Time-series analysis of weather and mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements
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BACKGROUND: Many studies have established a link between weather (primarily temperature) and daily mortality in developed countries. However, little is known about this relationship in urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to describe the relationship between daily weather and mortality in Nairobi, Kenya, and to evaluate this relationship with regard to cause of death, age, and sex. METHODS: We utilized mortality data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System and applied time-series models to study the relationship between daily weather and mortality for a population of approximately 60,000 during the period 2003-2008. We used a distributed lag approach to model the delayed effect of weather on mortality, stratified by cause of death, age, and sex. RESULTS: Increasing temperatures (above 75th percentile) were significantly associated with mortality in children and non-communicable disease (NCD) deaths. We found all-cause mortality of shorter lag of same day and previous day to increase by 3.0% for a 1 degree decrease from the 25th percentile of 18°C (not statistically significant). Mortality among people aged 50+ and children aged below 5 years appeared most susceptible to cold compared to other age groups. Rainfall, in the lag period of 0-29 days, increased all-cause mortality in general, but was found strongest related to mortality among females. Low temperatures were associated with deaths due to acute infections, whereas rainfall was associated with all-cause pneumonia and NCD deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in mortality were associated with both hot and cold weather as well as rainfall in Nairobi, but the relationship differed with regard to age, sex, and cause of death. Our findings indicate that weather-related mortality is a public health concern for the population in the informal settlements of Nairobi, Kenya, especially if current trends in climate change continue.
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Multiple studies in low-income and middle-income settings quantified the detrimental effect of heatwaves on child mortality rates, with some exceptions.
“and multiple studies in low-income and middle-income settings [26][27][28] quantified the detrimental effect of heatwaves on child mortality rates, with some exceptions to this observed association.29”
From Climate change and child health: A scoping review and an expanded conceptual framework (2021) · cites this paper as [28]
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Self-citation
- Authors
- Egondi, T., Kyobutungi, C., Kovats, S., Muindi, K., Ettarh, R., & Rocklöv, J.
- Affiliations
- African Population and Health Research Center (KE)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Umeå University (SE)
- Corresponding author
- Egondi, Thaddaeus
- Venue
- Global Health Action
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2012-11-23
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 19065
- ISSN
- 1654-9716 (ISSN-L)
- 1654-9880
- PMC
- PMC3509073
- OpenAlex
- W2120434156
- Cited by
- 119
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 22 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 7 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 4.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Global Health Action (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- DiVA at Umeå University (Umeå University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Keywords
- weather and mortality, temperature, cold exposure, heat exposure, rainfall, informal settlements, Nairobi, non-communicable disease mortality, child mortality, pneumonia, acute infection, sex differences, age differences, climate change, urban health
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Cause of Death, Child, Child, Preschool, Cities, Female, Humans, Infant, Kenya, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Population Surveillance, Rain, Seasons, Sex Factors, Temperature, Weather, Poisson Distribution, Young Adult
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