Global Health · doi:10.7189/jogh.16.04080
Silva, S., Whittaker, V., Goosby, E., & Reid, M. J. A. (2026) · Health Affairs Scholar · doi:10.1093/haschl/qxag050
Brou, K. E., Kouakou, Y. E., Koné, B., Dely, I. D., Doumbia, M., Douagui, A. G., Luchters, S. M. F., Chersich, M., & Cissé, G. (2026) · Climate · doi:10.3390/cli14080164
- Authors
- Azongo, D. K., Awine, T., Wak, G., Binka, F. N., & Rexford Oduro, A.
- Affiliations
- Navrongo Health Research Centre (GH)
- University of Health and Allied Sciences (GH)
- Navrongo Health Research Centre, Ghana Health Service , Navrongo, Ghana
- Corresponding author
- Azongo, Daniel K.
- Venue
- Global Health Action
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2012-11-23
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 19073
- ISSN
- 1654-9716 (ISSN-L)
- 1654-9880
- PMC
- PMC3508691
- OpenAlex
- W2124198991
- Cited by
- 64
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 3 · 2014: 2 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 1.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Global Health Action (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Funders
- Rockefeller Foundation
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Keywords
- weather variability, all-cause mortality, temperature-mortality relationship, climate change and health, age and sex differences, Northern Ghana, sub-Saharan Africa, Poisson regression, autocorrelation, cold exposure, air pollution
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Ghana, Humans, Infant, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Rain, Seasons, Sex Factors, Temperature, Weather, Poisson Distribution, Young Adult
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