A commentary on studies presenting projections of the future prevalence of dementia
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BACKGROUND: Population ageing over the first half of this century is likely to lead to dramatic increases in the prevalence of dementia. This will affect all regions of the world, but particularly developing regions. Dementia projections have been used extensively to support policy. It is therefore important these projections are as accurate as possible. DISCUSSION: In this paper we provide a commentary on studies projecting the future prevalence of dementia for the world or for individual continents. We identify some important limitations of the methods used in published projections and provide recommendations to improve the accuracy of future projections, and allow for the checking of the accuracy of the predictions. SUMMARY: Accurate projections of dementia incidence, at both the global and local level, are essential for healthcare planners.
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- Authors
- Norton, S., Matthews, F. E., & Brayne, C.
- Affiliations
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- MRC Biostatistics Unit (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Norton, Sam
- Venue
- BMC Public Health
- Published
- 2013-01-02
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1-1
- ISSN
- 1471-2458 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3547813
- OpenAlex
- W2066161981
- Cited by
- 634
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 66 · 2024: 55 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 80 · 2021: 70 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 37 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 70 · 2016: 54 · 2015: 29 · 2014: 29 · 2013: 15
- FWCI
- 30.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMC Public Health (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Repository@Hull (Worktribe) (University of Hull) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- National Institute for Health and Care Research
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
- Keywords
- dementia, dementia prevalence projections, population aging, projection accuracy, methodological limitations, health planning, developing regions
- MeSH terms
- Dementia, Forecasting, Humans, Research Design, Global Health, Reproducibility of Results, Prevalence, Guidelines as Topic, Biomedical Research
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