Dynamic microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviours: survey and review
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ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the issues to be faced in attempting to create a microsimulation of health care demand, health care finance and the economic impact of health behaviour. These issues identified via an in-depth review of seven dynamic microsimulation models, selected from an initial set of 27 models in order to highlight the main differences in approaches and modelling options currently adopted. After presenting a brief description of each of the seven selected models, the main modelling approaches are summarized and critically appraised using five main distinguishing criteria. These criteria are the use of alignment techniques, model complexity (as reflected in the range of variables used), theoretical foundations, type of starting population, and the extent and detail of financial issues covered. Building upon this appraisal, the paper goes on to show how the ‘12 SAGE lessons ’ apply in the field of health care microsimulation. The trade-off between complexity and predictive power is shown to be key. Finally an appendix summarises the main features of all 27 of the dynamic microsimulation models originally surveyed.
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The cohort and individual-based state-transition frameworks focused on in this report do not capture interactions, model a single closed cohort, and allow transitions to occur only at specified time intervals.
“These frameworks do not capture interactions, model a single (closed) cohort, and allow transitions to occur only at specified time intervals.”
From State-Transition Modeling: A Report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force-3 (2012) · cites this paper as [9]
Section 3.4 (page unavailable) says discrete-time models typically use transition tables, which supports the point about transitions at specified intervals for that class of models. The paper does not establish that the cohort and individual-based frameworks in the claim lack interactions or model a single closed cohort; Section 2.4 instead describes a LifePaths simulation made up of multiple cases. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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- Authors
- Spielauer, M.
- Affiliations
- Statistics Canada (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Spielauer, Martin
- ORCID
- Spielauer, Martin
- Venue
- International Journal of Microsimulation
- Published
- 2007
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 35-53
- OpenAlex
- W1579478200
- Cited by
- 55
- References
- 13
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 2 · 2024: 2 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 2 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 6 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 2.39
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Healthcare Policy and Management
- Keywords
- dynamic microsimulation, health care demand, health care financing, health behavior, model complexity, predictive power, alignment techniques
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