The DOI matches its Crossref record; 7 of the 7 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF THE MASSES AND RADII OF OTHER WORLDS
Open accessAbstract
Mass and radius are two of the most fundamental properties of an astronomical object. Increasingly, new planet discoveries are being announced with a measurement of one of these quantities, but not both. This has led to a growing need to forecast the missing quantity using the other, especially when predicting the detectability of certain follow-up observations. We present an unbiased forecasting model built upon a probabilistic mass–radius relation conditioned on a sample of 316 well-constrained objects. Our publicly available code, Forecaster, accounts for observational errors, hyper-parameter uncertainties, and the intrinsic dispersions observed in the calibration sample. By conditioning our model on a sample spanning dwarf planets to late-type stars, Forecaster can predict the mass (or radius) from the radius (or mass) for objects covering nine orders of magnitude in mass. Classification is naturally performed by our model, which uses four classes we label as Terran worlds, Neptunian worlds, Jovian worlds, and stars. Our classification identifies dwarf planets as merely low-mass Terrans (like the Earth) and brown dwarfs as merely high-mass Jovians (like Jupiter). We detect a transition in the mass–radius relation at M ⊕, which we associate with the divide between solid, Terran worlds and Neptunian worlds. This independent analysis adds further weight to the emerging consensus that rocky super-Earths represent a narrower region of parameter space than originally thought. Effectively, then, the Earth is the super-Earth we have been looking for.
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Cites
A new look at the statistical model identification
Akaike, H. (1974) · IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control · doi:10.1109/tac.1974.1100705 · Cited by 51,879
Equation of State Calculations by Fast Computing Machines
Metropolis, N., Rosenbluth, A. W., Rosenbluth, M. N., Teller, A. H., & Teller, E. (1953) · The Journal of Chemical Physics · doi:10.1063/1.1699114 · Cited by 37,192
UNDERSTANDING THE MASS-RADIUS RELATION FOR SUB-NEPTUNES: RADIUS AS A PROXY FOR COMPOSITION
Lopez, E. D., & Fortney, J. J. (2014) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.1088/0004-637x/792/1/1 · Cited by 722
The Evolution of L and T Dwarfs in Color‐Magnitude Diagrams
Saumon, D., & Marley, M. S. (2008) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.1086/592734 · Cited by 693 · cited 1×
“From stellar modeling, estimates of the minimum mass for hydrogen burning range from 0.07Me to 0.09Me (Burrows et al. 1993, 1997; Baraffe et al. 1998, 2003; Chabrier et al. 2000; Saumon & Marley 2008).”
MethodTHE MASS-RADIUS RELATION FOR 65 EXOPLANETS SMALLER THAN 4 EARTH RADII
Weiss, L. M., & Marcy, G. W. (2014) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.1088/2041-8205/783/1/l6 · Cited by 665
Stellar Spin-Orbit Misalignment in a Multiplanet System
Huber, D., Carter, J. A., Barbieri, M., Miglio, A., Deck, K. M., Fabrycky, D. C., Montet, B. T., Buchhave, L. A., Chaplin, W. J., Hekker, S., et al. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1242066 · Cited by 315
Transiting hot Jupiters from WASP-South, Euler and TRAPPIST: WASP-95b to WASP-101b
Hellier, C., Anderson, D. R., Cameron, A. C., Delrez, L., Gillon, M., Jehin, E., Lendl, M., Maxted, P. F. L., Pepe, F., Pollacco, D., et al. (2014) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stu410 · Cited by 135
Cited by
Kempton, E. M.-R., Bean, J. L., Louie, D. R., Deming, D., Koll, D. D. B., Mansfield, M., Christiansen, J. L., López-Morales, M., Swain, M. R., Zellem, R. T., et al. (2018) · Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific · doi:10.1088/1538-3873/aadf6f · Cited by 587
Weiss, L. M., Marcy, G. W., Petigura, E. A., Fulton, B. J., Howard, A. W., Winn, J. N., Isaacson, H. T., Morton, T. D., Hirsch, L. A., Sinukoff, E. J., et al. (2018) · The Astronomical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-3881/aa9ff6 · Cited by 328
Searching the Entirety of Kepler Data. II. Occurrence Rate Estimates for FGK Stars
Kunimoto, M., & Matthews, J. M. (2020) · The Astronomical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ab88b0 · Cited by 139
Evidence for Two Hot-Jupiter Formation Paths
Nelson, B. E., Ford, E. B., & Rasio, F. A. (2017) · The Astronomical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-3881/aa82b3 · Cited by 36
A search for transiting planets in the β Pictoris system
Mol Lous, M., Weenk, E., Kenworthy, M. A., Zwintz, K., & Kuschnig, R. (2018) · Astronomy & Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201731941 · Cited by 10
Metadata
- Authors
- Chen, J., & Kipping, D.
- Venue
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Publisher
- American Astronomical Society
- Published
- 2016-12-27
- Volume
- 834
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 17
- ISSN
- 0004-637X (ISSN-L)
- 1538-4357
- OpenAlex
- W2333821472
- Cited by
- 628
- References
- 7
- FWCI
- 21.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- Chen, J., & Kipping, D. (2017). PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF THE MASSES AND RADII OF OTHER WORLDS. The Astrophysical Journal. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/834/1/17
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